Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,301–1,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1301	PRUITTHEALTH - SPRING VALLEY	5.9%	92.3	A	GA	ELBERTON	60	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1302	Willoughby Post Acute	5.9%	92.3	B	OH	WILLOUGHBY	157	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1303	PATASKALA OAKS CARE CENTER	5.9%	92.3	C	OH	PATASKALA	86	NURSING CARE MANAGEMENT OF AMERICA
1304	Timberwood Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	5.9%	92.3	C	TX	Livingston	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
1305	LEMON GROVE CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.9%	92.3	A	CA	LEMON GROVE	158	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1306	SEA CLIFF HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.9%	92.3	A	CA	HUNTINGTON BEACH	182	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1307	WILLIAM PENN CARE CENTER	5.9%	92.3	C	PA	JEANNETTE	145	—
1308	PRUITTHEALTH - WEST ATLANTA	5.9%	92.3	B	GA	ATLANTA	120	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1309	MAYFAIR VILLAGE NURSING CARE CENTER	5.9%	92.2	C	OH	COLUMBUS	99	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1310	Aspen Park of Cascadia	5.9%	92.2	B	ID	Moscow	70	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
1311	Jesup Ridge of Journey LLC	5.9%	92.2	F	GA	JESUP	72	BARRES LLC
1312	LIFE CARE CENTER OF MEDINA	5.9%	92.2	C	OH	MEDINA	149	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1313	OSWEGO OPERATOR, LLC	5.9%	92.2	B	KS	OSWEGO	40	BARRES LLC
1314	Avir at Veterans Memorial	5.9%	92.2	C	TX	Houston	0	MME CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
1315	PruittHealth- Aiken	5.9%	92.2	C	SC	Aiken	176	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1316	PRINCETON PLACE-RUSTON	5.9%	92.2	A	LA	Ruston	123	DCZ HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
1317	Newport Subacute Healthcare Center	5.9%	92.2	B	CA	COSTA MESA	139	—
1318	CARE ONE AT RANDOLPH	5.9%	92.2	D	MA	RANDOLPH	168	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1319	NICK'S HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC	5.9%	92.2	C	MO	PLATTSBURG	70	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1320	YORKTOWN MANOR	5.9%	92.2	B	IN	YORKTOWN	100	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1321	HIGHLAND POINTE HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	5.9%	92.2	C	OH	HIGHLAND HEIGHTS	96	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1322	THE COURTYARDS AT PASADENA	5.9%	92.2	C	TX	PASADENA	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
1323	LIFE CARE CENTER OF EAST RIDGE	5.9%	92.2	B	TN	CHATTANOOGA	108	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1324	NHC HEALTHCARE, SMITHVILLE	5.9%	92.2	C	TN	SMITHVILLE	114	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1325	PruittHealth-Neuse	5.9%	92.2	C	NC	New Bern	110	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1326	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - LINCOLN HILLS CARE CENTER	5.9%	92.2	B	IN	TELL CITY	86	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
1327	Holly Hall	5.9%	92.1	A	TX	Houston	62	—
1328	Canyon Transitional Rehabilitation Center, LLC	5.9%	92.1	B	NM	Albuquerque	74	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1329	ALDEN ESTATES OF EVANSTON	5.9%	92.1	C	IL	EVANSTON	99	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1330	YAZOO CITY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.9%	92.1	D	MS	YAZOO CITY	155	NEXION HEALTH INC
1331	COUNTRYSIDE MANOR HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	5.9%	92.1	C	IN	ANDERSON	109	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
1332	CONCORDIA MANOR	5.9%	92.1	D	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	39	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
1333	GRAND PLAINS SKILLED NURSING BY AMERICARE	5.9%	92.1	B	KS	PRATT	60	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
1334	Heritage Park Healthcare and Rehabilitation	5.9%	92.1	B	UT	Roy	176	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
1335	GLENWOOD CENTER	5.9%	92.1	B	AL	FLORENCE	125	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1336	HEATHER HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.9%	92.1	C	IL	HARVEY	173	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1337	Monroe Rehabilitation Center	5.8%	92.1	B	NC	Monroe	147	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
1338	Cardinal Hill Skilled Rehabilitation Unit	5.8%	92.1	B	KY	Lexington	74	—
1339	RESTHAVEN NURSING & REHAB CENTER, LLC	5.8%	92.1	D	LA	LAKE CHARLES	162	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1340	Desert Highlands Care Center	5.8%	92.1	A	AZ	KINGMAN	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
1341	Monticello Nursing & Rehab Center	5.8%	92.1	A	IA	Monticello	75	JOHN W GRUBB TRUST
1342	CHICKASHA NURSING CENTER, INC	5.8%	92.0	B	OK	CHICKASHA	60	—
1343	Axiom Gardens of Mount Vernon	5.8%	92.0	D	IL	MOUNT VERNON	106	—
1344	The Shores Of Worthington	5.8%	92.0	F	MN	WORTHINGTON	69	—
1345	STONEBRIDGE MARBLE HILL	5.8%	92.0	C	MO	MARBLE HILL	98	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
1346	GRAND MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	5.8%	92.0	C	NY	BRONX	240	—
1347	PruittHealth-Carolina Point	5.8%	92.0	C	NC	Durham	138	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1348	TROY MANOR	5.8%	92.0	D	MO	TROY	130	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1349	AVALON VILLA CARE CENTER	5.8%	92.0	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	131	—
1350	HALE ANUENUE RESTORATIVE CARE	5.8%	92.0	C	HI	HILO	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC

Showing 1,301–1,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.