Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,001–2,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2001	Tradewater Pointe	4.7%	88.1	A	KY	Dawson Springs	60	JAMES LOWRY FAMILY IRRV TR
2002	Medina Valley Health & Rehabilitation Center	4.7%	88.1	C	TX	Castroville	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2003	HAVEN OF COTTONWOOD	4.7%	88.1	F	AZ	COTTONWOOD	80	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
2004	BRIDGEPORT HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.7%	88.1	A	OH	PORTSMOUTH	99	RRW LLC
2005	Brighton Post Acute Care	4.7%	88.1	D	MA	BRIGHTON	78	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
2006	INTEGRITY HC OF ANNA	4.7%	88.1	F	IL	ANNA	70	—
2007	WEST GABLES HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.7%	88.1	A	FL	MIAMI	120	—
2008	BRADEN RIVER REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	4.7%	88.1	B	FL	BRADENTON	208	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2009	PINE GROVE HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE, LP	4.7%	88.1	C	CA	SAN GABRIEL	75	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
2010	CENTER ON AGING AND HEALTH	4.7%	88.1	B	TN	ERWIN	120	BROAD RIVER REHABILITATION
2011	MURFREESBORO REHAB AND NURSING, INC	4.7%	88.1	A	AR	MURFREESBORO	66	—
2012	PINE POINT CENTER	4.7%	88.1	A	ME	SCARBOROUGH	61	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2013	CREEKSIDE CENTER	4.7%	88.1	A	CA	STOCKTON	75	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2014	PARK HEALTH CENTER	4.7%	88.1	B	OH	ST CLAIRSVILLE	87	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2015	BEREA HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	4.7%	88.1	B	VA	FREDERICKSBURG	90	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2016	SYCAMORE RUN NURSING AND REHAB CTR	4.7%	88.1	B	OH	MILLERSBURG	108	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2017	GILMAN HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.7%	88.1	F	IL	GILMAN	99	—
2018	Harnett Woods Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.7%	88.1	A	NC	Dunn	100	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
2019	LIFE CARE CENTER OF LITTLETON	4.7%	88.1	B	CO	LITTLETON	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2020	LANDMARK OF BATON ROUGE	4.7%	88.0	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	144	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2021	Cascadia of Nampa	4.7%	88.0	C	ID	Nampa	100	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
2022	SANDPIPER HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.7%	88.0	A	KS	WICHITA	104	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
2023	THE HEALTHCARE RESORT OF TOPEKA	4.7%	88.0	B	KS	TOPEKA	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2024	LYNWOOD POST ACUTE CARE CENTER	4.7%	88.0	C	CA	LYNWOOD	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
2025	WEST MELBOURNE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.7%	88.0	C	FL	WEST MELBOURNE	180	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
2026	HICKORY CREEK AT SCOTTSBURG	4.7%	88.0	A	IN	SCOTTSBURG	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
2027	Autumn Care of Drexel	4.7%	87.9	B	NC	Morganton	100	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2028	Rocky Mountain Care - Hunter Hollow	4.7%	87.9	C	UT	West Valley City	124	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
2029	PINE RIDGE CARE CENTER	4.7%	87.9	A	CA	SAN RAFAEL	101	GRANCARE LLC
2030	WILLOW SPRINGS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CTR	4.7%	87.9	D	NJ	BRICK	164	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
2031	Signature Healthcare of Carrollton Rehab & Wellnes	4.7%	87.9	C	KY	Carrollton	78	WHEATEN LLC
2032	Rivergate Health Care Center	4.7%	87.9	B	MI	Riverview	223	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2033	HOMESTEAD II	4.7%	87.9	A	OH	PAINESVILLE	46	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2034	LAKEPOINT AUGUSTA, LLC	4.7%	87.9	D	KS	AUGUSTA	88	MANHATTAN RETIREMENT FOUNDATION INC
2035	JULIA TEMPLE HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.7%	87.9	A	CO	ENGLEWOOD	128	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2036	Hartford Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	4.7%	87.9	B	MI	Detroit	188	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2037	SUNTERRA SPRINGS DARDENNE PRAIRIE	4.7%	87.9	D	MO	DARDENNE PRAIRIE	38	BALL VENTURES LLC
2038	Signature Healthcare of Glasgow Rehab & Wellness C	4.7%	87.9	A	KY	Glasgow	68	WHEATEN LLC
2039	Magnolia Manor - Inman	4.7%	87.9	B	SC	Inman	176	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
2040	Avir at North Richland Hills	4.7%	87.9	C	TX	North Richland Hills	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2041	REGENCY REDMOND REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	4.7%	87.9	A	OR	REDMOND	50	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
2042	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF PICAYUNE	4.7%	87.9	C	MS	PICAYUNE	120	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
2043	Mt. Olympus Rehabilitation Center	4.7%	87.9	C	UT	Salt Lake City	100	CASCADES HEALTHCARE LLC
2044	Landmark of Lincoln Park Rehabilitation and Nursin	4.7%	87.9	F	IL	CHICAGO	178	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
2045	HI-LINE RETIREMENT CENTER	4.7%	87.9	B	MT	MALTA	56	—
2046	LAURELS OF NORWORTH THE	4.7%	87.9	C	OH	WORTHINGTON	126	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2047	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - BLOOMINGTON CARE CENTER	4.7%	87.9	C	IN	BLOOMINGTON	153	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
2048	CHAMPION CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.7%	87.9	D	PA	PITTSBURGH	187	—
2049	THE GOLDEN RULE HOME	4.7%	87.8	D	OK	SHAWNEE	83	—
2050	GARDEN VIEW CARE CENTER	4.7%	87.8	B	MO	O FALLON	80	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC

Showing 2,001–2,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.