Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,251–8,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8251	TERRACE OF KISSIMMEE, THE	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	KISSIMMEE	120	—
8252	The Laurels of Sandy Creek	0.1%	44.6	D	MI	Wayland	99	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
8253	ORMOND NURSING & CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	LA	DESTREHAN	146	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
8254	THE SPRINGS OF HILLCREST	0.1%	44.6	A	AR	PRESCOTT	90	BLUE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
8255	ST FRANCOIS MANOR	0.1%	44.6	D	MO	FARMINGTON	118	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8256	AUBURN SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	SALEM	44	—
8257	SCIOTO POINTE	0.1%	44.6	A	OH	COLUMBUS	99	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
8258	Lewis Park Post Acute	0.1%	44.6	F	TN	HOHENWALD	131	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
8259	VIVO HEALTHCARE WINTER HAVEN	0.1%	44.6	C	FL	WINTER HAVEN	120	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC
8260	OAKCREST NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	AUSTIN	0	—
8261	MOUNTAIN VIEW REHABILITATION AND SENIOR LIVING CTR	0.1%	44.6	C	PA	COAL TOWNSHIP	271	—
8262	ARK HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION AT GOVERNOR'S HO	0.1%	44.6	B	CT	SIMSBURY	70	—
8263	Nexus Pavilion at Belleville	0.1%	44.6	C	IL	BELLEVILLE	180	—
8264	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF FT PAYNE	0.1%	44.6	A	AL	FORT PAYNE	123	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
8265	LITTLE NECK CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	NY	LITTLE NECK	120	EMM HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
8266	Hickory Falls Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	44.6	B	NC	Granite Falls	120	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
8267	MAJESTIC CARE OF FAIRFIELD LLC	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	FAIRFIELD	200	MAJESTIC MANAGEMENT LLC
8268	VALLEY VIEW VILLA	0.1%	44.6	D	CO	FORT MORGAN	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8269	MADISON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	MADISON	60	SEAM TRUST
8270	ALARIS HEALTH AT WEST ORANGE	0.1%	44.6	F	NJ	WEST ORANGE	120	—
8271	San Rafael Nursing and Rehabiliation	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	Corpus Chrisit	0	BOOKER HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8272	Carolina Rivers Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	B	NC	Jacksonville	120	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
8273	Majestic Care of Hopemont	0.1%	44.6	F	WV	TERRA ALTA	98	—
8274	FAIRACRES MANOR, INC.	0.1%	44.6	A	CO	GREELEY	116	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
8275	Oak Park Place of Nakoma	0.1%	44.6	B	WI	Madison	33	—
8276	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF HATTIESBURG	0.1%	44.6	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	120	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
8277	Kirkwood Manor	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	New Braunfels	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8278	ACCESS MENTAL HEALTH	0.1%	44.6	F	KS	PEABODY	45	—
8279	RIVERWOOD CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	240	LCE PARTNERS LLC
8280	VERSAILLES REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	OH	VERSAILLES	112	FEJCC TRUST
8281	VALLEY VIEW CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	CO	CANON CITY	60	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
8282	VAN HEALTHCARE	0.1%	44.6	A	TX	VAN	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8283	Vineyard Hills Health Center	0.1%	44.6	B	CA	Templeton	99	COMPASS HEALTH INC
8284	LINCOLN CARE AND REHAB	0.1%	44.6	A	KS	WICHITA	45	BARRES LLC
8285	Rawlins Rehabilitation and Wellness	0.1%	44.6	C	WY	Rawlins	62	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
8286	RIPLEY CROSSING	0.1%	44.6	C	IN	MILAN	100	MAJOR HOSPITAL
8287	HIGHLAND SQUARE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	C	OH	AKRON	91	—
8288	LOYALHANNA CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	PA	LATROBE	143	—
8289	COMFORT CREEK NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	GA	WADLEY	98	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
8290	MAPLES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, THE	0.1%	44.6	B	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	RHC OPERATIONS INC
8291	COURT HOUSE MANOR	0.1%	44.6	A	OH	WASHINGTON COURT HOU	99	HCF INC
8292	Carrollton Crossing of Journey LLC	0.1%	44.6	D	GA	CARROLLTON	159	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
8293	MILAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	MO	MILAN	100	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
8294	SAN LEANDRO HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	CA	SAN LEANDRO	62	HYCARE INC
8295	GREEN MEADOWS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	PA	MALVERN	184	—
8296	MAGNOLIA RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	FL	GAINESVILLE	223	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
8297	ROCKDALE ESTATES & REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	ROCKDALE	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8298	GREENVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	MO	GREENVILLE	60	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
8299	Sante Of Surprise	0.1%	44.6	A	AZ	SURPRISE	70	MUNCH TOOKE LLC
8300	OAK CREST VILLAGE	0.1%	44.6	B	MD	PARKVILLE	80	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC

Showing 8,251–8,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.