Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,151–2,200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2151	Community Memorial Continuing Care Center	1.0%	86.0	A	CA	Ojai	75	—
2152	MCKINNEY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.0%	85.9	C	TX	MCKINNEY	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2153	Royal of Fairhaven Nursing Center	1.0%	85.9	B	MA	FAIRHAVEN	107	—
2154	WICHITA PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	1.0%	85.9	A	KS	WICHITA	50	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
2155	PASADENA PARK HEALTHCARE AND WELLNESS CENTER	1.0%	85.9	B	CA	PASADENA	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
2156	ROYAL OAK NURSING CENTER	1.0%	85.9	B	FL	DADE CITY	120	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
2157	ELK RIVER HEALTH & REHABILITATION OF FAYETTEVILLE	1.0%	85.9	B	TN	FAYETTEVILLE	79	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
2158	AVIR AT GONZALES	1.0%	85.9	A	TX	GONZALES	0	GONZALES HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS
2159	PINECREST MANOR	1.0%	85.9	B	PA	ST MARYS	138	PENN HIGHLANDS HEALTHCARE INC
2160	Clement Manor Health Care Center	1.0%	85.9	A	WI	GREENFIELD	50	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHRISTIAN CHARITY SPONSORED MINISTRIES INC
2161	MAJESTIC CARE OF MCCORDSVILLE	1.0%	85.9	B	IN	MCCORDSVILLE	48	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
2162	COMMUNITIES AT INDIAN HAVEN,	1.0%	85.9	B	PA	INDIANA	108	—
2163	GROVE NURSING CENTER	1.0%	85.9	B	OK	GROVE	133	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
2164	Bethesda	1.0%	85.9	A	MN	WILLMAR	248	—
2165	Jackson County Medical Care Facility	1.0%	85.9	A	MI	Jackson	194	—
2166	ST. BARBARA'S MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	1.0%	85.9	A	WV	MONONGAH	57	—
2167	MORRISON NURSING HOME	1.0%	85.9	C	NH	WHITEFIELD	57	—
2168	SNYDER NURSING HOME	1.0%	85.8	A	VA	SALEM	45	—
2169	ROLLING HILLS REHAB CTR	1.0%	85.8	A	WI	SPARTA	50	BROAD RIVER REHABILITATION
2170	MILL POND HEALTH CAMPUS	1.0%	85.8	C	IN	GREENCASTLE	68	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
2171	WHEAT STATE MANOR	1.0%	85.8	B	KS	WHITEWATER	65	GRACE TEAM LLC
2172	Ecumen North Branch	1.0%	85.8	B	MN	NORTH BRANCH	50	ECUMEN
2173	FIRESIDE HOUSE OF CENTRALIA	1.0%	85.8	D	IL	CENTRALIA	98	—
2174	N Y S VETERANS HOME	1.0%	85.8	B	NY	OXFORD	242	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
2175	PROGRESSIVE CARE CENTER	1.0%	85.8	B	LA	SHREVEPORT	48	—
2176	SMOKY MOUNTAIN POST-ACUTE AND REHABILITATION CENTE	1.0%	85.8	F	TN	PIGEON FORGE	120	—
2177	TOWNER COUNTY LIVING CTR	1.0%	85.8	A	ND	CANDO	28	—
2178	First Care Living Center	1.0%	85.8	A	MN	FOSSTON	50	ESSENTIA HEALTH
2179	JEFFERSON PARK AT WHITE PINE	1.0%	85.8	A	TN	WHITE PINE	30	—
2180	RENNES HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER-WESTON	1.0%	85.8	B	WI	WESTON	130	—
2181	Arizona State Veteran Home - Yuma	1.0%	85.8	A	AZ	YUMA	80	STATE OF ARIZONA STATE DEPT OF FINANCE
2182	Bethesda Of Beresford	1.0%	85.7	A	SD	BERESFORD	39	CARING PROFESSIONALS INC
2183	GIBSON HEALTH OPCO LLC	1.0%	85.7	A	GA	GIBSON	104	—
2184	PEBBLEBROOK HEALTH CENTER AT PARK SPRINGS	1.0%	85.7	B	GA	STONE MOUNTAIN	60	ISAKSON LIVING INC
2185	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES AT BREEZE PARK	1.0%	85.7	B	MO	SAINT CHARLES	50	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
2186	UNITED PIONEER HOME	1.0%	85.7	A	WI	LUCK	50	—
2187	Eastern Star Masonic Home	1.0%	85.7	B	IA	Boone	76	ECSI INC
2188	STEELVILLE SENIOR LIVING	1.0%	85.7	D	MO	STEELVILLE	72	—
2189	MOUNT CARMEL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.0%	85.7	A	NH	MANCHESTER	122	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
2190	SUNSET ESTATES OF PURCELL	1.0%	85.7	B	OK	PURCELL	69	—
2191	CLARA CITY CARE CENTER	1.0%	85.7	B	MN	CLARA CITY	48	—
2192	OAK LANE WELLNESS & REHABILITATIVE CENTER	1.0%	85.7	C	LA	EUNICE	130	—
2193	THE COMMONS ON ST ANTHONY, A S N F & SHORT T R C	1.0%	85.7	C	NY	AUBURN	297	LORETTO MANAGEMENT CORP
2194	MASONIC VILLAGE AT WARMINSTER	1.0%	85.7	A	PA	WARMINSTER	43	MASONIC VILLAGES OF THE GRAND LODGE OF PENNSYLVANIA
2195	SAMARITAN CARE CENTER AND VILLA	1.0%	85.7	C	OH	MEDINA	56	AHF MANAGEMENT CORP
2196	Pioneer Care Center	1.0%	85.7	A	MN	FERGUS FALLS	105	—
2197	JULIA POUND CARE CENTER	1.0%	85.7	C	PA	INDIANA	96	PHI
2198	HERITAGE INN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.0%	85.7	C	GA	STATESBORO	92	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2199	QUYANNA CARE CENTER	1.0%	85.6	A	AK	NOME	18	—
2200	DELAWARE VALLEY VETERAN'S HOME	1.0%	85.6	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	171	—

Showing 2,151–2,200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.