Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,151–1,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1151	Rio Rancho Center	6.3%	93.2	B	NM	Rio Rancho	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1152	Evangeline Oaks Guest House	6.3%	93.2	B	LA	Carencro	190	—
1153	Oakland Nursing Center	6.3%	93.2	C	MI	Southfield	26	—
1154	La Bella of Sterling	6.3%	93.2	D	IL	STERLING	70	—
1155	DARCY HALL OF LIFE CARE	6.3%	93.2	B	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	220	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1156	San Marcos Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	6.3%	93.2	B	TX	San Marcos	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
1157	MEADOWS OF LEIPSIC	6.3%	93.2	C	OH	LEIPSIC	52	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1158	ARBORS AT OREGON	6.3%	93.2	B	OH	OREGON	87	B&Y TRUST
1159	CITY PARK HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	6.3%	93.2	C	CO	DENVER	125	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1160	Physical Rehabilitation And Wellness Center Of Spa	6.3%	93.1	B	SC	Spartanburg	120	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1161	BAYBROOKE VILLAGE CARE AND REHAB CENTER	6.3%	93.1	F	TX	MCKINNEY	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1162	The Gardens at Foley LLC	6.3%	93.1	C	MN	FOLEY	78	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
1163	COLUMBUS HEALTH AND REHAB	6.3%	93.1	C	WI	COLUMBUS	50	BARRES LLC
1164	Medilodge of St. Clair	6.3%	93.1	B	MI	East China	158	B&Y TRUST
1165	The Laurels of Galesburg	6.3%	93.1	C	MI	Galesburg	93	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1166	PRUITTHEALTH - ASHBURN	6.3%	93.1	B	GA	ASHBURN	76	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1167	CRESTVIEW COURT	6.3%	93.1	C	TX	CEDAR HILL	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1168	CHARITON PARK HEALTH CARE CENTER	6.2%	93.1	B	MO	SALISBURY	120	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1169	TWIN LAKES THERAPY AND LIVING	6.2%	93.1	C	AR	FLIPPIN	80	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
1170	The Manor of Novi	6.2%	93.1	D	MI	Novi	130	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
1171	CRESCENT HEALTH CARE	6.2%	93.0	C	WA	YAKIMA	85	—
1172	ALDEN NORTH SHORE REHAB & HCC	6.2%	93.0	D	IL	SKOKIE	93	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1173	WILLOW CREEK HEALTH CARE	6.2%	93.0	B	OK	GUTHRIE	100	HMLC LLC
1174	MEDICALODGES FORT SCOTT	6.2%	93.0	A	KS	FORT SCOTT	45	MEDICALODGES INC
1175	CLOVERLEAF OF KNIGHTSVILLE	6.2%	93.0	B	IN	KNIGHTSVILLE	102	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1176	MILETREE CENTER	6.2%	93.0	B	WV	SPENCER	62	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1177	WAYNE CENTER	6.2%	93.0	B	PA	WAYNE	112	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1178	TRI-COMMUNITY NURSING CENTER	6.2%	93.0	A	LA	PALMETTO	108	—
1179	DOVER CARE CENTER	6.2%	93.0	B	TN	DOVER	88	MEDICAL REHABILITATION CENTERS LLC
1180	Greenfield Care Center of Fairfield	6.2%	93.0	D	CA	Fairfield	90	—
1181	Evercare of Calhoun	6.2%	93.0	D	IL	HARDIN	80	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
1182	PRUITTHEALTH - BETHANY	6.2%	93.0	B	GA	MILLEN	100	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1183	AUTUMN CARE OF PORTSMOUTH	6.2%	93.0	B	VA	PORTSMOUTH	108	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1184	AVENUE AT BROADVIEW HEIGHTS	6.2%	93.0	C	OH	BROADVIEW HEIGHTS	78	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
1185	CRESTPARK DEWITT, LLC	6.2%	93.0	B	AR	DE WITT	70	BELEW LLC
1186	Lake Village Rehabilitation and Care Center	6.2%	93.0	C	AR	Lake Village	82	JEJ ASSETS LP
1187	CareOne At Madison Avenue	6.2%	93.0	C	NJ	MORRISTOWN	178	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1188	HAWTHORNE HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.2%	93.0	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	88	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1189	GREYSTONE HEALTH CARE CENTER	6.2%	93.0	C	TN	BLOUNTVILLE	160	B&Y TRUST
1190	REGENCY PRINEVILLE REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	6.2%	93.0	A	OR	PRINEVILLE	44	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
1191	Buena Vista Care Center	6.2%	93.0	C	CA	Santa Barbara	150	COVENANT CARE LLC
1192	PRUITTHEALTH - FORSYTH	6.2%	93.0	B	GA	FORSYTH	72	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1193	MEDICALODGES GODDARD	6.2%	93.0	B	KS	GODDARD	60	MEDICALODGES INC
1194	Red Cliffs Health and Rehab	6.2%	92.9	D	UT	St George	124	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
1195	Sunview Respiratory and Rehabilitation	6.2%	92.9	A	AZ	YOUNGTOWN	127	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1196	DIVERSICARE OF OAK RIDGE	6.2%	92.9	C	TN	OAK RIDGE	120	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
1197	COTTONWOOD CANYON HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.2%	92.9	B	CA	EL CAJON	96	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1198	HAVEN OF LAKESIDE	6.2%	92.9	D	AZ	LAKESIDE	112	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
1199	Finger Lakes Health	6.2%	92.9	A	NY	Geneva	345	—
1200	CORNERSTONE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.2%	92.9	C	MS	CORINTH	95	NEXION HEALTH INC

Showing 1,151–1,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.