Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,451–9,500

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9451	LEBANON VETERANS HOME	0.1%	38.3	A	OR	LEBANON	154	WESTCARE MANAGEMENT INC
9452	WASHINGTON CENTER FOR REHAB AND HEALTHCARE	0.1%	38.3	B	NY	ARGYLE	122	—
9453	Bayview Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	A	NC	New Bern	60	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
9454	Wylie Oaks Healthcare and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	WYLIE	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9455	Midwestern Healthcare Center	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	Wichita Falls	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9456	MAPLE GROVE NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	VA	LEBANON	60	MCCLINTIC OPERATIONS HOLDCO II LLC
9457	Brightwater Skilled Nursing Center	0.1%	38.3	B	SC	Myrtle Beach	67	MAXWELL GROUP INC
9458	ROSCOE REGIONAL REHAB & RESIDENTIAL H C F	0.1%	38.3	B	NY	ROSCOE	85	—
9459	La Jolla Post-Acute	0.1%	38.3	C	CA	LA JOLLA	161	COVENANT CARE LLC
9460	Benedictine Health Center Of Minneapolis	0.1%	38.3	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	90	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
9461	TAYLORVILLE SKLD NUR & REHAB	0.1%	38.3	C	IL	TAYLORVILLE	96	FEJCC TRUST
9462	BROWN NURSING HOME	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	ALEXANDER CITY	68	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
9463	PREFERRED CARE AT MERCER	0.1%	38.3	B	NJ	EWING	100	—
9464	SOUTH MOUNTAIN HC	0.1%	38.3	B	NJ	VAUXHALL	195	—
9465	WHITTIER HOSPITAL MEDICAL CTR D/P SNF	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	WHITTIER	22	—
9466	Cornerstone at the Ranch	0.1%	38.3	B	LA	Lafayette	148	—
9467	The Carrolton of Nash	0.1%	38.3	B	NC	Rocky Mount	141	CARROLTON FACILITY MANAGEMENT LLC
9468	LAUREL COURT	0.1%	38.3	A	TX	ALVIN	0	SWEENY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9469	NSPIRE HEALTHCARE PLANTATION	0.1%	38.3	C	FL	PLANTATION	120	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
9470	Elevate Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	D	NC	Asheville	120	PISGAH HOLDCO LLC
9471	SUNTERRA SPRINGS DARDENNE PRAIRIE	0.1%	38.3	D	MO	DARDENNE PRAIRIE	38	BALL VENTURES LLC
9472	AROOSTOOK HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	ME	MARS HILL	66	—
9473	GARDEN SPRING REHAB AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	D	PA	WILLOW GROVE	173	ENS HOLDINGS LLC
9474	COMPLETE CARE AT GREEN ACRES	0.1%	38.3	B	NJ	TOMS RIVER	167	EEF CAPITAL LLC
9475	PLEASANTVIEW CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	PARMA	162	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
9476	PALM GARDEN OF SUN CITY	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	SUN CITY CENTER	132	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
9477	BELLA VISTA HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	LEMON GROVE	99	—
9478	Signature Healthcare of Glasgow Rehab & Wellness C	0.1%	38.3	A	KY	Glasgow	68	WHEATEN LLC
9479	Bloomfield Care Center	0.0%	33.6	C	IA	Bloomfield	91	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
9480	WILLOWS AT BOWLING GREEN THE	0.0%	33.6	A	OH	BOWLING GREEN	50	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
9481	TULSA NURSING CENTER	0.0%	33.6	D	OK	TULSA	104	STONEGATE SENIOR LIVING LP
9482	SKYVIEW REHAB AND NURSING	0.0%	33.6	D	CT	WALLINGFORD	97	—
9483	BRIDGEWAY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	33.6	D	AL	PHENIX CITY	86	GNH IRRV TR
9484	Brenham Healthcare Center	0.0%	33.6	F	TX	Brenham	62	—
9485	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE AT FOREST HILL	0.0%	33.6	C	OH	ST CLAIRSVILLE	88	OHIO CARE SKLD LLC
9486	HARBORVIEW HEALTH CENTER OF AUGUSTA	0.0%	33.6	B	GA	AUGUSTA	120	CL 2022 IRRV TR
9487	MANDERLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.0%	33.6	B	IN	OSGOOD	71	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
9488	JERSEY SHORE POST ACUTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.0%	33.6	C	NJ	NEPTUNE	105	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
9489	WILLOWBEND HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.0%	33.6	B	AR	MARION	140	JEJ ASSETS LP
9490	MT PLEASANT HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.0%	33.6	B	TN	MOUNT PLEASANT	72	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
9491	SKYTOP VIEW REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	33.6	A	FL	CLERMONT	30	ORLANDO HEALTH INC
9492	PARK MANOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.0%	33.6	A	AL	NORTHPORT	152	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
9493	MEADOWBROOK MANOR - NAPERVILLE	0.0%	33.6	D	IL	NAPERVILLE	249	DOROTHY VANGEL QSS TRUST
9494	VALLEY SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.0%	33.6	B	CA	MODESTO	70	KALESTA HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
9495	Hazelhurst Court Care and Rehabilitation Center	0.0%	33.6	C	GA	HAZLEHURST	73	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
9496	The Estates At Twin Rivers Llc	0.0%	33.6	B	MN	ANOKA	50	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
9497	PLEASANT VALLEY REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.0%	33.6	C	AR	LITTLE ROCK	97	JEJ ASSETS LP
9498	REHABILITATION CENTER AT JEFFERSON HILLS, THE	0.0%	33.6	B	PA	JEFFERSON HILLS	50	—
9499	SILVER STATE PEDIATRIC SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.0%	33.6	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	36	—
9500	CORVALLIS MANOR	0.0%	33.6	C	OR	CORVALLIS	135	VOLARE HEALTH LLC

Showing 9,451–9,500 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.