Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,551–1,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1551	LIFE CARE CENTER OF RHEA COUNTY	5.4%	90.8	D	TN	DAYTON	89	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1552	Tulsa Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	5.4%	90.8	C	OK	TULSA	180	SENIOR CARE GROUP INC
1553	FRANKLIN GROVE LIVING AND REHAB	5.4%	90.8	B	IL	FRANKLIN GROVE	132	MOMENTUM HEALTHCARE LLC
1554	PRUITTHEALTH - FRANKLIN	5.4%	90.8	A	GA	FRANKLIN	78	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1555	BUCKINGHAM PAVILION	5.4%	90.8	D	IL	CHICAGO	235	—
1556	Medilodge of Howell	5.4%	90.8	C	MI	Howell	206	B&Y TRUST
1557	LIFE CARE CENTER OF BRIDGETON	5.4%	90.8	C	MO	BRIDGETON	91	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1558	Medilodge of Cass City	5.4%	90.8	B	MI	Cass City	80	B&Y TRUST
1559	BRYN MAWR EXTENDED CARE CENTER	5.4%	90.8	C	PA	BRYN MAWR	160	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1560	CLAREMONT CARE CENTER	5.4%	90.8	B	CA	POMONA	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1561	Cascades at Orchard Park	5.4%	90.8	C	UT	Orem	52	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
1562	THE HEALTHCARE RESORT OF KANSAS CITY	5.4%	90.8	D	KS	KANSAS CITY	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1563	Autumn Care of Saluda	5.4%	90.7	B	NC	Saluda	99	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1564	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF GREENEVILLE	5.4%	90.7	C	TN	GREENEVILLE	154	WHEATEN LLC
1565	Northrise Wellness & Rehabilitation	5.4%	90.7	C	NM	Las Cruces	31	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1566	ALTERCARE OF ALLIANCE CTR FOR REHAB & NC INC	5.4%	90.7	B	OH	ALLIANCE	96	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
1567	HANOVER HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.4%	90.7	C	OH	MASSILLON	125	RRW LLC
1568	ARBORS AT MILFORD	5.4%	90.7	D	OH	MILFORD	90	B&Y TRUST
1569	CHRISTIAN CARE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	5.4%	90.7	A	IN	BLUFFTON	86	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1570	ELLICOTT CITY HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.4%	90.7	B	MD	ELLICOTT CITY	182	RRW LLC
1571	Waterview Heights Rehabilitation and Nursing Cente	5.4%	90.7	F	NY	Rochester	229	HURLBUT HEALTH CONSULTING LLC
1572	ALL SAINT'S SUBACUTE & TRANSITIONAL CARE	5.4%	90.7	C	CA	SAN LEANDRO	86	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1573	ALTERCARE OF WADSWORTH	5.4%	90.7	C	OH	WADSWORTH	90	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
1574	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - WOODBRIDGE CARE CENTER	5.4%	90.7	B	IN	EVANSVILLE	67	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
1575	Millennium Post Acute Rehabilitation	5.4%	90.7	B	SC	West Columbia	132	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1576	LIBBY CARE CENTER	5.3%	90.6	C	MT	LIBBY	101	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
1577	Woodlawn Rehabilitation & Nursing Center	5.3%	90.6	A	ME	Skowhegan	46	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
1578	REDMONT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.3%	90.6	C	AL	BIRMINGHAM	163	GNH IRRV TR
1579	GRACE HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.3%	90.6	B	CA	FRESNO	99	—
1580	ROYAL OAK NURSING & REHAB CTR	5.3%	90.6	A	OH	MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS	99	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1581	Beadles Nursing Home	5.3%	90.6	C	OK	Alva	74	—
1582	COUNTRYSIDE NURSING & REHAB CTR	5.3%	90.6	D	IL	DOLTON	197	B & Z GRANDCHILDREN ACCUMULATION TRUST
1583	Grayling Nursing & Rehabilitation Community	5.3%	90.6	B	MI	Grayling	72	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
1584	Willowbrook Healthcare	5.3%	90.6	A	KY	Carlisle	71	LEGACY HEALTH SERVICES INC
1585	ESTATES AT SHAVANO PARK	5.3%	90.6	D	TX	SHAVANO PARK	0	—
1586	PruittHealth - Pickens	5.3%	90.6	C	SC	SIX Mile	44	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1587	Cisne Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	5.3%	90.6	B	IL	CISNE	35	—
1588	QUAIL RUN HEALTH AND REHAB	5.3%	90.6	A	AR	TRUMANN	92	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
1589	Deptford Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	5.3%	90.6	C	NJ	DEPTFORD	240	—
1590	San Antonio North Nursing and Rehabilitation	5.3%	90.6	C	TX	San Antonio	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1591	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF CLARKSVILLE	5.3%	90.6	C	TN	CLARKSVILLE	120	WHEATEN LLC
1592	TRIPLE CREEK RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	5.3%	90.6	C	OH	CINCINNATI	56	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1593	Laurels Peak Care & Rehabilitation Center	5.3%	90.6	C	MN	MANKATO	60	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
1594	MAGNOLIA HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.3%	90.6	B	TN	COLUMBIA	181	—
1595	Woodlyn Heights Healthcare Center	5.3%	90.6	B	MN	INVER GROVE HEIGHTS	79	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1596	Lake Emory Post Acute Care	5.3%	90.6	B	SC	Inman	88	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1597	WOODVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.3%	90.6	B	TX	WOODVILLE	0	TYLER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1598	NORTH HOUSTON TRANSITIONAL CARE	5.3%	90.5	C	TX	HOUSTON	0	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1599	Mid-Town Oaks Post-Acute	5.3%	90.5	C	CA	Sacramento	100	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1600	AUTUMNWOOD NURSING & REHAB CENTER	5.3%	90.5	A	OH	RITTMAN	75	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC

Showing 1,551–1,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.