Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,951–10,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9951	MERCY HOSPITAL SPRINGFIELD	0.2%	37.0	—	MO	SPRINGFIELD	0	—
9952	SAINT CATHERINE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	PA	ASHLAND	—	—
9953	LIBERTY NURSING CENTER OF TOLEDO, INC	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	TOLEDO	—	—
9954	LU ANN NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	IN	NAPPANEE	—	—
9955	KINDRED HOSPITAL PITTSBURGH - NORTH SHORE	0.2%	37.0	—	PA	ALLEGHENY	—	—
9956	Jewish Home of Rochester	0.2%	37.0	A	NY	Rochester	362	—
9957	PENNSYLVANIA HOSPITAL SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	PA	PHILADELPHIA	—	—
9958	CONTINUUM REHABILITATION HOSPITAL OF NORTH TEXAS L	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	FLOWER MOUND	—	—
9959	ST JAMES NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	D	MI	DETROIT	143	—
9960	ARISTOCRAT WEST REHAB AND HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	CLEVELAND	—	—
9961	KATYVILLE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	KATY	—	—
9962	CHAMPLAIN VALLEY PHYSICIANS HOSP MED CTR T C U	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	PLATTSBURGH	—	—
9963	FINNIE GOOD SHEPHERD N H	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	GALATIA	—	—
9964	THE COLONY AT EDEN PRAIRIE	0.2%	37.0	D	MN	EDEN PRAIRIE	0	—
9965	ST MICHAELS EV LUTHERAN HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	WI	FOUNTAIN CITY	0	—
9966	COLUMBUS NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	COLUMBUS	—	—
9967	CHEBOYGAN MEM HOSPITAL LTCU	0.2%	37.0	—	MI	CHEBOYGAN	—	—
9968	ST HELENA HOSPITAL SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	DEER PARK	0	—
9969	Grace Hall - Rehabilitation	0.2%	37.0	—	SC	Mt Pleasant	—	—
9970	EMILY P. BISSELL HOSPITAL	0.2%	37.0	—	DE	WILMINGTON	—	—
9971	PARK VIEW CARE CENTER OF BURLI	0.2%	37.0	—	IA	BURLINGTON	—	—
9972	ST JOSEPH TCU	0.2%	37.0	—	ID	LEWISTON	—	—
9973	CONCORDIA AT THE CEDARS	0.2%	37.0	A	PA	MONROEVILLE	59	—
9974	FAIR PARK HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	HENDERSON	—	—
9975	THE LIVING CENTER OF CHILDRESS	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	CHILDRESS	0	—
9976	HARMONY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	FL	SARASOTA	0	—
9977	MOUNTAINVIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MA	MONTGOMERY	0	—
9978	TANNER MED CTR SUBACUTE CARE U	0.2%	37.0	—	GA	CARROLLTON	—	—
9979	GOVALLE CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	AUSTIN	—	—
9980	COMMUNITY CARE CENTER OF CLARENDON	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	CLARENDON	0	—
9981	CENTRAL COAST NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	SANTA BARBARA	—	—
9982	HARMARVILLE TRANSITIONAL REHABILITATION UNIT	0.2%	37.0	—	PA	PITTSBURGH	—	—
9983	Western Kentucky Veterans Center	0.2%	37.0	—	KY	HANSON	—	—
9984	TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	GA	TIFTON	—	—
9985	EAST PEORIA GARDENS HLTHCR CTR	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	EAST PEORIA	0	—
9986	FREEMAN HOSPITAL AND HEALTH SYSTEM	0.2%	37.0	—	MO	JOPLIN	—	—
9987	SMITH NURSING HOME INC	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	CANTON	—	—
9988	IRVINGTON NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	37.0	—	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	—	—
9989	TAHOKA CARE CENTER, LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	TAHOKA	0	—
9990	WAKEMED ZEBULON/WENDELL OUTPATIENT & SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	NC	ZEBULON	—	—
9991	Methodist Manor Retirement Community	0.2%	37.0	A	IA	Storm Lake	93	—
9992	VERNON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	VERNON	0	—
9993	HUNTINGTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	EL SERENO	0	—
9994	GREENS AT CREEKSIDE, THE	0.2%	37.0	—	MO	KANSAS CITY	—	—
9995	TEXAN NURSING & REHAB OF WACO LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	WACO	—	—
9996	OWATONNA CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MN	OWATONNA	0	—
9997	NORTH LAKE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	IN	MERRILLVILLE	0	—
9998	NEW BOSTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	NEW BOSTON	—	—
9999	WOODLAND VIEW CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	TULSA	0	—
10000	Christian Care Nursing Center	0.2%	37.0	B	MI	Muskegon	49	—

Showing 9,951–10,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.