Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,051–9,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9051	Mission Park Healthcare Center	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	Santa Barbara	138	AHM TRUST
9052	Ohio Valley Manor Care Center	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	RIPLEY	140	—
9053	Landmark of Cicero Rehabilitation and Nursing Cent	0.1%	38.3	F	IL	CICERO	485	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
9054	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF CLARKSVILLE	0.1%	38.3	C	TN	CLARKSVILLE	120	WHEATEN LLC
9055	The Homestead of Denison	0.1%	38.3	F	TX	Denison	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9056	CENTURY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	CENTURY	88	SUMMIT CARE II INC
9057	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF SPRINGHILL	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	MOBILE	46	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
9058	Katahdin Health Care LLC	0.1%	38.3	A	ME	Millinocket	36	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
9059	AVIATA AT LAKESIDE OAKS	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	DUNEDIN	93	—
9060	FIRCREST NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	38.3	B	WA	SEATTLE	110	—
9061	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - MAPLEWOOD	0.1%	38.3	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	71	SANFORD
9062	PARADIGM AT FIRST COLONY	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	MISSOURI CITY	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
9063	COLONIAL PINES HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	SAN AUGUSTINE	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
9064	Yadkin Nursing and Care Center	0.1%	38.3	B	NC	Yadkinville	147	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
9065	Crestwood Care Center	0.1%	38.3	F	OH	SHELBY	130	RRW LLC
9066	ORRVILLE POINTE	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	ORRVILLE	47	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
9067	SOUTH HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	101	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
9068	ANCHOR LODGE NURSING HOME INC	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	LORAIN	110	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
9069	BAY POINTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	A	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	112	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
9070	LANESSA EXTENDED CARE	0.1%	38.3	C	MA	WEBSTER	96	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
9071	MELBOURNE TERRACE REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	MELBOURNE	179	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
9072	BRINTON MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	PA	GLEN MILLS	92	ENS HOLDINGS LLC
9073	DIVERSICARE OF GREENSBORO	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	GREENSBORO	97	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
9074	BROOKSIDE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	CINCINNATI	105	MINORITY REPORT LLC
9075	Mt. Tabor Health & Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	C	OR	PORTLAND	120	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
9076	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING MOBERLY	0.1%	38.3	D	MO	MOBERLY	101	CHP SNFCO LLC
9077	Cheraw Healthcare	0.1%	38.3	C	SC	Cheraw	120	—
9078	INFINITY CARE OF EAST LOS ANGELES	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	—
9079	BETH ABRAHAM CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	B	NY	BRONX	448	LIGHT OPERATIONAL HOLDINGS ASSOCIATES LL
9080	North Long Beach Post Acute	0.1%	38.3	C	CA	LONG BEACH	120	9560 PICO LLC
9081	Jag Healthcare Mansfield	0.1%	38.3	D	OH	MANSFIELD	66	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
9082	GREENE ACRES REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	A	VA	STANARDSVILLE	90	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
9083	THE BLOSSOMS AT MIDTOWN REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	AR	LITTLE ROCK	154	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
9084	THE WATERS OF UNION CITY , LLC	0.1%	38.3	B	TN	UNION CITY	80	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
9085	ARBORS AT MINERVA	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	MINERVA	92	B&Y TRUST
9086	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF EUFAULA	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	EUFAULA	180	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
9087	PARK PLACE TRANSITIONAL CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	B	MT	GREAT FALLS	189	AJC HEALTHCARE LLC
9088	OAK HILL HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	C	FL	BROOKSVILLE	109	TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC
9089	DEBARY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	DEBARY	120	BLUE SPRING HEALTHCARE PARTNERS LLC
9090	Gateway Vista	0.1%	38.3	B	NE	Lincoln	80	PARAGON MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
9091	VISTA MANOR NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	SAN JOSE	99	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
9092	CENTRAL NURSING HOME	0.1%	38.3	D	IL	CHICAGO	245	TEN CHICAGO LLC
9093	River Hills Village in Keokuk	0.1%	38.3	A	IA	Keokuk	84	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
9094	PINELLAS PARK FL OPCO, LLC	0.1%	38.3	D	FL	PINELLAS PARK	120	TAMPA 5 FL HOLDCO LLC
9095	Hamilton Respiratory and Nursing Center	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	HAMILTON	80	LAUREL HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS INC
9096	EDENBROOK OF EDINA	0.1%	38.3	B	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	80	—
9097	COURTYARD AT SEASONS	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	CINCINNATI	45	NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE INCOME OPERATING PARTNERSHIP LP
9098	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF KING CITY	0.1%	38.3	B	OR	TIGARD	148	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
9099	DELMAR GARDENS OF OVERLAND PARK	0.1%	38.3	C	KS	OVERLAND PARK	120	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
9100	Elmwood Manor Nursing Home	0.1%	38.3	B	OK	Wewoka	46	—

Showing 9,051–9,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.