Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,051–1,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1051	ORCHARD PARK HEALTH CARE & REHAB CENTER	6.6%	93.8	B	WA	TACOMA	147	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1052	Avir at Borger	6.6%	93.8	C	TX	Borger	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1053	Signature Healthcare of Monroe County Rehab and We	6.6%	93.8	C	KY	Tompkinsville	104	WHEATEN LLC
1054	GOLDEN ACRES LIVING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	6.6%	93.7	C	TX	DALLAS	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1055	CHESTERTON MANOR	6.6%	93.7	B	IN	CHESTERTON	100	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1056	DIVERSICARE OF SEDGWICK	6.6%	93.7	C	KS	SEDGWICK	62	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
1057	The Colonnades at Reflection Bay	6.6%	93.7	D	TX	Pearland	0	SWEENY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1058	The Pearl of Fox River Valley	6.6%	93.7	F	IL	ELGIN	112	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
1059	SEASIDE HHC @ ATLANTIC SHORE	6.6%	93.7	A	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	50	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
1060	ROCKY MOUNT HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	6.6%	93.7	B	VA	ROCKY MOUNT	180	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1061	Abbotts Creek Center	6.6%	93.7	A	NC	Lexington	64	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1062	LIFE CARE CENTER OF COLUMBIA	6.6%	93.7	B	TN	COLUMBIA	123	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1063	FIRST SHAMROCK CARE CENTER	6.6%	93.7	B	OK	KINGFISHER	55	BGM ESTATE LLC
1064	Mountain View Manor Nursing Center	6.6%	93.7	C	NC	Bryson City	120	JOHN M FAUST LIVING TRUST
1065	ASTORIA HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	6.6%	93.7	A	OH	GERMANTOWN	50	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1066	MERRY WOOD LODGE	6.6%	93.7	C	AL	ELMORE	124	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1067	La Bella of Cahokia	6.5%	93.7	D	IL	CAHOKIA	150	—
1068	AVIATA AT HARTS HARBOR	6.5%	93.7	D	FL	JACKSONVILLE	180	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
1069	ADVENA LIVING OF CHERRYVALE	6.5%	93.7	B	KS	CHERRYVALE	45	CGHII INC
1070	Fenton Healthcare	6.5%	93.7	A	MI	Fenton	92	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1071	LAURELWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	6.5%	93.7	C	TN	JACKSON	64	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
1072	Uptown Rehabilitation Center	6.5%	93.7	B	NM	Albuquerque	134	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1073	SEQUOYAH POINTE LIVING CENTER	6.5%	93.6	C	OK	OWASSO	92	—
1074	PIERREMONT HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.5%	93.6	F	LA	SHREVEPORT	180	NEXION HEALTH INC
1075	CANTERBURY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	6.5%	93.6	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	142	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
1076	WINDSOR GARDENS	6.5%	93.6	C	TX	LANCASTER	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1077	CAREONE AT CRESSKILL	6.5%	93.6	C	NJ	CRESSKILL	113	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1078	Autumn Care of Salisbury	6.5%	93.6	B	NC	Salisbury	97	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1079	CHESTNUT GRN HLTH CTR BLAKEHUR	6.5%	93.6	A	MD	TOWSON	49	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
1080	HERITAGE THE	6.5%	93.6	D	OH	FINDLAY	96	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1081	PARKLAND MANOR LIVING CENTER	6.5%	93.6	B	OK	PRAGUE	78	—
1082	Complete Care at Kensington	6.5%	93.6	D	WI	WAUKESHA	150	PEACE CAPITAL LLC
1083	Signature Healthcare at Summerfield Rehab & Wellne	6.5%	93.6	D	KY	Louisville	165	WHEATEN LLC
1084	SOUTHGATE LIVING CENTER	6.5%	93.6	C	MO	CARUTHERSVILLE	94	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
1085	Generations at Applewood	6.5%	93.6	D	IL	MATTESON	154	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
1086	The Heights of North Houston	6.5%	93.6	C	TX	Houston	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
1087	LAKE RIDGE CENTER	6.5%	93.6	B	WA	MOSES LAKE	74	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1088	Meridian Care Monte Vista	6.5%	93.6	C	TX	San Antonio	106	—
1089	Park View Care Center	6.5%	93.5	D	TX	Fort Worth	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
1090	Zachary Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	6.5%	93.5	C	LA	Zachary	110	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1091	Harmony Suites Rehabilitation and Wellness Center	6.5%	93.5	C	MD	SILVER SPRING	100	RRW LLC
1092	CAMELBACK POST ACUTE CARE AND REHABILITATION	6.5%	93.5	A	AZ	PHOENIX	107	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1093	SERENITY SPRING SENIOR LIVING AT JASONVILLE	6.5%	93.5	B	IN	JASONVILLE	60	GREENE COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
1094	Somerwoods Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	6.5%	93.5	C	KY	Somerset	166	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
1095	FOX RUN MANOR	6.5%	93.5	C	OH	FINDLAY	120	HCF INC
1096	COUNTRY COURT	6.5%	93.5	C	OH	MOUNT VERNON	84	LEVERING MANAGEMENT INC
1097	Crestwood Care Center	6.5%	93.5	F	OH	SHELBY	130	RRW LLC
1098	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY LUTHER MANOR	6.5%	93.5	D	SD	SIOUX FALLS	92	SANFORD
1099	Sequoyah Manor, LLC	6.4%	93.5	D	OK	Sallisaw	162	DELORES O MITCHELL RVOC TR
1100	CRESTVIEW CENTER	6.4%	93.5	B	PA	LANGHORNE	180	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC

Showing 1,051–1,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.