Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,351–1,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1351	COUNTRY CLUB RETIREMENT CTR IV	5.8%	92.0	C	OH	BELLAIRE	62	HOLLAND GROUP II LTD
1352	SHARON CARE CENTER	5.8%	92.0	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	86	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1353	SUMMERS HEALTHCARE, LLC	5.8%	92.0	B	OK	OKEENE	48	—
1354	MAJORA LANE CTR FOR REHAB & NSG CARE INC	5.8%	92.0	C	OH	MILLERSBURG	80	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
1355	CARE ONE AT LEXINGTON	5.8%	92.0	F	MA	LEXINGTON	211	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1356	ACCELA REHAB AND CARE CENTER AT SPRINGFIELD	5.8%	92.0	C	PA	GLENSIDE	129	—
1357	HERITAGE PARK	5.8%	92.0	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	180	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
1358	CHALET LIVING & REHAB	5.8%	92.0	F	IL	CHICAGO	219	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
1359	CHANDLER POST ACUTE AND REHABILITATION	5.8%	92.0	A	AZ	CHANDLER	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1360	RIVERSIDE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.8%	92.0	A	OH	DAYTON	180	RRW LLC
1361	MAGNOLIA POST ACUTE CARE	5.8%	92.0	B	CA	EL CAJON	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1362	WATERS EDGE VILLAGE	5.8%	91.9	A	IN	MUNCIE	74	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
1363	WATERS OF LAGRANGE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	5.8%	91.9	B	IN	LAGRANGE	100	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1364	RIVERBEND POST ACUTE REHABILITATION	5.8%	91.9	D	KS	KANSAS CITY	131	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1365	THE OAKS HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.8%	91.9	C	OK	POTEAU	158	MATRIX PROVIDER SOLUTIONS LLC
1366	Autumn Care of Waynesville	5.8%	91.9	C	NC	Waynesville	90	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1367	The Lodge at Taylor	5.8%	91.9	C	MI	Taylor	134	B&Y TRUST
1368	Arrowhead Post Acute LLC	5.8%	91.9	C	GA	JONESBORO	115	BARRES LLC
1369	QUARTERS AT DES PERES, THE	5.8%	91.9	F	MO	DES PERES	147	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
1370	Avina on 32nd	5.8%	91.9	D	WI	KENOSHA	110	—
1371	HELIA HEALTHCARE OF BENTON	5.8%	91.9	C	IL	BENTON	83	BRIDGEMARK HEALTHCARE LLC
1372	PLANTATION OAKS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	5.8%	91.9	D	LA	WISNER	76	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1373	Bernice Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	5.8%	91.9	B	LA	BERNICE	126	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
1374	ALTERCARE OF LOUISVILLE CTR FOR REHAB & NSG CARE	5.8%	91.9	C	OH	LOUISVILLE	90	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
1375	SPRINGBROOK CENTER	5.8%	91.9	B	ME	WESTBROOK	123	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1376	REDWOOD COVE HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.8%	91.9	B	CA	UKIAH	68	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1377	Brentwood Center For Health & Rehabilitation, LLC	5.8%	91.9	C	ME	Yarmouth	78	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
1378	Spanish Trails Rehabilitation Suites	5.7%	91.8	F	NM	Albuquerque	134	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1379	Compass Post Acute Rehabilitation	5.7%	91.8	A	SC	Conway	95	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1380	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF MARION	5.7%	91.8	C	MS	MARION	120	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
1381	PARKWOOD SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.7%	91.8	C	MO	MARYLAND HEIGHTS	130	RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1382	MEADOWVIEW HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	5.7%	91.8	C	LA	MINDEN	182	NEXION HEALTH INC
1383	HILLSBORO POST ACUTE	5.7%	91.8	B	OH	HILLSBORO	99	DMD MANAGEMENT INC
1384	MONROVIA GARDENS HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.7%	91.8	B	CA	MONROVIA	96	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
1385	BIRMINGHAM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR LLC	5.7%	91.8	B	AL	BIRMINGHAM	132	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
1386	NATCHEZ REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.7%	91.8	C	MS	NATCHEZ	58	NEXION HEALTH INC
1387	Deridder Retirement & Rehab Center	5.7%	91.8	B	LA	DERIDDER	90	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
1388	MAPLEWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.7%	91.8	D	TN	JACKSON	160	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
1389	WELLBROOKE OF AVON	5.7%	91.8	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	70	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
1390	THE PAVILION AT CREEKWOOD	5.7%	91.8	C	TX	MANSFIELD	0	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1391	ELDON NURSING & REHAB	5.7%	91.8	C	MO	ELDON	90	—
1392	HERITAGE AT TURNER PARK HEALTH & REHAB	5.7%	91.8	C	TX	GRAND PRAIRIE	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1393	ACCEL AT LONGMONT HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	5.7%	91.8	F	CO	LONGMONT	5	MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
1394	RETREAT AT THE STRATFORD, THE	5.7%	91.8	A	IN	CARMEL	18	MAXWELL GROUP INC
1395	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF FAYETTE COUNTY	5.7%	91.8	B	OH	WASHINGTON COURT HOU	92	WHEATEN LLC
1396	BLUE POINT HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.7%	91.7	D	MD	BALTIMORE	135	RRW LLC
1397	HATLEY HEALTH CARE INC	5.7%	91.7	B	AL	CLANTON	201	—
1398	ROLLING HILLS HEALTH AND REHAB	5.7%	91.7	C	KS	WICHITA	85	BARRES LLC
1399	FIFTH AVENUE HEALTH CARE	5.7%	91.7	F	GA	ROME	100	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
1400	Rivergate Terrace	5.7%	91.7	B	MI	Riverview	288	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC

Showing 1,351–1,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.