Ownership-change pipeline
CHOW Radar
Universe
16,900
active SNFs, scored
Model
p_chow_12m v0.1
deterministic logistic, public records only
Top decile captures
49.6%
of actual next-12m sales on holdout
Base rate
2.4%
observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels
Ranked by sale probability
1,251–1,300Movers — largest changes between published composite scores
15| Facility | State | Setting | Previous | Current | Δ | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crouse Community Center Inc | NY | adult day | 0.0 | 98.5 | +98.5 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME INSTEAD | FL | home health | 98.3 | 5.4 | -92.9 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES | FL | home health | 98.3 | 6.3 | -92.0 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME INSTEAD | FL | home health | 97.2 | 6.3 | -90.9 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME HEART FLORIDA | FL | home health | 97.7 | 7.4 | -90.3 | 2026-07-28 |
| VITALCARING GROUP | FL | home health | 98.1 | 10.4 | -87.7 | 2026-07-28 |
| SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS | FL | home health | 90.6 | 3.0 | -87.6 | 2026-07-28 |
| RIGHT AT HOME | FL | home health | 93.8 | 8.2 | -85.6 | 2026-07-28 |
| SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS | FL | home health | 6.3 | 91.0 | +84.7 | 2026-07-28 |
| ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE | FL | home health | 98.9 | 16.2 | -82.7 | 2026-07-28 |
| BAYSHORE HOME CARE | FL | home health | 97.6 | 15.1 | -82.5 | 2026-07-28 |
| VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST | FL | home health | 97.8 | 15.6 | -82.2 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME INSTEAD | FL | home health | 6.3 | 88.5 | +82.2 | 2026-07-28 |
| ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST | FL | home health | 97.1 | 15.6 | -81.5 | 2026-07-28 |
| ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE | FL | home health | 16.3 | 97.6 | +81.3 | 2026-07-28 |
Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.
p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.