Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,451–1,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1451	PILLARS OF NORTH COUNTY HEALTH & REHAB CENTER, THE	5.6%	91.4	F	MO	FLORISSANT	120	—
1452	SANATOGA CENTER	5.6%	91.4	B	PA	POTTSTOWN	130	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1453	Harris Hill Center, Genesis HealthCare	5.6%	91.4	C	NH	CONCORD	85	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1454	Carolina Rivers Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	5.6%	91.4	B	NC	Jacksonville	120	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
1455	BEACON HILL REHABILITATION	5.6%	91.4	B	WA	LONGVIEW	67	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1456	MACLAY HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.6%	91.4	C	CA	SYLMAR	141	—
1457	ATLANTIC MEMORIAL HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.6%	91.4	A	CA	LONG BEACH	104	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1458	Landmark of Hyde Park Rehabilitation and Nursing C	5.6%	91.3	F	IL	CHICAGO	318	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
1459	AVIR AT JACKSBORO	5.6%	91.3	C	TX	JACKSBORO	0	—
1460	SOUTHEAST REHABILITATION & SKILLED CARE CENTER	5.6%	91.3	C	MA	NORTH EASTON	171	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
1461	LEGEND OAKS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION - WAXAHA	5.6%	91.3	C	TX	WAXAHACHIE	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1462	Green Lea Senior Living	5.6%	91.3	B	MN	MABEL	41	—
1463	LAKELAND REHAB & HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.6%	91.3	C	IL	EFFINGHAM	154	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1464	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - TERRACE CARE CENTER	5.6%	91.3	C	IN	LA PORTE	176	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
1465	Kith Haven	5.6%	91.3	C	MI	Flint	159	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1466	COLBY OPERATOR, LLC	5.6%	91.3	C	KS	COLBY	40	BARRES LLC
1467	NORTHERN DAUPHIN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.6%	91.3	D	PA	MILLERSBURG	194	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
1468	STONEBRIDGE MARYLAND HEIGHTS	5.6%	91.3	C	MO	MARYLAND HEIGHTS	223	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
1469	Hopkins Rehabilitation and Care Center	5.6%	91.3	C	OH	MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS	90	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
1470	THE HEIGHTS OF SUMMERLIN, LLC	5.6%	91.3	B	NV	LAS VEGAS	190	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1471	DELMAR GARDENS OF CHESTERFIELD	5.6%	91.3	B	MO	CHESTERFIELD	227	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
1472	LANDMARK OF DESOTO	5.6%	91.3	B	MS	HORN LAKE	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1473	FOCUSED CARE OF CENTER	5.6%	91.3	C	TX	CENTER	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
1474	Blossom Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	5.6%	91.3	C	GA	MACON	143	—
1475	Focused Care at Midland	5.6%	91.3	F	TX	Midland	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
1476	SEQUOIA TRANSITIONAL CARE	5.6%	91.3	B	CA	PORTERVILLE	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1477	MARQUIS FOREST GROVE POST ACUTE REHAB	5.6%	91.3	B	OR	FOREST GROVE	63	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
1478	ARBORS WEST	5.6%	91.3	C	OH	WEST JEFFERSON	94	B&Y TRUST
1479	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - MUNCIE CARE CENTER	5.6%	91.3	A	IN	MUNCIE	117	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
1480	WELLBROOKE OF WABASH	5.6%	91.3	C	IN	WABASH	70	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1481	CHADWICK COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.2	B	MS	JACKSON	102	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
1482	Southshore Health Care Center	5.5%	91.2	C	MA	ROCKLAND	96	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
1483	WESTWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB, INC	5.5%	91.2	D	AR	SPRINGDALE	85	RHC OPERATIONS INC
1484	HICKORY CREEK AT FRANKLIN	5.5%	91.2	A	IN	FRANKLIN	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
1485	WHITTIER HILLS HEALTH CARE CTR	5.5%	91.2	A	CA	WHITTIER	160	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1486	SMYRNA CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.2	B	TN	SMYRNA	125	MEDICAL REHABILITATION CENTERS LLC
1487	TRAYLOR RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	5.5%	91.2	A	AL	ROANOKE	123	TRAYLOR PORTER HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
1488	COMPLETE CARE AT HARRINGTON COURT	5.5%	91.2	D	CT	COLCHESTER	130	SMS 2021 TRUST
1489	SPRINGFIELD SKILLED CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.2	F	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
1490	EMERALD CARE CENTER TULSA	5.5%	91.2	F	OK	TULSA	118	—
1491	AVENUE CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER, THE	5.5%	91.1	C	OH	WARRENSVILLE HEIGHTS	97	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
1492	SUMMIT HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	5.5%	91.1	B	AR	TAYLOR	70	JEJ ASSETS LP
1493	RIVER BLUFF NURSING HOME	5.5%	91.1	C	IL	ROCKFORD	304	COUNTY OF WINNEBAGO
1494	Belle Grande Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	5.5%	91.1	D	LA	ALEXANDRIA	139	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1495	MEADOWCREST REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.5%	91.1	B	PA	BETHEL PARK	50	RAINTREE CONSULTING GROUP LLC
1496	ALBANY HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	5.5%	91.1	C	IN	ALBANY	102	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
1497	Southside Care Center	5.5%	91.1	F	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	17	—
1498	WILSON'S CREEK NURSING & REHAB	5.5%	91.1	B	MO	SPRINGFIELD	172	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1499	RIDGECREST HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.5%	91.1	B	TX	FORNEY	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1500	University Place Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	5.5%	91.1	B	NC	Charlotte	207	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC

Showing 1,451–1,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.