Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,401–1,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1401	ORMOND NURSING & CARE CENTER	5.7%	91.7	A	LA	DESTREHAN	146	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1402	GRAND LAKE VILLA	5.7%	91.7	A	OK	GROVE	100	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
1403	CEDAR RIDGE CENTER	5.7%	91.7	B	ME	SKOWHEGAN	75	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1404	BEL AIR AT TERAVISTA	5.7%	91.7	C	TX	ROUND ROCK	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1405	PRUITTHEALTH - FORT OGLETHORPE	5.7%	91.7	A	GA	FORT OGLETHORPE	120	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1406	HAVEN OF GLOBE	5.7%	91.7	D	AZ	GLOBE	104	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
1407	Ojai Health & Rehabilitation	5.7%	91.7	B	CA	Ojai	74	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1408	Medilodge of Montrose Inc	5.7%	91.7	B	MI	Montrose	121	B&Y TRUST
1409	Salem Springlake Health & Rehabilitation Center	5.7%	91.7	B	KY	Salem	75	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
1410	TALLWOODS CARE CENTER	5.7%	91.6	B	NJ	BAYVILLE	180	EZ CARE
1411	APPLETON CITY MANOR	5.7%	91.6	F	MO	APPLETON CITY	60	—
1412	ALTERCARE OF CUYAHOGA FALLS CTR FOR REHAB & NURSIN	5.7%	91.6	D	OH	CUYAHOGA FALLS	91	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
1413	CAREONE AT EVESHAM	5.7%	91.6	C	NJ	MARLTON	144	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1414	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	5.7%	91.6	B	IN	WARSAW	137	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1415	MEDICANA NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	5.7%	91.6	A	FL	LAKE WORTH	116	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
1416	FAIRHAVEN HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.7%	91.6	C	MA	LOWELL	169	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
1417	CLARK'S MOUNTAIN NURSING CENTER	5.7%	91.6	C	MO	PIEDMONT	91	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
1418	DELLS NURSING AND REHAB CENTER INC	5.7%	91.6	B	SD	DELL RAPIDS	50	—
1419	LINDSAY GARDENS NURSING & REHABILITATION	5.7%	91.6	B	CA	LINDSAY	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1420	Holston Health and Rehabilitation	5.7%	91.6	F	VA	WYTHEVILLE	137	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
1421	Pine Acres Rehabilitation and Care Center	5.7%	91.6	D	IA	West Des Moines	140	—
1422	West Bend Health and Rehabilitation	5.7%	91.6	A	IA	West Bend	45	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1423	White County Rehab and Nursing	5.7%	91.6	D	IL	CARMI	74	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
1424	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING WEBB CITY	5.7%	91.5	C	MO	WEBB CITY	120	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
1425	THE GARDENS	5.7%	91.5	C	OK	SAPULPA	107	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
1426	Signature Pointe	5.7%	91.5	D	TX	Dallas	0	VILLAGE SENIOR CARE LLC
1427	PRUITTHEALTH - PALMYRA	5.7%	91.5	C	GA	ALBANY	250	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1428	ROCKY POINT CARE CENTER	5.7%	91.5	B	CA	LAKEPORT	90	NAHS HOLDING INC
1429	JOPLIN GARDENS	5.7%	91.5	D	MO	JOPLIN	92	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1430	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	5.6%	91.5	C	IN	LOGANSPORT	127	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1431	TUTTLE CARE CENTER	5.6%	91.5	C	OK	TUTTLE	52	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
1432	Delavan Health Services	5.6%	91.5	A	WI	DELAVAN	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
1433	AMBASSADOR NURSING & REHAB CENTER	5.6%	91.5	F	IL	CHICAGO	190	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
1434	ARBOR GRACE WELLNESS CENTER	5.6%	91.5	D	TX	LITTLEFIELD	0	—
1435	WILMINGTON NURSING & REHAB	5.6%	91.5	B	OH	WILMINGTON	76	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1436	COLLINGSWOOD REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.6%	91.5	B	MD	ROCKVILLE	160	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
1437	The Blossoms at Breckenridge Rehab & Nursing Cente	5.6%	91.5	D	AR	LITTLE ROCK	143	HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LLC
1438	WARREN HAVEN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	5.6%	91.5	F	NJ	OXFORD	180	—
1439	FOREST PARK HEALTH CAMPUS	5.6%	91.5	C	IN	RICHMOND	70	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1440	CIVITA CARE BAYVIEW	5.6%	91.5	C	CT	WATERFORD	127	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
1441	PALO PINTO NURSING CENTER	5.6%	91.5	D	TX	MINERAL WELLS	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
1442	PENNSBURG MANOR	5.6%	91.5	A	PA	PENNSBURG	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1443	Treemont Health Care Center	5.6%	91.5	A	TX	Houston	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1444	SPRINGFIELD REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.6%	91.5	B	MO	SPRINGFIELD	146	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1445	Life Care Center of Leominster	5.6%	91.5	B	MA	LEOMINSTER	133	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1446	BIG BEND WOODS HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.6%	91.4	D	MO	VALLEY PARK	135	—
1447	CAREONE AT MIDDLETOWN	5.6%	91.4	D	NJ	ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS	127	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1448	LOWELL HEALTHCARE	5.6%	91.4	B	IN	LOWELL	86	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
1449	GREENBRIAR CENTER	5.6%	91.4	C	OH	BOARDMAN	120	RRW LLC
1450	West Hills Health & Rehabilitation	5.6%	91.4	B	OR	PORTLAND	180	JOHN B GOODMAN 2006 IRRV GRANTOR TR

Showing 1,401–1,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.