Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,401–9,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9401	Morrell Nursing Center	0.1%	38.3	A	SC	Hartsville	154	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
9402	Mecklenburg Heath and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	C	NC	Charlotte	100	—
9403	BOULEVARD REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	BOYNTON BEACH	167	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
9404	PALM GARDEN OF ORLANDO	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	ORLANDO	132	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
9405	THE MADISON HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	38.3	A	MS	MADISON	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
9406	CROSS COUNTRY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	TX	BROWNWOOD	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9407	Oakview Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	C	KY	Calvert City	100	WHEATEN LLC
9408	Edgecombe Health Center by Harborview	0.1%	38.3	B	NC	Tarboro	159	CL 2022 IRRV TR
9409	Pinnacle Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	B	UT	Price	100	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
9410	Marshall Manor West	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	Marshall	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9411	HOT SPRINGS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	MT	HOT SPRINGS	40	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
9412	AVAMERE REHABILITATION AT RIDGEMONT	0.1%	38.3	C	WA	PORT ORCHARD	96	NAIR LLC
9413	Legend Oaks Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center -	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	Gladewater	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9414	Thomas Upham House	0.1%	38.3	B	MA	MEDFIELD	42	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
9415	Mount Carmel Bluffs	0.1%	38.3	B	IA	Dubuque	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
9416	PALM GARDEN OF AVENTURA	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	NORTH MIAMI BEACH	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
9417	HAVENS AT PENSACOLA, THE	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	PENSACOLA	120	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC
9418	GARNET HILL REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	WYLIE	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9419	HAYS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	SAN MARCOS	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
9420	Mountain Manor of Paintsville	0.1%	38.3	A	KY	Paintsville	126	—
9421	MARIA REGINA REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	B	NY	BRENTWOOD	188	EMM HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
9422	WOODS EDGE REHAB AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	CINCINNATI	93	HCWE HOLDINGS LLC
9423	AVENTURA AT HUMILITY HOUSE	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	AUSTINTOWN	70	EOM HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LLC
9424	HARTFORD HEALTH CARE	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	HARTFORD	86	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
9425	Great Lakes Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	C	MI	Saginaw	55	—
9426	AVANTE AT OCALA, INC	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	OCALA	133	AG HOLDINGS INC
9427	ADAIR VILLAGE	0.1%	38.3	D	MO	CLINTON	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
9428	LIFE CARE CENTER OF GREENEVILLE	0.1%	38.3	B	TN	GREENEVILLE	161	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9429	THE PLAZA AT LUBBOCK	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	LUBBOCK	0	STONEGATE SENIOR LIVING LP
9430	BIRCHWOOD CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	HAMILTON	75	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
9431	MERCER MANOR REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	D	IL	ALEDO	92	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
9432	STONEBRIDGE NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	38.3	C	IL	BENTON	80	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
9433	Bennington Health & Rehab	0.1%	38.3	D	VT	Bennington	91	—
9434	WESLEYAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	F	IN	MARION	139	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
9435	ST JOSEPH REHAB & NURSING CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	MA	DORCHESTER	123	WELLINGTON HEALTHCARE LLC
9436	BAYSIDE OF POQUOSON HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	38.3	A	VA	POQUOSON	60	TRIO HEALTHCARE LLC
9437	THREE RIVERS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	CINCINNATI	119	MINORITY REPORT LLC
9438	AUTUMN HILLS CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	NILES	120	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC
9439	Liberty Commons Nursing & Rehab Center of Southpor	0.1%	38.3	A	NC	Southport	99	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
9440	CHECOTAH NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	OK	CHECOTAH	82	ABBOTT FAMILY LLC
9441	OAKS AT AVON	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	AVON PARK	104	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
9442	Kerr Lake Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	B	NC	Henderson	92	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
9443	COUNTRY MANOR LA MESA HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	LA MESA	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
9444	AURORA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	C	MO	ROLLA	116	VHS MO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
9445	SAINT THERESE AT OXBOW LAKE	0.1%	38.3	A	MN	BROOKLYN PARK	64	SAINT THERESE
9446	Pointe Coupee Healthcare	0.1%	38.3	B	LA	New Roads	120	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
9447	Valley Falls Terrace	0.1%	38.3	A	SC	Spartanburg	88	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
9448	KADIMA REHABILITATION & NURSING AT HARMONY	0.1%	38.3	C	PA	HARMONY	115	KADIMA HEALTHCARE GROUP INC
9449	COMPLETE CARE AT OCEAN GROVE LLC	0.1%	38.3	C	NJ	OCEAN GROVE	147	SMS 2021 TRUST
9450	WESTGATE CENTER FOR REHAB & ALZHEIMERS CARE	0.1%	38.3	A	ME	BANGOR	65	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012

Showing 9,401–9,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.