Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,001–9,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9001	VANCREST HEALTH CARE CTR OF HO	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	HOLGATE	60	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
9002	TOPSIDE MANOR INC	0.1%	38.3	A	KS	GOODLAND	45	RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
9003	CLEAR CREEK CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	CO	WESTMINSTER	80	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
9004	Edgewater Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	67	COLAVRIA HOSPITALITY INC
9005	OSAGE BEACH REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	D	MO	OSAGE BEACH	94	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
9006	Avir at Waco	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	WACO	0	MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9007	THOMSON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	A	GA	THOMSON	150	PEACH HEALTH GROUP LLC
9008	CARRIAGE HILL BETHESDA	0.1%	38.3	C	MD	BETHESDA	108	VIERRA COMMUNITIES LLC
9009	FAULKTON SENIOR LIVING	0.1%	38.3	A	SD	FAULKTON	41	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9010	ANDERSON MILL CENTER FOR NURSING AND HEALING LLC	0.1%	38.3	A	GA	AUSTELL	170	EMPIRE CARE CENTERS LLC
9011	Harris Health Center LLC	0.1%	38.3	B	RI	East Providence	31	—
9012	LUTHER WOODS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	PA	HATBORO	140	—
9013	Rockdale Healthcare Center	0.1%	38.3	A	GA	CONYERS	103	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
9014	TALLADEGA HEALTHCARE CENTER, INC	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	TALLADEGA	234	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
9015	SOUTHERN HILLS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	C	LA	SHREVEPORT	101	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
9016	WALNUT CREEK NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	38.3	B	PA	ERIE	115	ISKEB 2024 TRUST
9017	The Palms At Florence	0.1%	38.3	B	SC	Florence	163	DASAY 2019 TRUST
9018	Lone Star Ranch Rehabilitaion and Healthcare Cente	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	Kingsville	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9019	The Terrace Transitional	0.1%	38.3	C	UT	Ogden	120	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
9020	Stallings Court Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	B	TX	Nacogdoches	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9021	Friendship Village Of Bloomington	0.1%	38.3	C	MN	BLOOMINGTON	66	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
9022	GLADSTONE SUB-ACUTE AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	GLENDORA	118	—
9023	NEURORESTORATIVE COLORADO	0.1%	38.3	B	CO	LITTLETON	36	CAREMERIDIAN LLC
9024	KENSINGTON PLACE NRSG & REHAB	0.1%	38.3	D	IL	CHICAGO	155	WISSATI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
9025	CENTER AT EDEN HILL, LLC	0.1%	38.3	A	DE	DOVER	80	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
9026	GARDNERVILLE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	D	NV	GARDNERVILLE	60	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
9027	Adel Acres	0.1%	38.3	C	IA	Adel	50	GST SNF LLC
9028	BERTRAM NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	BERTRAM	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9029	Lillington Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	C	NC	Lillington	129	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
9030	Park Manor Bee Cave	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	Bee Cave	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9031	ARBOR TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.1%	38.3	C	IN	RICHMOND	101	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
9032	FAIRVIEW COMMONS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	D	MA	GREAT BARRINGTON	146	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
9033	Brooken Hill Health And Rehab, Llc	0.1%	38.3	A	AR	FORT SMITH	125	—
9034	AVIATA AT BRYAN DAIRY	0.1%	38.3	F	FL	LARGO	158	—
9035	WESTERN HILLS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	140	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9036	RIVER PLACE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	MS	AMORY	60	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
9037	The Villa at Silverbell Estates	0.1%	38.3	C	MI	Orion	106	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
9038	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT OAK MANOR	0.1%	38.3	C	MD	BURTONSVILLE	145	M MEISELS FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
9039	ACCELA REHAB AND CARE CENTER AT SOMERTON	0.1%	38.3	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	225	—
9040	THE SPRINGS OF MINE CREEK	0.1%	38.3	B	AR	NASHVILLE	78	WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
9041	VILLA SPRINGFIELD REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CE	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	SPRINGFIELD	110	FEJCC TRUST
9042	MANATAWNY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	D	PA	POTTSTOWN	133	LIONS HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
9043	Focused Care at Midland	0.1%	38.3	F	TX	Midland	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
9044	ELEVATE CARE ABINGTON	0.1%	38.3	D	IL	GLENVIEW	192	YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
9045	OC Milford Gardens LLC	0.1%	38.3	F	MA	MILFORD	135	AMNH LLC
9046	THE LODGE OF SAGINAW HEALTH AND WELLNESS	0.1%	38.3	F	TX	SAGINAW	0	ML LLC
9047	WARNER ROBINS REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	GA	WARNER ROBINS	126	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
9048	ALWYN C CASHE STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.1%	38.3	C	FL	ORLANDO	112	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
9049	Hawkeye Care Center Dubuque	0.1%	38.3	B	IA	Asbury	80	RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
9050	PLEASANT VIEW CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	NH	CONCORD	176	PERIGROVE 1014 LLC

Showing 9,001–9,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.