Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,751–8,800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8751	WISCONSIN DELLS HEALTH SERVICES	0.1%	41.8	B	WI	WISCONSIN DELLS	90	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8752	THE HIGHLANDS GUEST CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	TX	DALLAS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8753	CHAPEL MANOR	0.1%	41.8	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	238	—
8754	Sherwood Nursing & Rehabilitation Center, Inc	0.1%	41.8	B	AR	Sherwood	98	—
8755	PINE MEADOWS HEALTH CARE	0.1%	41.8	B	TN	BOLIVAR	134	B&Y TRUST
8756	LEE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	VA	PENNINGTON GAP	110	DJ PETRINE LLC
8757	OAK CREEK TERRACE INC	0.1%	41.8	A	OH	KETTERING	69	CONCEPT REHAB INC
8758	Avir at Weston	0.1%	41.8	D	TX	Temple	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8759	Windsor Hills Nursing Center	0.1%	41.8	C	OK	Oklahoma City	112	LEP HOLDINGS LLC
8760	ST MARYS HOSPITAL FOR CHILDREN	0.1%	41.8	B	NY	BAYSIDE	124	—
8761	PLEASANTON NORTH NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	PLEASANTON	0	MAVERICK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8762	MOUNT VERNON NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	C	IN	MOUNT VERNON	66	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
8763	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE FOREST LAKE	0.1%	41.8	A	FL	APOPKA	222	SEAM TRUST
8764	Ambassador Manor Nursing Center	0.1%	41.8	B	OK	Tulsa	171	BRIDGES ESOP INC
8765	Quinn Meadows Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.1%	41.8	A	ID	Pocatello	41	TANABELL HEALTH SERVICES INC
8766	AUTUMN RIDGE REHABILITATION CENTRE	0.1%	41.8	B	IN	WABASH	75	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
8767	TLC NURSING CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	AL	ONEONTA	103	QUALITY CARE REHAB INC
8768	BRIAR HILL REST HOME	0.1%	41.8	B	MS	FLORENCE	60	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
8769	DUQUOIN NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	41.8	B	IL	DU QUOIN	72	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
8770	Medilodge of Campus Area	0.1%	41.8	C	MI	East Lansing	102	B&Y TRUST
8771	Boonespring Transitional Care Center, LLC	0.1%	41.8	B	KY	Union	143	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
8772	BLUE PALMS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF DEL	0.1%	41.8	B	FL	DELAND	60	HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LLC
8773	Coronado Care Center	0.1%	41.8	C	NM	Portales	80	FIRST SWEETZER HOLDINGS LLC
8774	LEWIS & CLARK GARDENS	0.1%	41.8	F	MO	SAINT CHARLES	142	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8775	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE LAKEWOOD	0.1%	41.8	B	OH	LAKEWOOD	114	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
8776	MELBOURNE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	FL	MELBOURNE	138	FDZ CONSULTING LLC
8777	Aperion Care Burbank	0.1%	41.8	C	IL	BURBANK	56	YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
8778	BRIA OF CAHOKIA	0.1%	41.8	F	IL	CAHOKIA	133	—
8779	AUGUST HEALTHCARE AT ILIFF	0.1%	41.8	A	VA	DUNN LORING	130	—
8780	Windsor Healthcare Residence	0.1%	41.8	D	TX	Groesbeck	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8781	Frontier Rehabilitation and Extended Care	0.1%	41.8	B	WA	LONGVIEW	140	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
8782	THE GARDENS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	CA	NORTHRIDGE	45	—
8783	Avir at Snyder	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	SNYDER	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8784	HARLEM CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION, L L	0.1%	41.8	C	NY	NEW YORK	200	ALLURE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8785	Mount St Rita Health Centre	0.1%	41.8	C	RI	Cumberland	98	COVENANT HEALTH
8786	TREASURE ISLE CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	FL	NORTH BAY VILLAGE	176	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8787	HILLTOP SKILLED NSG & REHAB	0.1%	41.8	F	IL	CHARLESTON	108	FEJCC TRUST
8788	WEST CARROLL CARE CENTER, INC	0.1%	41.8	B	LA	OAK GROVE	80	—
8789	Litchford Falls Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	D	NC	Raleigh	90	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
8790	PARK LANE POST ACUTE LLC	0.1%	41.8	B	PA	WEST CHESTER	68	BUAH TRUST
8791	Ontario Healthcare Center	0.1%	41.8	C	CA	Ontario	59	CAMBRIDGE HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
8792	LAKEVIEW HEALTHCARE AND REHAB	0.1%	41.8	B	PA	SMETHPORT	34	BONAMOUR HEALTH GROUP LLC
8793	INSPIRATION HILLS REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8794	ROSWELL CENTER FOR NURSING AND HEALING LLC	0.1%	41.8	D	GA	ROSWELL	268	EMPIRE CARE CENTERS LLC
8795	PEARL OF ST CHARLES, THE	0.1%	41.8	D	IL	ST CHARLES	109	REG 2018 IRREVOCABLE TRUST U A D 1 1 18
8796	VILLA MARIA NURSING CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	FL	NORTH MIAMI	212	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
8797	GRACE POINTE CONT CARE SR CAMPUS, SKILLED NURSING	0.1%	41.8	A	CO	GREELEY	53	CONTINUUM HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
8798	HAWTHORNE HOUSE	0.1%	41.8	B	ME	FREEPORT	83	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
8799	OAKBROOK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	SC	SUMMERVILLE	88	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
8800	Lakeside Health & Rehab Center	0.1%	41.8	A	NC	Huntersville	114	BNV DYNASTY LLC

Showing 8,751–8,800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.