Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,451–2,500

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2451	Presbyterian Communities Of South Carolina-Florenc	0.8%	84.0	B	SC	Florence	25	PRESBYTERIAN COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
2452	Cypress at Lake Providence	0.8%	84.0	C	LA	LAKE PROVIDENCE	108	—
2453	NOWATA NURSING CENTER	0.8%	84.0	B	OK	NOWATA	65	—
2454	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH & REHABILITATION SANDERS	0.8%	84.0	C	VA	GLOUCESTER	55	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
2455	Vancrest-Upper Valley	0.8%	84.0	B	OH	TROY	127	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
2456	CARLSBAD BY THE SEA	0.8%	84.0	A	CA	CARLSBAD	33	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
2457	JONES & CABACOY VETERANS CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.9	A	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	128	—
2458	CHANDLER THERAPY & LIVING CENTER LLC	0.8%	83.9	C	OK	CHANDLER	76	—
2459	THE METHODIST HOSPITAL SNF	0.8%	83.9	B	TX	HOUSTON	25	—
2460	Essentia Health Northern Pines Medical Center	0.8%	83.9	A	MN	AURORA	33	ESSENTIA HEALTH
2461	DUNSEITH COM NURSING HOME	0.8%	83.9	B	ND	DUNSEITH	30	—
2462	St Andre Health Care Facility	0.8%	83.9	A	ME	BIDDEFORD	96	COVENANT HEALTH
2463	Bronson Commons	0.8%	83.9	A	MI	Mattawan	100	BRONSON HEALTH CARE GROUP INC
2464	ARCHBOLD LIVING THOMASVILLE	0.8%	83.9	A	GA	THOMASVILLE	64	JOHN D ARCHBOLD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
2465	MILLER HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.9	C	IL	KANKAKEE	160	—
2466	AVERA MARYHOUSE LONG TERM CARE	0.8%	83.9	A	SD	PIERRE	80	AVERA HEALTH
2467	PIONEER LODGE	0.8%	83.9	A	KS	COLDWATER	25	—
2468	Essentia Health Oak Crossing	0.8%	83.9	B	MN	DETROIT LAKES	94	ESSENTIA HEALTH
2469	JERSEYVILLE MANOR	0.8%	83.9	A	IL	JERSEYVILLE	155	—
2470	HILLSIDE HEIGHTS REHABILITATION SUITES	0.8%	83.9	C	TX	AMARILLO	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2471	Good Samaritan Society - Colonial Villa	0.8%	83.9	B	NE	Alma	53	SANFORD
2472	Monroe Community Hospital	0.8%	83.9	D	NY	Rochester	566	—
2473	HILLVIEW HEALTH CARE CTR	0.8%	83.9	A	WI	LA CROSSE	37	COUNTY OF LA CROSSE
2474	SEQUOIAS SAN FRANCISCO CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.8%	83.9	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	50	SEQUOIA LIVING INC
2475	C C YOUNG MEMORIAL HOME	0.8%	83.9	B	TX	DALLAS	129	—
2476	OLNEY REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.9	C	TX	OLNEY	0	OLNEY HAMILTON HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2477	LIBERTY NURSING CENTER OF MANSFIELD	0.8%	83.9	B	OH	MANSFIELD	68	—
2478	Ledgewood Manor	0.8%	83.9	B	ME	WINDHAM	60	—
2479	Thornapple Manor	0.8%	83.9	B	MI	Hastings	161	—
2480	INGLESIDE AT KING FARM	0.8%	83.9	A	MD	ROCKVILLE	45	WESTMINSTER INGLESIDE KING FARM RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
2481	LUTHERAN SUNSET HOME	0.8%	83.8	A	ND	GRAFTON	87	—
2482	CENTER ON AGING AND HEALTH	0.8%	83.8	B	TN	ERWIN	120	BROAD RIVER REHABILITATION
2483	Community Memorial Health Center	0.8%	83.8	C	NE	Burwell	64	—
2484	CONCORD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	83.8	A	NJ	LAKEWOOD	120	—
2485	D'Youville Senior Care	0.8%	83.8	B	MA	LOWELL	208	—
2486	VILLAGE AT ST EDWARD NRSG CARE	0.8%	83.8	A	OH	FAIRLAWN	81	—
2487	GREENWOOD HOUSE HOME FOR THE JEWISH AGED	0.8%	83.8	C	NJ	TRENTON	137	—
2488	Bethesda Home of Aberdeen	0.8%	83.8	B	SD	ABERDEEN	86	—
2489	APPLE REHAB SAYBROOK	0.8%	83.8	B	CT	OLD SAYBROOK	120	—
2490	Plaza Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	0.8%	83.8	C	NJ	ELIZABETH	128	—
2491	SIESTA KEY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	83.8	F	FL	SARASOTA	120	—
2492	Brookefield Park	0.8%	83.6	B	NE	ST Paul	70	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
2493	FAITH LUTHERAN HOME	0.8%	83.6	B	MT	WOLF POINT	60	—
2494	ARCADIA RETIREMENT RESIDENCE	0.8%	83.6	A	HI	HONOLULU	91	ARCADIA ELDER SERVICES
2495	Milwaukee Health and Rehab	0.8%	83.6	B	WI	MILWAUKEE	95	—
2496	PONCA CITY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	83.6	C	OK	PONCA CITY	157	HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA LLC
2497	MANOR COURT OF MARYVILLE	0.8%	83.6	B	IL	MARYVILLE	132	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
2498	ST BARNABAS NURSING HOME	0.8%	83.6	A	PA	GIBSONIA	119	ST BARNABAS CLINICAL SERVICES INC
2499	ORCHARD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	83.6	D	GA	PULASKI	89	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2500	LOGAN MANOR COMMUNITY HEALTH SERVICES	0.8%	83.6	B	KS	LOGAN	36	—

Showing 2,451–2,500 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.