Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,751–9,800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9751	VALLEY WEST HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	OR	EUGENE	121	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9752	MOUNTRAIL BETHEL HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	ND	STANLEY	36	—
9753	KIN ON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	WA	SEATTLE	100	—
9754	WELSH HOME THE	0.2%	41.9	A	OH	ROCKY RIVER	79	—
9755	REHAB & HEALTHCARE CENTER OF CAPE CORAL	0.2%	41.9	B	FL	CAPE CORAL	118	—
9756	Winfield Rehab & Nursing	0.2%	41.9	F	TX	Crockett	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9757	SHEARER-RICHARDSON MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	MS	OKOLONA	73	—
9758	WISCONSIN DELLS HEALTH SERVICES	0.2%	41.9	B	WI	WISCONSIN DELLS	90	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9759	Windsor Hills Nursing Center	0.2%	41.9	C	OK	Oklahoma City	112	LEP HOLDINGS LLC
9760	Iowa Jewish Senior Life Center	0.2%	41.9	B	IA	Des Moines	46	—
9761	Owsley County Health Care Center, Inc.	0.2%	41.9	B	KY	Booneville	91	—
9762	MANOR AT CARPENTERS, THE	0.2%	41.9	A	FL	LAKELAND	72	—
9763	Eastway Health & Rehabilitation	0.2%	41.9	D	KY	Louisville	252	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
9764	Washington Veteran Home-Retsil	0.2%	41.9	B	WA	PT ORCHARD	240	WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF VETE
9765	PIPER SHORES	0.2%	41.9	A	ME	SCARBOROUGH	40	—
9766	MATHER EVANSTON, THE	0.2%	41.9	A	IL	EVANSTON	37	—
9767	ADVENTHEALTH NORTH PINELLAS	0.2%	41.9	—	FL	TARPON SPRINGS	32	—
9768	LIMA CONVALESCENT HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	OH	LIMA	72	—
9769	THE HAVEN AT BRANDERMILL WOODS	0.2%	41.9	A	VA	MIDLOTHIAN	60	—
9770	MI CASITA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.9	D	TX	LUBBOCK	0	HANSFORD COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9771	PATRIOT HEIGHTS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
9772	CHOCTAW NATION NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.9	B	OK	ANTLERS	72	BGM ESTATE LLC
9773	Pendleton Manor	0.2%	41.9	B	WV	FRANKLIN	89	—
9774	LOOMIS LAKESIDE AT REEDS LANDING	0.2%	41.9	B	MA	SPRINGFIELD	42	—
9775	GOOD SHEPHERD-FAIRVIEW HOME INC	0.2%	41.9	C	NY	BINGHAMTON	54	—
9776	Bethany At Pacific	0.2%	41.9	B	WA	EVERETT	80	BETHANY OF THE NORTHWEST
9777	The Waterview Pines LLC	0.2%	41.9	C	MN	VIRGINIA	83	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
9778	Mission at Richfield Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.2%	41.9	F	UT	Richfield	98	GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
9779	Cedars Health Center	0.2%	41.9	C	MS	TUPELO	140	—
9780	CHOWCHILLA MEMORIAL HEALTHCARE DISTRICT	0.2%	41.9	A	CA	CHOWCHILLA	29	—
9781	Abernathy Laurels	0.2%	41.9	A	NC	Newton	174	EVERYAGE
9782	ACC CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	CA	SACRAMENTO	99	—
9783	KANSAS VETERANS HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	KS	WINFIELD	97	—
9784	FOREST HILL MANOR	0.2%	41.9	D	ME	FORT KENT	45	—
9785	JONES CO REST HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	MS	ELLISVILLE	122	SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
9786	BOYCE MANOR NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.9	C	OK	HOLDENVILLE	155	TIFFANY SEAY EXEMPT TR
9787	SCHAFFER EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	A	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	150	—
9788	CAVE CITY NURSING HOME INC	0.2%	41.9	A	AR	CAVE CITY	90	—
9789	MAINEGENERAL REHAB & LONG TERM CARE - GLENRIDGE	0.2%	41.9	A	ME	AUGUSTA	125	—
9790	GREEK AMERICAN REHAB CARE CTR	0.2%	41.9	B	IL	WHEELING	188	—
9791	NEVADA STATE VETERANS HOME - BOULDER CITY	0.2%	41.9	B	NV	BOULDER CITY	180	—
9792	INGLIS HOUSE	0.2%	41.9	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	202	—
9793	Prairie Manor Care Center	0.2%	41.9	B	MN	BLOOMING PRAIRIE	39	—
9794	ELEVATE CARE RIVERWOODS	0.2%	41.9	D	IL	RIVERWOODS	240	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
9795	TRUSTEES OF EASTERN STAR HALL & HOME OF THE N Y S	0.2%	41.9	B	NY	ORISKANY	86	—
9796	THE MEADOWS AT OSBORN PARK	0.2%	41.9	A	OH	HURON	130	—
9797	SMP HEALTH - ST ALOISIUS	0.2%	41.9	A	ND	HARVEY	65	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION HEALTH SYSTEM
9798	DOGWOOD VILLAGE OF ORANGE COUNTY HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	41.9	A	VA	ORANGE	164	—
9799	APERION CARE HANOVER	0.2%	41.9	C	IN	HANOVER	125	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
9800	FOCUSED CARE AT CLARKSVILLE	0.2%	41.9	D	TX	CLARKSVILLE	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC

Showing 9,751–9,800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.