Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,601–1,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1601	Oakview Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	5.3%	90.5	C	KY	Calvert City	100	WHEATEN LLC
1602	WILLARD CARE CENTER	5.3%	90.5	D	MO	WILLARD	66	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1603	Hillsboro Health and Rehab LLC	5.3%	90.5	C	OH	HILLSBORO	99	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1604	SAN BRUNO SKILLED NURSING	5.3%	90.5	B	CA	SAN BRUNO	45	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1605	Cherry Point Bay Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	5.3%	90.5	C	NC	Havelock	70	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
1606	LAURELS OF WEST CARROLLTON THE	5.3%	90.5	C	OH	WEST CARROLLTON	88	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1607	PRESIDENTIAL POST-ACUTE	5.3%	90.5	B	OH	MARION	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1608	MENARD MANOR	5.3%	90.5	A	TX	MENARD	0	—
1609	THE BLOSSOMS AT NORTH LITTLE ROCK REHAB & NURSING	5.3%	90.5	B	AR	NORTH LITTLE ROCK	140	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
1610	SHENANDOAH CENTER	5.3%	90.4	C	WV	CHARLES TOWN	78	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1611	Elevate Care Des Plaines	5.3%	90.4	F	IL	DES PLAINES	275	—
1612	The Citadel Mooresville	5.3%	90.4	D	NC	Mooresville	130	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
1613	BRIDGER REHAB AND CARE CENTER	5.3%	90.4	F	MT	BOZEMAN	103	—
1614	Edmond Health Care Center	5.3%	90.4	F	OK	Edmond	109	—
1615	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING WARSAW	5.3%	90.4	C	MO	WARSAW	90	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
1616	AVIARA HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.3%	90.4	B	CA	ENCINITAS	120	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1617	CORTLAND CENTER	5.3%	90.4	B	OH	CORTLAND	68	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1618	NHC HEALTHCARE, KNOXVILLE	5.3%	90.4	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	127	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1619	RIVERDELL CARE CENTER	5.3%	90.4	A	MO	BOONVILLE	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
1620	CASTLE PINES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	5.3%	90.4	B	TX	LUFKIN	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
1621	WELLSPRING HEALTH CENTER	5.3%	90.4	D	OH	CINCINNATI	70	NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE INCOME OPERATING PARTNERSHIP LP
1622	JO ELLEN SMITH CONVALESCENT CENTER	5.3%	90.4	A	LA	NEW ORLEANS	180	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
1623	AVAMERE AT THREE FOUNTAINS	5.3%	90.4	C	OR	MEDFORD	117	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
1624	Friendship Haven Healthcare and Rehabilitation Cen	5.3%	90.4	B	TX	Friendswood	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1625	Sandpiper Post Acute	5.3%	90.4	D	SC	Mount Pleasant	176	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1626	GALION POINTE, LLC	5.3%	90.4	B	OH	GALION	0	—
1627	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - PORTAGE CARE CENTER	5.3%	90.4	C	IN	PORTAGE	186	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
1628	CLAIBORNE HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.3%	90.4	B	LA	SHREVEPORT	81	NEXION HEALTH INC
1629	PEARL'S II EDEN FOR ELDERS	5.3%	90.4	B	MO	PRINCETON	60	—
1630	HOUSTON HOUSE	5.3%	90.3	A	MO	HOUSTON	96	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
1631	Turtle Creek Rehabilitation and Wellness Center	5.3%	90.3	C	MD	KENSINGTON	140	RRW LLC
1632	DEVONSHIRE CARE CENTER	5.3%	90.3	D	CA	HEMET	99	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1633	ARBORS AT POMEROY	5.3%	90.3	C	OH	POMEROY	91	B&Y TRUST
1634	Raleigh Center	5.3%	90.3	B	WV	DANIELS	68	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1635	HIGHLAND NURSING CENTER	5.3%	90.3	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	53	—
1636	AVALON VILLAGE	5.3%	90.3	A	IN	LIGONIER	67	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
1637	LEGEND OAKS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER -	5.3%	90.3	B	TX	HOUSTON	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
1638	Elmhurst Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	5.3%	90.3	D	RI	Providence	206	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
1639	Hidden Waters Rehabilitation and Wellness Center	5.3%	90.3	C	MD	CLINTON	267	RRW LLC
1640	PARK VIEW POST ACUTE	5.3%	90.3	A	CA	SANTA ROSA	116	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1641	Nu Roc Health and Rehabilitation CTR	5.3%	90.3	B	WI	Laona	50	CHAMPION CARE LLC
1642	Del Rosa Villa	5.2%	90.3	B	CA	San Bernardino	104	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1643	WADSWORTH POINTE	5.2%	90.3	B	OH	WADSWORTH	64	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1644	GREEN RIDGE CARE CENTER	5.2%	90.3	B	PA	SCRANTON	95	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1645	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY WAGNER	5.2%	90.3	F	SD	WAGNER	0	—
1646	WELLBROOKE OF CRAWFORDSVILLE	5.2%	90.2	D	IN	CRAWFORDSVILLE	70	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
1647	REGENCY OLYMPIA REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	5.2%	90.2	B	WA	OLYMPIA	28	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
1648	MAJESTIC CARE OF SOUTH BEND	5.2%	90.2	F	IN	SOUTH BEND	103	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1649	EDENWALD	5.2%	90.2	A	MD	TOWSON	70	—
1650	PRUITTHEALTH - MACON	5.2%	90.2	C	GA	MACON	228	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC

Showing 1,601–1,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.