Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,851–9,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9851	Carrollton Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	41.3	C	TX	Carrollton	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9852	CHAPARRAL HOUSE	0.2%	41.3	A	CA	BERKELEY	49	—
9853	COUNTRY VIEW LIVING	0.2%	41.3	A	TX	DIMMITT	54	—
9854	MADONNA TOWERS OF ROCHESTER	0.2%	41.3	A	MN	ROCHESTER	62	—
9855	MCAULEY RESIDENCE	0.2%	41.3	A	NY	KENMORE	160	—
9856	North Shore Healthcare at Marshfield	0.2%	41.3	B	WI	Marshfield	120	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9857	SMP HEALTH - ST CATHERINE SOUTH	0.2%	41.3	A	ND	FARGO	98	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION HEALTH SYSTEM
9858	MARIAN MANOR HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	ND	GLEN ULLIN	54	—
9859	SPRING BRANCH TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	TX	HOUSTON	198	—
9860	ADDISON HEIGHTS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.3	B	OH	MAUMEE	90	AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
9861	SARAH REED SENIOR LIVING	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	ERIE	106	—
9862	PRINCESS ANNE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.3	B	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	120	—
9863	THE MASSACHUSETTS VETERANS HOME AT CHELSEA	0.2%	41.3	A	MA	CHELSEA	154	THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS
9864	CHARLES T SITRIN HEALTH CARE CENTER INC	0.2%	41.3	B	NY	NEW HARTFORD	188	—
9865	WESLEY PLACE ON HONEYSUCKLE	0.2%	41.3	A	AL	DOTHAN	166	METHODIST HOME FOR THE AGING
9866	SALEM WEST HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	B	OH	SALEM	80	RRW LLC
9867	Life Care Center of Plainwell	0.2%	41.3	C	MI	Plainwell	119	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9868	RICHLAND NURSING & REHAB	0.2%	41.3	F	IL	OLNEY	157	—
9869	FERNWOOD SUPPORTIVE LIVING AT MADRONA GROVE	0.2%	41.3	A	OR	PORTLAND	16	—
9870	SOLOMON VALLEY MANOR	0.2%	41.3	A	KS	STOCKTON	30	—
9871	WESLEY ENHANCED LIVING PENNYPACK PARK	0.2%	41.3	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	120	—
9872	PERSHING GENERAL HOSPITAL SNF	0.2%	41.3	C	NV	LOVELOCK	25	—
9873	PIATT COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.3	A	IL	MONTICELLO	100	—
9874	Sacred Heart Care Center	0.2%	41.3	A	MN	AUSTIN	59	—
9875	Star Valley Care Center	0.2%	41.3	A	WY	Afton	24	—
9876	River Landing at Sandy Ridge	0.2%	41.3	A	NC	Colfax	60	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES INC
9877	GURWIN JEWISH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	NY	COMMACK	460	GURWIN HEALTHCARE SYSTEM INC
9878	MAJESTIC OAKS	0.2%	41.3	A	FL	ORANGE CITY	150	—
9879	Focused Care at Mount Pleasant	0.2%	41.3	D	TX	Mount Pleasant	122	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
9880	Corwin Center At Emerald Heights	0.2%	41.3	A	WA	REDMOND	61	—
9881	SIMMONS LOVING CARE HEALTH FACILITY	0.2%	41.3	F	IN	GARY	46	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
9882	SPRING HILL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	41.3	D	PA	PITTSBURGH	100	POLLAK HOLDINGS LLC
9883	ELIZABETH CHURCH MANOR NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.3	C	NY	BINGHAMTON	120	—
9884	Avir at Mansfield	0.2%	41.3	B	TX	MANSFIELD	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9885	WESTERN RESERVE MASONIC COMM	0.2%	41.3	B	OH	MEDINA	50	—
9886	ST LUKES LUTHERAN CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	MN	BLUE EARTH	64	—
9887	NORTHEAST LA WAR VETERANS HOME	0.2%	41.3	A	LA	MONROE	8	STATE OF LA DEPT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
9888	ST CATHERINE OF SIENA NRSG AND REHAB CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	C	NY	SMITHTOWN	240	—
9889	AVIATA AT ORANGE PARK	0.2%	41.3	B	FL	ORANGE PARK	120	—
9890	CENTRE CARE REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS SERVICES	0.2%	41.3	C	PA	BELLEFONTE	240	—
9891	SHENANGO PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	NEW WILMINGTON	32	PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE
9892	MASONIC CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHAB INC	0.2%	41.3	A	WI	DOUSMAN	50	—
9893	TERESIAN HOUSE NURSING HOME CO INC	0.2%	41.3	A	NY	ALBANY	302	UNIDINE CORPORATION
9894	GOOD SHEPHERD VILLAGE AT ENDWELL	0.2%	41.3	A	NY	ENDWELL	32	—
9895	CONCORDIA AT REBECCA RESIDENCE	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	ALLISON PARK	60	—
9896	Penn Yan Manor Nursing Home Inc	0.2%	41.3	A	NY	Penn Yan	46	—
9897	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE OF DUBLIN	0.2%	41.3	A	OH	DUBLIN	50	—
9898	HOLY FAMILY HOME	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	18	—
9899	Palo Alto County Hospital	0.2%	41.3	A	IA	Emmetsburg	22	—
9900	GUY AND MARY FELT MANOR, INC	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	EMPORIUM	30	—

Showing 9,851–9,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.