Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,551–2,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2551	VAN WERT MANOR	4.1%	84.9	C	OH	VAN WERT	62	HCF INC
2552	MEADOW LAKES	4.1%	84.9	A	IN	MOORESVILLE	137	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
2553	STONECROFT HEALTH CAMPUS	4.1%	84.9	C	IN	BLOOMINGTON	70	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
2554	ALTERCARE OF HARTVILLE CTR FOR	4.1%	84.9	C	OH	HARTVILLE	95	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
2555	LIFE CARE CENTER OF AUBURN	4.1%	84.9	B	MA	AUBURN	154	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2556	The Villa at Parkridge	4.1%	84.9	C	MI	Ypsilanti	144	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
2557	GRANDE LAKE HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.0%	84.8	C	OH	ST MARYS	45	RRW LLC
2558	Jonesboro Center for Nursing and Healing LLC	4.0%	84.8	C	GA	JONESBORO	129	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2559	Signature Healthcare at Jefferson Place Rehab & We	4.0%	84.8	B	KY	Louisville	96	WHEATEN LLC
2560	HAVEN OF SHOW LOW	4.0%	84.8	F	AZ	SHOW LOW	58	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
2561	DALLAS RETIREMENT VILLAGE HEALTH CENTER	4.0%	84.8	B	OR	DALLAS	121	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2562	AUTUMN CARE OF SUFFOLK	4.0%	84.8	B	VA	SUFFOLK	110	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2563	Green Acres Healthcare	4.0%	84.8	A	KY	Mayfield	60	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
2564	KOKOMO HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.0%	84.8	B	IN	KOKOMO	80	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
2565	Signature Healthcare of South Louisville	4.0%	84.8	B	KY	Louisville	100	WHEATEN LLC
2566	Pope Nursing Home	4.0%	84.8	A	MA	WEYMOUTH	49	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
2567	Forest Springs Health Campus	4.0%	84.8	A	KY	Louisville	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2568	BEREA CENTER	4.0%	84.8	A	OH	BEREA	50	RRW LLC
2569	MORAN MANOR	4.0%	84.8	B	KS	MORAN	45	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
2570	Pinnacle Specialty Care	4.0%	84.8	D	IA	Cedar Falls	100	CARE INITIATIVES
2571	CREEKSIDE TERRACE REHABILITATION	4.0%	84.8	B	TX	BELTON	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2572	Meadow Manor	4.0%	84.8	B	MN	GRAND MEADOW	26	—
2573	LIBERTY RIDGE HEALTH & REHAB	4.0%	84.8	A	VA	LYNCHBURG	90	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2574	HAYWARD HILLS HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.0%	84.7	A	CA	HAYWARD	74	GRANCARE LLC
2575	GROVE OF NORTHBROOK,THE	4.0%	84.7	F	IL	NORTHBROOK	134	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
2576	CYPRESS POINTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING	4.0%	84.7	C	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	90	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
2577	CIVIC CENTER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	4.0%	84.7	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	95	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
2578	HILLSVILLE HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	4.0%	84.7	A	VA	HILLSVILLE	60	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2579	LIFE CARE CENTER AT WELLS CROSSING	4.0%	84.7	A	FL	ORANGE PARK	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2580	Emerald Health & Rehab Center	4.0%	84.7	A	NC	Lillington	96	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2581	SOUTH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	4.0%	84.7	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	83	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
2582	Aristos Nursing and Rehabilitation	4.0%	84.7	D	OH	CLEVELAND	57	AAA EMINENT LLC
2583	PROMENADE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	4.0%	84.7	A	AR	ROGERS	114	ROBERT V RYE LIV TR DTD 10042022
2584	HIGH VIEW REHABILITATION AND LIVING CENTER	4.0%	84.7	B	ME	MADAWASKA	51	—
2585	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ELYRIA	4.0%	84.7	C	OH	ELYRIA	99	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2586	THE LILAC AT SILVER PALMS	4.0%	84.7	D	FL	NORTH MIAMI	104	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
2587	Montecito Post Acute Care and Rehabilitation	4.0%	84.7	A	AZ	MESA	222	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2588	CAREONE AT EAST BRUNSWICK	4.0%	84.6	C	NJ	EAST BRUNSWICK	132	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2589	FAIRVIEW MANOR	4.0%	84.6	C	PA	FAIRVIEW	121	HCF INC
2590	Cheviot Hills Post Acute	4.0%	84.6	D	CA	Los Angeles	99	9560 PICO LLC
2591	TRACY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.0%	84.6	A	CA	TRACY	62	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
2592	MEDICALODGES ARKANSAS CITY	4.0%	84.6	C	KS	ARKANSAS CITY	45	MEDICALODGES INC
2593	Heritage Nursing and Rehabilitation Community	4.0%	84.6	A	MI	Zeeland	39	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
2594	PRATT HEALTH AND REHAB	4.0%	84.6	C	KS	PRATT	45	BARRES LLC
2595	PortagePointe	4.0%	84.6	B	MI	Hancock	60	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
2596	WEST HILLS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.0%	84.6	B	CA	CANOGA PARK	145	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
2597	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKD CARE CENTER AT LIMA ESTATES	4.0%	84.6	A	PA	LIMA	60	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2598	Kent Regency Center	4.0%	84.6	B	RI	Warwick	153	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2599	ALMADEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.0%	84.6	A	CA	SAN JOSE	77	GRANCARE LLC
2600	MANHATTAN COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	4.0%	84.6	C	MS	JACKSON	180	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN

Showing 2,551–2,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.