Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,701–9,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9701	Lourdes Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.2%	41.9	B	MI	Waterford	80	—
9702	TORRANCE MEMORIAL MED CTR SNF/DP	0.2%	41.9	B	CA	TORRANCE	40	CEDARS SINAI HEALTH SYSTEM
9703	Porter Hills Health Center	0.2%	41.9	A	MI	Grand Rapids	39	UMRCPH INC
9704	LONG ISLAND STATE VETERANS HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	NY	STONYBROOK	350	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
9705	HOLY CROSS VILLAGE AT NOTRE DAME INC	0.2%	41.9	A	IN	NOTRE DAME	52	—
9706	Mountain View Skilled Nursing Community at WLRC	0.2%	41.9	F	WY	Lander	40	STATE OF WYOMING
9707	CLARKSON HEALTH CARE	0.2%	41.9	B	SD	RAPID CITY	49	—
9708	CLAY COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	AL	ASHLAND	83	—
9709	MENNO HAVEN REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	PA	CHAMBERSBURG	44	—
9710	Mary Ann Morse Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.2%	41.9	A	MA	NATICK	124	—
9711	TRINITY COMMUNITY AT FAIRBORN	0.2%	41.9	A	OH	FAIRBORN	94	—
9712	WATHENA HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.9	A	KS	WATHENA	60	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
9713	GOOD SHEPHERD HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	OH	FOSTORIA	95	—
9714	Emerald Trace	0.2%	41.9	A	KY	Elsmere	54	—
9715	MEMPHIS JEWISH HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	TN	CORDOVA	160	—
9716	COMMUNITY HOSPITAL ONAGA LTCU	0.2%	41.9	A	KS	ST MARYS	26	—
9717	Aurora On France	0.2%	41.9	A	MN	EDINA	65	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
9718	FATHER BAKER MANOR	0.2%	41.9	B	NY	ORCHARD PARK	160	—
9719	OHIO LIVING DOROTHY LOVE	0.2%	41.9	B	OH	SIDNEY	44	—
9720	Edgewater Haven Nursing Home	0.2%	41.9	A	WI	Port Edwards	50	—
9721	MN VETERANS HOME FERGUS FALLS	0.2%	41.9	B	MN	FERGUS FALLS	85	—
9722	SANFORD CHAMBERLAIN CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	D	SD	CHAMBERLAIN	44	—
9723	NORTH VALLEY HOSPITAL	0.2%	41.9	B	WA	TONASKET	42	—
9724	PRAIRIEVIEW LUTHERAN HOME	0.2%	41.9	B	IL	DANFORTH	90	—
9725	WHARTON NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.9	B	TN	PLEASANT HILL	62	—
9726	LANDIS HOMES	0.2%	41.9	A	PA	LITITZ	103	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
9727	HOMEWOOD LIVING MARTINSBURG, INC	0.2%	41.9	A	PA	MARTINSBURG	129	—
9728	ADVENTHEALTH DADE CITY	0.2%	41.9	—	FL	DADE CITY	45	—
9729	The Waterview Shores LLC	0.2%	41.9	B	MN	TWO HARBORS	44	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
9730	COVENANT WOODS NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	VA	MECHANICSVILLE	62	—
9731	ELIM PARK BAPTIST HOME, INC	0.2%	41.9	A	CT	CHESHIRE	90	—
9732	THE VILLAS AT POWAY	0.2%	41.9	B	CA	POWAY	129	—
9733	THE LAURELS OF HEATH	0.2%	41.9	C	OH	HEATH	150	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
9734	WASHINGTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.2%	41.9	A	CO	AKRON	40	—
9735	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE HEALTH & REHAB	0.2%	41.9	B	IN	TERRE HAUTE	78	—
9736	ANNANDALE CARE CENTER INC	0.2%	41.9	A	MN	ANNANDALE	42	—
9737	CHRISTOPHER HOUSE OF WORCESTER	0.2%	41.9	A	MA	WORCESTER	156	—
9738	SYRACUSE HOME ASSOCIATION	0.2%	41.9	A	NY	BALDWINSVILLE	120	—
9739	CANTON OAKS	0.2%	41.9	C	TX	CANTON	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9740	OUR LADY OF THE VALLEY	0.2%	41.9	A	VA	ROANOKE	70	—
9741	GRANDVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	TX	GRANDVIEW	0	—
9742	FOCUSED CARE AT HAMILTON	0.2%	41.9	A	TX	HAMILTON	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9743	THE LEGACY AT WILLOW BEND	0.2%	41.9	A	TX	PLANO	0	THE LEGACY SENIOR COMMUNITIES INC
9744	Interlochen Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	41.9	D	TX	Arlington	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9745	Seven Hills Pediatric Center	0.2%	41.9	A	MA	GROTON	83	—
9746	Paradigm at Woodwind Lakes	0.2%	41.9	D	TX	Houston	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
9747	Providence Holy Cross Med Ctr D/P SNF	0.2%	41.9	F	CA	MISSION HILLS	48	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
9748	PARKVUE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	OH	SANDUSKY	84	—
9749	The Gilbert Residence	0.2%	41.9	A	MI	Ypsilanti	32	—
9750	PROGRESSIVE CARE CENTER	0.2%	41.9	B	LA	SHREVEPORT	48	—

Showing 9,701–9,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.