Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,101–1,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1101	TYGART CENTER AT FAIRMONT CAMPUS	6.4%	93.5	B	WV	FAIRMONT	119	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1102	Waverly Hills Post Acute	6.4%	93.5	F	TN	WAVERLY	100	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
1103	The Madison on Marsh	6.4%	93.5	C	TX	Carrollton	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1104	Lincoln Haven Nursing & Rehabilitation Community	6.4%	93.5	A	MI	Lincoln	39	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
1105	The Laurels of Kent	6.4%	93.5	F	MI	Lowell	153	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
1106	Kannapolis Health and Rehabilitation	6.4%	93.5	C	NC	Kannapolis	107	SNF MGR LLC
1107	ARBOR GLEN CARE CENTER	6.4%	93.4	B	CA	GLENDORA	98	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1108	SOUTHWOOD HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.4%	93.4	C	IN	TERRE HAUTE	121	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
1109	VILLA ROSA NURSING AND REHABILITATION, LLC	6.4%	93.4	B	MD	MITCHELLVILLE	107	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1110	Forestville Rehabilitation and Wellness Center	6.4%	93.4	B	MD	FORESTVILLE	162	RRW LLC
1111	Park Place Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	6.4%	93.4	D	TX	Tyler	0	HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1112	Sandia Ridge Center	6.4%	93.4	B	NM	Albuquerque	140	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1113	LAGUNA HILLS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	6.4%	93.4	B	CA	LAGUNA HILLS	208	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
1114	Westview Healthcare Center	6.4%	93.4	C	CA	Auburn	205	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1115	MARY GOSS NURSING HOME	6.4%	93.4	C	LA	MONROE	91	—
1116	ELK CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	6.4%	93.4	A	OK	ELK CITY	118	—
1117	MEEKER NURSING CENTER	6.4%	93.4	B	OK	MEEKER	70	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
1118	ALDERWOOD PARK HEALTH AND REHAB OF CASCADIA	6.4%	93.4	D	WA	BELLINGHAM	102	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
1119	REGENCY FLORENCE	6.4%	93.3	B	OR	FLORENCE	72	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
1120	MERIDIAN CARE OF ALICE	6.4%	93.3	C	TX	ALICE	0	—
1121	WENTWORTH REHAB & HCC	6.4%	93.3	F	IL	CHICAGO	300	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1122	RECTOR NURSING AND REHAB	6.4%	93.3	D	AR	RECTOR	70	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
1123	DIVERSICARE OF HAYSVILLE	6.4%	93.3	C	KS	HAYSVILLE	119	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
1124	West Hickory Haven	6.4%	93.3	C	MI	Milford	101	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
1125	THE HEALTHCARE RESORT OF OLATHE	6.4%	93.3	F	KS	OLATHE	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1126	The Villa at Rose City	6.4%	93.3	F	MI	Rose City	102	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
1127	GOLDEN VILLA	6.4%	93.3	C	TX	ATLANTA	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1128	TUSCANY GARDENS	6.4%	93.3	B	OH	PATASKALA	123	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
1129	WATERS OF HARTFORD CITY SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	6.4%	93.3	B	IN	HARTFORD CITY	65	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1130	THE GRAND AT BETHANY SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	6.4%	93.3	C	OK	BETHANY	161	BRIDGES ESOP INC
1131	GALENA NURSING & REHAB CENTER	6.4%	93.3	C	KS	GALENA	45	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
1132	WILLOWOOD CARE CENTER OF BRUNSWICK	6.4%	93.3	B	OH	BRUNSWICK	100	CARECORE HEALTH LLC
1133	ST ELIZABETH'S PLACE	6.4%	93.3	B	AR	JONESBORO	110	RHC OPERATIONS INC
1134	FOUNDATION PARK CARE CENTER	6.4%	93.3	C	OH	TOLEDO	109	NURSING CARE MANAGEMENT OF AMERICA
1135	New Castle Nursing & Rehab	6.4%	93.3	B	KY	New Castle	60	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1136	SUNDANCE SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	6.3%	93.3	B	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	68	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
1137	Shawano Health Services	6.3%	93.3	C	WI	Shawano	100	—
1138	REGENCY ALBANY	6.3%	93.3	B	OR	ALBANY	74	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
1139	BRIARWOOD COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	6.3%	93.3	A	TN	LEXINGTON	55	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
1140	RIVER RIDGE CENTER	6.3%	93.3	B	ME	KENNEBUNK	62	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1141	Brazos Healthcare Center	6.3%	93.3	A	TX	Lake Jackson	0	—
1142	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	6.3%	93.2	B	IN	MOORESVILLE	98	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1143	UKIAH POST ACUTE	6.3%	93.2	B	CA	UKIAH	57	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1144	Audubon Health and Rehab	6.3%	93.2	A	LA	THIBODAUX	172	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1145	Regency at Troy	6.3%	93.2	C	MI	Troy	154	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1146	Avalon Place	6.3%	93.2	A	LA	MONROE	113	DCZ HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
1147	ALTAMAHA HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.3%	93.2	B	GA	JESUP	62	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
1148	NORTHERN OAKS LIVING & REHABILITATION CENTER	6.3%	93.2	B	TX	ABILENE	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1149	SPRINGFIELD VILLA	6.3%	93.2	D	MO	SPRINGFIELD	146	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1150	AVAMERE HEALTH SERVICES OF ROGUE VALLEY	6.3%	93.2	A	OR	MEDFORD	91	AVAMERE GROUP LLC

Showing 1,101–1,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.