Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,801–9,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9801	Kewaunee Health Services	0.2%	41.9	A	WI	Kewaunee	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9802	Steere House Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	41.9	A	RI	Providence	120	—
9803	Newaldaya Lifescapes	0.2%	41.9	C	IA	Cedar Falls	112	—
9804	Maryhill Manor	0.2%	41.9	B	WI	Niagara	50	—
9805	THE DOROTHY & JOSEPH GOLDBERG HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	A	CA	ENCINITAS	58	—
9806	Thryve of South Holland	0.2%	41.9	F	IL	SOUTH HOLLAND	216	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
9807	WILLOW RIDGE OF MENNONITE HOME COMMUNITIES OF OHIO	0.2%	41.9	A	OH	BLUFFTON	20	BRETHREN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY
9808	THE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB AT HOOSICK FALLS	0.2%	41.9	C	NY	HOOSICK FALLS	82	—
9809	LAKELAND HEALTH CARE CTR	0.2%	41.9	C	WI	ELKHORN	90	—
9810	St Clare Home	0.2%	41.9	A	RI	Newport	50	—
9811	15 CRAIGSIDE	0.2%	41.9	A	HI	HONOLULU	45	ARCADIA ELDER SERVICES
9812	THE WYBE AND MARIETJE KROONTJE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	A	VA	BLACKSBURG	60	—
9813	BETHEL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	A	KS	NORTH NEWTON	65	—
9814	BEZALEL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	41.9	A	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	120	—
9815	Highlands Living Center	0.2%	41.3	B	NY	Pittsford	122	—
9816	FORTRESS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	41.3	D	TX	COLLEGE STATION	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9817	GLEN AT WILLOW VALLEY	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	LANCASTER	262	WILLOW VALLEY COMMUNITIES
9818	MESSIAH LIFEWAYS AT MESSIAH VILLAGE	0.2%	41.3	B	PA	MECHANICSBURG	118	—
9819	ROSA COPLON JEWISH HOME AND INFIRMARY	0.2%	41.3	C	NY	GETZVILLE	180	—
9820	BAPTIST HEALTH & REHAB	0.2%	41.3	A	ND	BISMARCK	140	ELIM CARE INC
9821	Mercy Health Services	0.2%	41.3	B	WI	MILWAUKEE	60	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9822	WILLIS NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP	0.2%	41.3	B	TX	WILLIS	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
9823	CLEBURNE COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.3	A	AL	HEFLIN	82	—
9824	COLUMBIA BASIN HOSPITAL	0.2%	41.3	A	WA	EPHRATA	12	—
9825	CALHOUN NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.3	A	GA	EDISON	60	THE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY OF MILLER COUNTY
9826	Trillium Place	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	LANCASTER	160	—
9827	STONES RIVER MANOR, INC	0.2%	41.3	A	TN	MURFREESBORO	30	—
9828	SD HUMAN SERVICES CENTER - GERIATRIC PROGRAM	0.2%	41.3	A	SD	YANKTON	69	—
9829	Mt Ogden Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	41.3	C	UT	Washington Terrace	108	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
9830	WILLIAM BREMAN JEWISH HOME, THE	0.2%	41.3	A	GA	ATLANTA	96	—
9831	SCHOWALTER VILLA	0.2%	41.3	A	KS	HESSTON	105	—
9832	AVANTARA NORTON	0.2%	41.3	F	SD	SIOUX FALLS	110	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
9833	OHIO LIVING WESTMINSTER-THURBER	0.2%	41.3	B	OH	COLUMBUS	35	—
9834	CARING HEART REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	41.3	D	PA	PHILADELPHIA	269	—
9835	RIVERSIDE REST HOME	0.2%	41.3	A	NH	DOVER	215	—
9836	Rivers Edge Nursing and Rehab	0.2%	41.3	D	WI	Muscoda	58	BEDROCK HC WI LLC
9837	DELAWARE VALLEY VETERAN'S HOME	0.2%	41.3	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	171	—
9838	SHREVEPORT MANOR SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	41.3	F	LA	SHREVEPORT	127	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
9839	BROOKVIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	CHAMBERSBURG	56	—
9840	Hcc At White Horse Village	0.2%	41.3	A	PA	NEWTOWN SQUARE	55	—
9841	WYANDOT COUNTY SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	41.3	C	OH	UPPER SANDUSKY	82	—
9842	DESTIN HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	FL	DESTIN	119	—
9843	THE VILLAGE AT GERMANTOWN	0.2%	41.3	A	TN	GERMANTOWN	55	—
9844	BARTRAM CROSSING	0.2%	41.3	D	FL	JACKSONVILLE	100	GENESIS HEALTH INC
9845	MOUNT SAINT JOSEPH REHAB CENTER	0.2%	41.3	B	OH	EUCLID	90	—
9846	Lakeview Methodist Health Care Center	0.2%	41.3	A	MN	FAIRMONT	72	—
9847	MIRACLE HILL NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	0.2%	41.3	B	FL	TALLAHASSEE	120	—
9848	Monument Healthcare Pioneer Trail	0.2%	41.3	B	UT	Brigham City	72	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
9849	HARBOR'S EDGE	0.2%	41.3	A	VA	NORFOLK	33	—
9850	ROSARY CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.3	A	OH	SYLVANIA	76	—

Showing 9,801–9,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.