Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,351–1,400

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1351	Emerald Trace	2.0%	91.2	A	KY	Elsmere	54	—
1352	ARTHUR B HODGES CENTER, THE	2.0%	91.2	A	WV	CHARLESTON	20	—
1353	WHARTON NURSING HOME	2.0%	91.2	B	TN	PLEASANT HILL	62	—
1354	COLONIAL SPRINGS HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.0%	91.2	B	MO	BUFFALO	134	—
1355	McIntosh Senior Living	2.0%	91.2	A	MN	MCINTOSH	45	—
1356	SUNNY VISTA LIVING CENTER	2.0%	91.2	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	116	—
1357	Westhills Village Health Care Facility	2.0%	91.1	A	SD	RAPID CITY	44	—
1358	MRC CREEKSIDE	2.0%	91.1	B	TX	HUNTSVILLE	66	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
1359	St Francis Home	2.0%	91.1	B	WI	Fond du Lac	90	SSM HEALTH CARE OF WISCONSIN INC
1360	MEADOWOOD	2.0%	91.1	A	PA	LANSDALE	59	—
1361	OUR LADY OF HOPE HEALTH CENTER	2.0%	91.1	A	VA	RICHMOND	75	—
1362	CARITAS CENTER, INC	2.0%	91.1	A	KS	WICHITA	22	—
1363	PARK VIEW HOME	2.0%	91.1	A	WI	WOODVILLE	50	—
1364	LAUDERDALE CHRISTIAN NURSING HOME	2.0%	91.1	A	AL	KILLEN	58	—
1365	REGINALD P WHITE NURSING FACILITY	2.0%	91.1	B	MS	MERIDIAN	70	—
1366	MATULAITIS REHABILITATION & SKILLED CARE	2.0%	91.1	A	CT	PUTNAM	119	—
1367	Samaritan Bethany Home On Eighth	2.0%	91.1	B	MN	ROCHESTER	128	—
1368	THE MEADOWS AT OSBORN PARK	2.0%	91.1	A	OH	HURON	130	—
1369	SINGING RIVER SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	1.9%	91.0	D	MS	PASCAGOULA	54	SINGING RIVER HEALTH SYSTEM
1370	NewBridge on the Charles Skilled Nursing Facility	1.9%	91.0	C	MA	DEDHAM	48	HEBREW SENIORLIFE INC
1371	Villa Marin	1.9%	91.0	A	CA	SAN RAFAEL	31	—
1372	Mission at Community Living Rehabilitation Center	1.9%	91.0	B	UT	Centerfield	46	GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
1373	TRINITY HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.9%	91.0	A	MS	COLUMBUS	60	—
1374	ELISEO	1.9%	91.0	C	WA	TACOMA	187	—
1375	Barron Center	1.9%	91.0	A	ME	PORTLAND	219	—
1376	WEBSTER HOUSE	1.9%	91.0	A	CA	PALO ALTO	145	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
1377	VILLA ST FRANCIS CATHOLIC CARE CENTER INC	1.9%	91.0	A	KS	OLATHE	170	—
1378	MONTGOMERY PLACE	1.9%	91.0	C	IL	CHICAGO	40	—
1379	BLESSING HOSPITAL SNU	1.9%	91.0	A	IL	QUINCY	20	BLESSING CORPORATE SERVICES INC
1380	Florence Home	1.9%	91.0	C	NE	OMAHA	126	—
1381	NORTHERN MANOR GERIATRIC CENTER INC	1.9%	91.0	B	NY	NANUET	231	—
1382	SPRINGHILL SENIOR RESIDENCE	1.9%	91.0	B	AL	MOBILE	151	—
1383	BROOKSVILLE HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.9%	91.0	C	FL	BROOKSVILLE	180	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
1384	HEAVENER NURSING & REHAB	1.9%	91.0	A	OK	HEAVENER	84	—
1385	GOLDEN AGE LIVING CENTER	1.9%	91.0	B	MO	STOVER	61	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME DISTRICT
1386	MEMORIAL MANOR	1.9%	91.0	B	FL	PEMBROKE PINES	120	—
1387	SOUTHERN INYO HOSPITAL D/P SNF	1.9%	91.0	B	CA	LONE PINE	33	—
1388	STEVENS COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU DBA PIONEER MANOR	1.9%	91.0	A	KS	HUGOTON	77	—
1389	RAINBOW TERRACE CARE CENTER	1.9%	90.9	C	OK	WELEETKA	60	—
1390	DEUPREE COTTAGES	1.9%	90.9	A	OH	CINCINNATI	24	EPISCOPAL RETIREMENT HOMES INC
1391	SPRINGS OF MOORESVILLE, THE	1.9%	90.9	C	IN	MOORESVILLE	70	HARRISON COUNTY HOSPITAL
1392	H & J VONDERLIETH LVG CTR, THE	1.9%	90.9	B	IL	MOUNT PULASKI	90	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
1393	BARCLAY FRIENDS	1.9%	90.9	A	PA	WEST CHESTER	64	—
1394	Edna Tina Wilson Living Center	1.9%	90.9	A	NY	Rochester	120	—
1395	Seneca Nursing & Rehabilitation Center, LLC	1.9%	90.9	A	NY	Waterloo	120	—
1396	GOODWILL MENNONITE HOME, INC.	1.9%	90.9	A	MD	GRANTSVILLE	107	—
1397	DAKOTA ALPHA	1.9%	90.9	A	ND	MANDAN	20	—
1398	PLYMOUTH PLACE	1.9%	90.9	B	IL	LA GRANGE PARK	86	—
1399	APPLETON CITY MANOR	1.9%	90.9	F	MO	APPLETON CITY	60	—
1400	COVERED BRIDGE HEALTH CAMPUS	1.9%	90.9	C	IN	SEYMOUR	78	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP

Showing 1,351–1,400 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.