Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

10,001–10,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
10001	CLAYSTONE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	ENNIS	—	—
10002	ST MARY'S HEALTHCARE T C DEMONSTRATION PROJECT	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	AMSTERDAM	—	—
10003	Hi'olani Care Center at Kahala Nui	0.2%	37.0	A	HI	Honolulu	20	—
10004	SAINT ANNS NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	PANHANDLE	0	—
10005	Community Medical Center Tcu	0.2%	37.0	A	NJ	TOMS RIVER	25	RWJ BARNABAS HEALTH INC
10006	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - GLENWOOD LAKEVIEW	0.2%	37.0	—	MN	GLENWOOD	0	—
10007	BRIARWOOD CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER, THE	0.2%	37.0	—	NJ	SOUTH AMBOY	0	—
10008	HALIFAX REGIONAL HOSPITAL SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	VA	SOUTH BOSTON	—	—
10009	GILMAN CARE CENTER, LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	WI	GILMAN	—	—
10010	HUDSON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	SD	HUDSON	—	—
10011	MISSION BAY CONVALESCENT HOSPI	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	—	—
10012	JACKSON MEMORIAL PERDUE MEDICAL CENTER	0.2%	37.0	B	FL	CUTLER BAY	163	PUBLIC HEALTH TRUST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY FLORIDA
10013	COLONIAL HEIGHTS	0.2%	37.0	—	MA	LAWRENCE	—	—
10014	PARKVIEW CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	PARIS	—	—
10015	FOREST HILLS OF DC	0.2%	37.0	B	DC	WASHINGTON	55	—
10016	TOPEKA COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	KS	TOPEKA	—	—
10017	PARK PLAZA	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	MART	—	—
10018	OUR LADY OF THE LAKE HOSPITAL- SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	LA	BATON ROUGE	—	—
10019	DAHL MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	MT	EKALAKA	—	—
10020	OHIO LIVING LAKE VISTA	0.2%	37.0	A	OH	CORTLAND	39	—
10021	Wesley Commons Health And Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	37.0	A	SC	Greenwood	80	—
10022	CARE LIVING CENTER OF EDMOND	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	EDMOND	0	—
10023	WINDSOR GARDENS	0.2%	37.0	—	KY	BARDSTOWN	0	—
10024	MIAMI HAVEN NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	CLEVES	0	—
10025	HILLTOP HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	CT	ANSONIA	—	—
10026	APPLING NURSING AND REHABILITATION PAVILION	0.2%	37.0	B	GA	BAXLEY	101	—
10027	RESIDENCE AT GREYSTONE, THE	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	CINCINNATI	—	—
10028	THE MILLENNIUM INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCE NURSING CARE	0.2%	37.0	—	PR	RIO PIEDRAS	0	—
10029	SHAMROCK NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	SHAMROCK	—	—
10030	ROCKFORD NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	ROCKFORD	0	—
10031	WHISPERING OAKS CARE CTR	0.2%	37.0	—	WI	PESHTIGO	0	—
10032	ROCKDALE RESIDENCE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	ROCKDALE	0	—
10033	OUR LADY OF MERCY HEALTH CARE	0.2%	37.0	—	MA	WORCESTER	—	—
10034	HELIA HEALTHCARE OF ROLLA	0.2%	37.0	—	MO	ROLLA	—	—
10035	LAKESHORE VILLAS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	FL	TAMPA	0	—
10036	Focused Care at Allenbrook	0.2%	37.0	C	TX	Baytown	120	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
10037	WARSAW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	VA	WARSAW	—	—
10038	EXETER HEALTHCARE	0.2%	37.0	—	NH	EXETER	—	—
10039	BLUEPOINT NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MD	BALTIMORE	—	—
10040	HEYWOOD TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MA	GARDNER	—	—
10041	KLAMATH REGIONAL REHAB CT	0.2%	37.0	—	OR	KLAMATH FALLS	—	—
10042	MARY GREELEY MEDICAL CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	IA	AMES	—	—
10043	MEDILODGE OF BLOOMFIELD HILLS, INC	0.2%	37.0	—	MI	BLOOMFIELD HILLS	0	—
10044	SNYDER VILLAGE	0.2%	37.0	A	IL	METAMORA	84	—
10045	HEARTWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER INC	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	TAYLOR	—	—
10046	CALERA MANOR, LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	CALERA	0	—
10047	Breckinridge Place	0.2%	37.0	A	KY	Morganfield	24	—
10048	PERRY MEMORIAL HOSP SNU	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	PRINCETON	0	—
10049	WELLINGTON MANOR NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	WELLINGTON	0	—
10050	HEALTH CENTRAL PARK	0.2%	37.0	C	FL	WINTER GARDEN	218	ORLANDO HEALTH INC

Showing 10,001–10,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.