Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

10,301–10,350

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
10301	CEDAR HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	NH	PORTSMOUTH	102	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
10302	MERIT HEALTH WESLEY	0.0%	27.7	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	25	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
10303	LIFE CARE CENTER OF LAGRANGE	0.0%	27.7	C	IN	LAGRANGE	87	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
10304	Homestead Health Services	0.0%	27.7	C	WI	New Holstein	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
10305	WOODLAND GROVE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	27.7	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	COPPER FL TRUST II
10306	SPRINGDALE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	AR	SPRINGDALE	140	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
10307	WOODS ON FRENCH CREEK NURSING & REHAB CENTER THE	0.0%	27.7	A	OH	AVON	74	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
10308	ARC AT EL PASO	0.0%	27.7	C	IL	EL PASO	65	YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
10309	THE BELMONT AT TWIN CREEKS	0.0%	27.7	C	TX	ALLEN	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10310	SPECIALTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	FL	PENSACOLA	120	ZBL PANHANDLE 7 LLC
10311	PRUITTHEALTH - FRANKLIN	0.0%	27.7	A	GA	FRANKLIN	78	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
10312	STAMFORD CARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	C	CT	STAMFORD	156	—
10313	BATAVIA NURSING CARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	A	OH	BATAVIA	110	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
10314	LIBERTY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.0%	27.7	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	94	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
10315	Sunnybrook Rehabilitation Center	0.0%	27.7	A	NC	Raleigh	95	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
10316	RIVER RIDGE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	ME	KENNEBUNK	62	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
10317	COPPER RIDGE NURSING AND ASSISTED LIVING CENTER	0.0%	27.7	D	MD	SYKESVILLE	66	—
10318	OZARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.0%	27.7	A	AL	OZARK	149	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
10319	Patterson Healthcare Center	0.0%	27.7	D	LA	Patterson	121	NEXION HEALTH INC
10320	WADSWORTH POINTE	0.0%	27.7	B	OH	WADSWORTH	64	BNV DYNASTY LLC
10321	Wheaton Franciscan HC - Terrace at St Francis	0.0%	27.7	B	WI	MILWAUKEE	81	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
10322	ROCKLEDGE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	27.7	A	FL	ROCKLEDGE	107	COPPER FL TRUST II
10323	HILLTOP VILLAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.0%	27.7	D	TX	KERRVILLE	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
10324	LANDMARK OF RAYNE	0.0%	27.7	B	LA	RAYNE	130	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
10325	PRUITTHEALTH - FAIRBURN	0.0%	27.7	A	GA	FAIRBURN	82	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
10326	THE REHAB CENTER AT BRISTOL	0.0%	27.7	C	VA	BRISTOL	90	—
10327	Mission Point Nursing & Physical Rehabilitation Ce	0.0%	27.7	D	MI	Belding	128	MISSION POINT MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
10328	PALACE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER, THE	0.0%	27.7	C	NJ	MAPLE SHADE	165	—
10329	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY SIOUX FALLS CENTER	0.0%	27.7	F	SD	SIOUX FALLS	98	SANFORD
10330	The Estates at Fridley LLC	0.0%	27.7	B	MN	FRIDLEY	50	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
10331	Millbrook Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	0.0%	27.7	C	TX	Lancaster	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10332	REGENCY REDMOND REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.0%	27.7	A	OR	REDMOND	50	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
10333	PARKVIEW JULIAN HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	CA	BAKERSFIELD	99	—
10334	WILLOWS HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	0.0%	27.7	C	OH	EUCLID	75	BNV DYNASTY LLC
10335	HAMILTON TRACE OF FISHERS	0.0%	27.7	C	IN	FISHERS	108	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
10336	Oakmont Manor	0.0%	27.7	A	KY	Flatwoods	85	VALLEY STREAM OPERATOR I LLC
10337	HALE KUPUNA HERITAGE HOME, LLC	0.0%	27.7	C	HI	KOLOA	84	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
10338	AMAYA SPRINGS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	C	CA	SPRING VALLEY	50	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
10339	LEMONT NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.0%	27.7	D	IL	LEMONT	173	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
10340	ATLAS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE AT WASHINGTON	0.0%	27.7	B	NJ	SEWELL	120	JMH FAMILY LLC
10341	GRANADA HILLS CONVALESCENT	0.0%	27.7	B	CA	GRANADA HILLS	48	—
10342	PALM GARDEN OF VERO BEACH	0.0%	27.7	B	FL	VERO BEACH	189	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
10343	THE GREEN HOUSE COTTAGES OF WALNUT RIDGE	0.0%	27.7	B	AR	WALNUT RIDGE	119	JEJ ASSETS LP
10344	MONTCARE AT POTOMAC	0.0%	27.7	A	MD	POTOMAC	168	MD3 OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
10345	CEDAR VIEW REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	A	MA	METHUEN	106	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
10346	Signature Healthcare at Jefferson Place Rehab & We	0.0%	27.7	B	KY	Louisville	96	WHEATEN LLC
10347	WINDSOR HEALTH and REHABILITATION	0.0%	27.7	B	OR	SALEM	100	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
10348	Pine Heights at Brattleboro Center for Nursing & R	0.0%	27.7	A	VT	Brattleboro	80	BNB HEALTH CARE FUNDS LLC
10349	FRANKLIN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	VA	ROCKY MOUNT	120	CHARLES 1994 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
10350	EVERGREEN COMMONS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CTR	0.0%	27.7	B	NY	EAST GREENBUSH	240	—

Showing 10,301–10,350 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.