Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,901–9,950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9901	CLIFFORD CHESTER SIMS STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.3	A	FL	PANAMA CITY	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
9902	Pleasant Manor Healthcare Rehabilitation	0.2%	41.3	F	TX	Waxahachie	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9903	Cass County Medical Care Facility	0.2%	41.3	C	MI	Cassopolis	80	—
9904	Chosen Valley Care Center	0.2%	41.3	A	MN	CHATFIELD	78	—
9905	BOSTONIAN NURSING CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	MA	DORCHESTER	121	—
9906	SUNNY HILL NURSING HOME OF WILL COUNTY	0.2%	41.3	A	IL	JOLIET	157	—
9907	TRINITY COMMUNITY	0.2%	41.3	C	OH	BEAVERCREEK	95	—
9908	PIERCE MEMORIAL BAPTIST HOME, INC.	0.2%	41.3	A	CT	BROOKLYN	72	—
9909	MINNIE HAMILTON HEALTH CARE	0.2%	41.3	A	WV	GRANTSVILLE	24	—
9910	WESLEY ENHANCED LIVING AT STAPELEY	0.2%	41.3	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	120	—
9911	MEADOWBROOK VILLAGE CHRISTIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.2%	41.3	A	CA	ESCONDIDO	19	—
9912	Maine Veterans Home - Augusta	0.2%	41.3	A	ME	AUGUSTA	108	MAINE VETERANS HOME
9913	ANETA PARKVIEW HEALTH CTR	0.2%	41.3	A	ND	ANETA	35	—
9914	FLATIRONS HEALTH & REHAB, LLC	0.2%	41.3	C	CO	LOUISVILLE	45	—
9915	Mt Carmel Home - Keens Memorial	0.2%	41.3	A	NE	Kearney	75	—
9916	Kerens Care Center	0.2%	41.3	D	TX	Kerens	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9917	Rice Estate Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.2%	41.3	A	SC	Columbia	80	LUTHERAN HOMES OF SC INC
9918	INTERCOMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	D	CA	LONG BEACH	147	—
9919	Milwaukee Catholic Home	0.2%	41.3	A	WI	MILWAUKEE	107	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
9920	SCHOELLKOPF HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	NY	NIAGARA FALLS	120	—
9921	GARFIELD COUNTY HOSPITAL, LTCU	0.2%	37.0	—	WA	POMEROY	—	—
9922	ABBEY HILL NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	37.0	—	AR	HOT SPRINGS	0	—
9923	MORRISON HSP (FOUR SEASONS)	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	MORRISON	0	—
9924	(CLOSED) BAPTIST MEMORIAL HOSP-MEMPHIS SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	TN	MEMPHIS	—	—
9925	WYOMING MEDICAL CENTER TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.2%	37.0	—	WY	CASPER	—	—
9926	Britthaven Of Chapel Hill	0.2%	37.0	—	NC	Chapel Hill	—	—
9927	EASTWOOD CARE & REHAB, LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	TYLER	0	—
9928	Clemson Area Retirement Center	0.2%	37.0	—	SC	Clemson	—	—
9929	EAST LIVERPOOL CITY HOSP SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	EAST LIVERPOOL	—	—
9930	LAUREL HILL HEALTHCARE	0.2%	37.0	—	CT	WINSTED	—	—
9931	ROSEWOOD MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	YORKVILLE	0	—
9932	WAKEMED FUQUAY VARINA OUTPATIENT & SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	NC	FUQUAY VARINA	—	—
9933	THE ENCORE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	A	LA	CROWLEY	73	—
9934	CENTEGRA SPECIALTY HOSPITAL-WOODSTOCK	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	WOODSTOCK	—	—
9935	SAN JUAN AGING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	PR	RIO PIEDRAS	—	—
9936	FLORIDA PRESBYTERIAN HOMES INC	0.2%	37.0	A	FL	LAKELAND	68	—
9937	Fort Bayard Medical Center	0.2%	37.0	—	NM	Fort Bayard	0	—
9938	ROYAL CENTER (THE)	0.2%	37.0	—	MA	FALMOUTH	—	—
9939	Kings Daughters Medical Center	0.2%	37.0	—	KY	Ashland	—	—
9940	Lake Mills Health Services	0.2%	37.0	C	WI	LAKE MILLS	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9941	ST CHARLES CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	KY	COVINGTON	—	—
9942	WM & SALLY TANDET CTR FOR CONT	0.2%	37.0	—	CT	STAMFORD	—	—
9943	ALPINE TRANSITIONAL REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	UT	BRIGHAM CITY	—	—
9944	THE ROBERT MAPPLETHORPE AT RES TREATMENT FAC A N	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	NEW YORK	0	—
9945	OMAHA HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	OMAHA	—	—
9946	CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MEDICAL CTR - CALIF EAST CAMPUS	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	0	—
9947	MISSION GROVE HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	SOUTH PASADENA	0	—
9948	OAKS OF MID CITY NURSING AND REHAB CTR(THE)	0.2%	37.0	—	LA	BATON ROUGE	0	—
9949	JUDSON PARK	0.2%	37.0	C	OH	CLEVELAND	36	—
9950	ALL-AMERICAN CARE OF LITTLE ROCK	0.2%	37.0	—	AR	LITTLE ROCK	0	—

Showing 9,901–9,950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.