Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,201–1,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1201	WESLEYAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	6.2%	92.9	F	IN	MARION	139	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
1202	GROVE OF FOX VALLEY,THE	6.1%	92.9	D	IL	AURORA	158	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
1203	Perry Green Valley Nursing Center, LLC	6.1%	92.9	C	OK	Perry	112	HMLC LLC
1204	Monument Healthcare North Park	6.1%	92.9	D	UT	Bountiful	0	—
1205	WEST SUBURBAN NURSING & REHAB CENTER	6.1%	92.9	F	IL	BLOOMINGDALE	259	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
1206	Creston Specialty Care	6.1%	92.9	C	IA	Creston	74	CARE INITIATIVES
1207	Barre Gardens Nursing and Rehab, LLC	6.1%	92.9	C	VT	Barre	96	—
1208	PRUITTHEALTH - AUSTELL	6.1%	92.9	B	GA	AUSTELL	124	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1209	PARADIGM AT THE BRAZOS	6.1%	92.8	A	TX	RICHMOND	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
1210	LAUREL CENTER	6.1%	92.8	B	PA	HAMBURG	130	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1211	Bradford Manor Nursing and Rehab	6.1%	92.8	D	PA	BRADFORD	115	HCF INC
1212	THE BLOSSOMS AT CONWAY REHAB & NURSING CENTER	6.1%	92.8	C	AR	CONWAY	104	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
1213	FRANKLIN WOODS CENTER	6.1%	92.8	B	MD	BALTIMORE	117	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1214	GARDEN TERRACE AT OVERLAND PARK	6.1%	92.8	C	KS	OVERLAND PARK	163	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1215	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF ELIZABETHON REHAB & WELLNE	6.1%	92.8	B	TN	ELIZABETHTON	94	WHEATEN LLC
1216	QUAKERTOWN CENTER	6.1%	92.8	B	PA	QUAKERTOWN	138	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1217	The Manor at Seagoville	6.1%	92.8	D	TX	Seagoville	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1218	COTTAGE OF THE SHOALS	6.1%	92.8	A	AL	TUSCUMBIA	103	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1219	Sabino Canyon Rehabilitation & Care Center	6.1%	92.8	A	AZ	TUCSON	112	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1220	ST MARY HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.1%	92.8	B	IN	LAFAYETTE	79	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1221	Cambridge Health and Rehabilitation Center	6.1%	92.8	C	TX	Richmond	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
1222	MAJESTIC CARE OF DEMING PARK	6.1%	92.8	F	IN	TERRE HAUTE	86	MAJOR HOSPITAL
1223	CAREONE AT PARSIPPANY	6.1%	92.8	D	NJ	PARSIPPANY TROY HILL	118	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1224	CAREONE AT HOLMDEL	6.1%	92.8	B	NJ	HOLMDEL	130	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1225	SAINT ANTHONY REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	6.1%	92.8	B	IN	LAFAYETTE	120	MAJOR HOSPITAL
1226	PruittHealth - Carrollton	6.1%	92.7	A	GA	CARROLLTON	42	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1227	MOUNTAIN CITY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	6.1%	92.7	D	PA	HAZLETON	297	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1228	PERSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	6.1%	92.7	C	NC	ROXBORO	56	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
1229	Brookwood Skilled Nursing and Therapy	6.1%	92.7	D	OK	Oklahoma City	137	BRIDGES ESOP INC
1230	GREEN VALLEY HEALTH AND WELLNESS SUITES	6.1%	92.7	D	NV	HENDERSON	124	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1231	PARK MANOR REHABILITATION CTR	6.1%	92.7	B	WA	WALLA WALLA	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1232	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING PLEASANT HILL	6.1%	92.7	F	MO	PLEASANT HILL	90	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
1233	WALDORF CENTER	6.1%	92.7	B	MD	WALDORF	115	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1234	Parke View Rehabilitation & Care Center	6.1%	92.7	B	ID	Burley	86	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1235	CHALET REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.1%	92.7	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	88	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1236	VISALIA POST ACUTE	6.1%	92.7	B	CA	VISALIA	176	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1237	LIFE CARE CENTER OF WESTLAKE	6.1%	92.7	B	OH	WESTLAKE	119	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1238	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	6.1%	92.7	B	IN	CULVER	66	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1239	SUMMERFIELD HEALTH CARE CENTER	6.1%	92.7	A	CA	SANTA ROSA	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1240	GREENFIELD HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.1%	92.7	C	IN	GREENFIELD	163	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
1241	Harrison Pointe Healthcare and Rehabilitation	6.1%	92.7	C	UT	Ogden	63	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
1242	DELMAR GARDENS NORTH	6.1%	92.7	F	MO	BLACK JACK	240	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
1243	EVERETT CENTER	6.1%	92.6	F	WA	EVERETT	100	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1244	HARRISON'S CROSSING HEALTH CAMPUS	6.1%	92.6	C	IN	TERRE HAUTE	72	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1245	OAK GROVE CENTER	6.1%	92.6	D	ME	WATERVILLE	90	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1246	MCDOWELL HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.1%	92.6	A	WV	GARY	120	RRW LLC
1247	WILLOWBEND NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	6.1%	92.6	D	TX	MESQUITE	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1248	APERION CARE DEMOTTE	6.1%	92.6	D	IN	DEMOTTE	93	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
1249	Paradigm at Faith Memorial	6.0%	92.6	C	TX	Pasadena	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
1250	DEVON GABLES REHABILITATION CENTER	6.0%	92.6	B	AZ	TUCSON	312	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC

Showing 1,201–1,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.