Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,501–1,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1501	PLAINFIELD HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.1	F	IN	PLAINFIELD	189	—
1502	PARADIGM AT KOUNTZE	5.5%	91.1	C	TX	KOUNTZE	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
1503	STRAFFORD CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.1	C	MO	STRAFFORD	78	—
1504	Signature Healthcare of Kinston	5.5%	91.1	C	NC	Kinston	106	WHEATEN LLC
1505	White Oak Manor - Charlotte	5.5%	91.1	C	NC	Charlotte	180	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
1506	GARDEN TERRACE ALZHEIMER'S CENTER OF EXCELLENCE	5.5%	91.0	B	CO	AURORA	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1507	CYPRESS COVE CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.0	B	AL	MUSCLE SHOALS	90	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1508	WINDSOR HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	5.5%	91.0	C	MO	WINDSOR	60	—
1509	FAIR OAKS REHAB & HEALTHCARE	5.5%	91.0	D	IL	SOUTH BELOIT	78	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1510	Shanoan Springs Nursing and Rehabilitation	5.5%	91.0	D	OK	Chickasha	82	HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA LLC
1511	Fairview Nursing and Rehabilitation Community	5.5%	91.0	C	MI	Centreville	64	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
1512	Richwood Nursing & Rehab	5.5%	91.0	B	KY	La Grange	120	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1513	MEADE DISTRICT HOSP LTCU DBA LONE TREE RETIREMENT	5.5%	91.0	A	KS	MEADE	45	—
1514	FOUNTAIN VIEW SUBACUTE AND NURSING CENTER	5.5%	91.0	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1515	CASAS ADOBES POST ACUTE REHAB CENTER	5.5%	91.0	A	AZ	TUCSON	230	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1516	Medilodge of Clare	5.5%	91.0	C	MI	Clare	92	B&Y TRUST
1517	LIFE CARE CENTER OF BLOUNT COUNTY	5.5%	91.0	B	TN	LOUISVILLE	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1518	LEWISBURG HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.5%	91.0	B	WV	RONCEVERTE	90	RRW LLC
1519	SEQUIM BAY POST ACUTE	5.5%	91.0	C	WA	SEQUIM	100	KALESTA HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
1520	Medilodge of Livingston	5.5%	91.0	C	MI	Howell	125	B&Y TRUST
1521	PRUITTHEALTH - MONROE	5.5%	91.0	A	GA	FORSYTH	83	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1522	TEAYS VALLEY CENTER	5.5%	91.0	B	WV	HURRICANE	124	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1523	Avir at Woodlands	5.5%	91.0	C	TX	EASTLAND	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1524	BERNARD CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.0	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	141	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1525	GLEN OAKS HEALTH CAMPUS	5.5%	91.0	B	IN	NEW CASTLE	68	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1526	ROLLING HILLS CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.0	B	OK	CATOOSA	126	—
1527	Smoky Mountain Health and Rehabilitation Center	5.5%	91.0	A	NC	Waynesville	50	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
1528	Abbeville Crossing of Journey LLC	5.5%	91.0	D	GA	ABBEVILLE	101	SELECTIS HEALTH INC
1529	MANOR, THE	5.5%	91.0	C	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	90	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
1530	PINEWOOD MANOR NURSING HOME & REHABILITATION CNTR	5.5%	91.0	A	GA	HAWKINSVILLE	102	—
1531	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - LAPORTE CARE CENTER	5.5%	91.0	B	IN	LA PORTE	87	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
1532	WESTGATE HILLS REHAB & HEALTHCARE CTR	5.5%	90.9	B	MD	BALTIMORE	120	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
1533	Riverside Health and Rehab	5.5%	90.9	C	SC	Charleston	160	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1534	The Pines Post Acute and Memory Care	5.5%	90.9	B	WI	Clintonville	50	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1535	LASSEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	5.5%	90.9	B	CA	SUSANVILLE	96	WHEATEN LLC
1536	Rehab Center of Cheraw	5.5%	90.9	B	SC	Cheraw	104	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1537	THE HEIGHTS OF GONZALES	5.5%	90.9	B	TX	GONZALES	0	GONZALES HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS
1538	PIONEER RIDGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	5.4%	90.9	C	KS	LAWRENCE	76	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
1539	CARE MANOR NURSING AND REHAB	5.4%	90.9	C	AR	MOUNTAIN HOME	104	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
1540	CARLINVILLE REHAB & HCC	5.4%	90.9	D	IL	CARLINVILLE	98	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1541	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PUYALLUP	5.4%	90.9	B	WA	PUYALLUP	102	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1542	PARADIGM AT FIRST COLONY	5.4%	90.9	C	TX	MISSOURI CITY	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
1543	Woodview Home, Inc.	5.4%	90.9	A	OK	ARDMORE	68	ELMBROOK PROPERTIES INC
1544	THE SUMMIT	5.4%	90.9	A	LA	ALEXANDRIA	130	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1545	CENTER AT CENTERPLACE, LLC, THE	5.4%	90.8	C	CO	GREELEY	54	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
1546	Green Meadow Haven	5.4%	90.8	A	LA	Coushatta	157	—
1547	OAK HILLS NURSING CENTER	5.4%	90.8	A	OH	LORAIN	80	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1548	Gonzales Healthcare Center	5.4%	90.8	C	LA	Gonzales	120	NEXION HEALTH INC
1549	WESTWOOD CENTER	5.4%	90.8	D	VA	BLUEFIELD	60	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1550	APERION CARE PERU	5.4%	90.8	C	IN	PERU	92	MAJOR HOSPITAL

Showing 1,501–1,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.