Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,151–2,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2151	VILLAS AT SUNNY ACRES, THE	4.5%	87.2	C	CO	THORNTON	160	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2152	VICTORIA POST ACUTE CARE	4.5%	87.2	A	CA	EL CAJON	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2153	DECATUR REHAB & HEALTH CARE CT	4.5%	87.2	D	IL	DECATUR	58	—
2154	SHARON LANE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	4.5%	87.2	B	KS	SHAWNEE	78	—
2155	ALTERA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.5%	87.2	C	AL	FAIRHOPE	83	GNH IRRV TR
2156	FARMVILLE HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	4.5%	87.2	B	VA	FARMVILLE	120	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2157	OKEMAH CARE CENTER	4.5%	87.2	C	OK	OKEMAH	76	—
2158	FALL RIVER HEALTHCARE	4.5%	87.2	C	MA	FALL RIVER	176	NEXT STEP HEALTHCARE LLC
2159	PEABODY HEALTH AND REHAB	4.5%	87.2	B	KS	PEABODY	45	BARRES LLC
2160	Heartland Ridge Care Center	4.5%	87.2	B	NE	Lincoln	47	—
2161	MAYWOOD SKILLED NURSING & WELLNESS CENTRE	4.5%	87.2	C	CA	MAYWOOD	133	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
2162	ALAMO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.5%	87.2	B	TN	ALAMO	121	—
2163	MIDWEST CITY POST ACUTE & REHAB	4.5%	87.2	D	OK	MIDWEST CITY	106	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
2164	BRANDON COURT	4.5%	87.2	A	MS	BRANDON	100	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2165	Avir at Magnolia	4.5%	87.2	C	TX	Luling	0	GONZALES HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS
2166	VALLEY VIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.5%	87.2	B	IN	ELKHART	94	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
2167	POWAY HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.5%	87.2	A	CA	POWAY	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2168	The Beach Post-Acute	4.5%	87.2	D	CA	LONG BEACH	98	COVENANT CARE LLC
2169	MERIT HEALTH WESLEY	4.5%	87.1	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	25	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2170	Liberty Care & Rehabilitation Center	4.5%	87.1	F	KY	Liberty	97	WHEATEN LLC
2171	AURORA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	4.5%	87.1	B	MS	COLUMBUS	120	ORAND LP
2172	Signature Healthcare at Colonial Rehab & Wellness	4.5%	87.1	F	KY	Bardstown	65	WHEATEN LLC
2173	KINGSTON CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE	4.5%	87.1	A	RI	WEST KINGSTON	55	—
2174	EMERALD CARE CENTER MIDWEST	4.5%	87.1	C	OK	MIDWEST CITY	116	—
2175	HEMET VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.5%	87.1	A	CA	HEMET	113	—
2176	Tucker Park Crossing of Journey LLC	4.5%	87.1	F	GA	TUCKER	144	BARRES LLC
2177	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF MEMPHIS	4.5%	87.1	B	TN	MEMPHIS	140	WHEATEN LLC
2178	Southpointe Healthcare and Rehabilitation	4.5%	87.1	B	SC	Greenville	120	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
2179	Northampton Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.5%	87.1	A	NC	Jackson	80	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
2180	Medilodge of Hillman	4.5%	87.1	B	MI	Hillman	39	B&Y TRUST
2181	Kingston Health Center of Fort Wayne	4.5%	87.1	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	137	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2182	West Bloomfield Health and Rehabilitation Center	4.5%	87.1	A	MI	West Bloomfield	172	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2183	GRANDVIEW POST ACUTE	4.5%	87.1	B	TN	COOKEVILLE	120	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
2184	THE CENTER AT GRANDE	4.5%	87.1	A	TX	TYLER	96	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
2185	ANAHEIM TERRACE CARE CENTER	4.5%	87.1	C	CA	ANAHEIM	99	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2186	CHERRY RIDGE	4.5%	87.1	B	LA	BASTROP	110	DELTA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2187	CORAL HARBOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.5%	87.1	B	NJ	NEPTUNE CITY	110	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
2188	Plymouth Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	4.5%	87.1	C	MA	PLYMOUTH	186	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
2189	IMPERIAL CARE CENTER	4.5%	87.1	B	NJ	NEPTUNE	121	—
2190	Highland Place Rehab and Nursing Center	4.5%	87.1	D	LA	Shreveport	227	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
2191	NHC HEALTHCARE, OAK RIDGE	4.5%	87.0	A	TN	OAK RIDGE	128	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
2192	Pine Meadows Post Acute	4.5%	87.0	A	KY	Lexington	120	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2193	Benton Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	4.5%	87.0	D	IL	BENTON	67	—
2194	ST CATHERINE'S C C OF FOSTORIA	4.5%	87.0	C	OH	FOSTORIA	56	HCF INC
2195	ALDEN ESTATES OF BARRINGTON	4.5%	87.0	D	IL	BARRINGTON	150	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2196	EVERCARE OF BREESE	4.5%	87.0	C	IL	BREESE	112	—
2197	HOLBROOK HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.5%	87.0	A	WV	BUCKHANNON	120	RRW LLC
2198	KADIMA REHABILITATION & NURSING AT WASHINGTON	4.5%	87.0	C	PA	WASHINGTON	74	KADIMA HEALTHCARE GROUP INC
2199	STRATFORD COMMONS REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.5%	87.0	D	KS	OVERLAND PARK	60	TUTERA INVESTMENTS LLC
2200	GREENVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.5%	87.0	C	MO	GREENVILLE	60	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC

Showing 2,151–2,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.