Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,501–2,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2501	MERIDIAN REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.1%	85.2	C	KS	WICHITA	106	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2502	COOSA VALLEY HEALTH AND REHAB	4.1%	85.1	B	AL	GLENCOE	124	—
2503	CareOne at The Highlands	4.1%	85.1	C	NJ	EDISON	122	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2504	Pettigrew Rehabilitation Center	4.1%	85.1	A	NC	Durham	96	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2505	Riverview Health Care Center	4.1%	85.1	D	KY	Prestonsburg	121	WHEATEN LLC
2506	NHC HEALTHCARE, PULASKI	4.1%	85.1	B	TN	PULASKI	102	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
2507	Dunbar Center	4.1%	85.1	B	WV	DUNBAR	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2508	Pocola Health and Rehab	4.1%	85.1	F	OK	Pocola	90	—
2509	Rock Creek Care Center	4.1%	85.1	A	CA	Auburn	84	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2510	PORTAGEVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.1%	85.1	C	MO	PORTAGEVILLE	60	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2511	PRUITTHEALTH - SAVANNAH	4.1%	85.1	C	GA	SAVANNAH	140	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2512	JEFFERSON HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.1%	85.1	B	OH	JEFFERSON	90	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2513	Cedar Creek Post Acute	4.1%	85.1	B	TN	MOUNT JULIET	106	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
2514	LIFE CARE CENTER OF COLLEGEDALE	4.1%	85.1	A	TN	COLLEGEDALE	124	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2515	ShorePointe Nursing Center	4.1%	85.1	B	MI	St. Clair Shores	200	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
2516	HERITAGE HILLS LIVING & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	85.1	B	OK	MCALESTER	81	—
2517	LAKE POINTE HEALTH CARE	4.1%	85.1	A	OH	LORAIN	99	RRW LLC
2518	WARNER ROBINS REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	85.1	A	GA	WARNER ROBINS	126	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2519	Kirkwood Manor	4.1%	85.1	C	TX	New Braunfels	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
2520	Meridian Care of Hebbronville	4.1%	85.1	B	TX	Hebbronville	60	—
2521	Royalton Manor, LLC	4.1%	85.1	D	MI	St Joseph	123	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2522	Legend Oaks Healthcare and Rehabilitation-Kyle	4.1%	85.1	B	TX	Kyle	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
2523	Trellis Chino	4.1%	85.1	A	CA	Chino	59	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2524	Hillcrest Health & Rehab	4.1%	85.1	A	NE	Bellevue	151	HILLCREST HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2525	HEALTH CENTER AT GALLOWAY, THE	4.1%	85.0	C	NJ	GALLOWAY TOWNSHIP	120	TWOMAGNETS LLC
2526	Raleigh Rehabilitation Center	4.1%	85.0	C	NC	Raleigh	157	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2527	Good Samaritan Society - Bloomfield	4.1%	85.0	C	NE	Bloomfield	70	SANFORD
2528	THREE MEADOWS POST ACUTE	4.1%	85.0	B	OH	PERRYSBURG	120	DMD MANAGEMENT INC
2529	The Willows At East Lansing	4.1%	85.0	B	MI	East Lansing	65	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2530	SUMTER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, L L C	4.1%	85.0	A	AL	YORK	125	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
2531	TERRACE VIEW GARDENS	4.1%	85.0	A	OH	CINCINNATI	82	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2532	FREEDOM SQUARE HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.1%	85.0	A	FL	SEMINOLE	116	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2533	LEGACY MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	85.0	B	MS	GREENVILLE	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2534	ARBORS AT FAIRLAWN THE	4.1%	85.0	B	OH	FAIRLAWN	88	B&Y TRUST
2535	HCA HOUSTON HEALTHCARE SOUTHEAST	4.1%	84.9	A	TX	PASADENA	30	HCA HEALTHCARE INC
2536	NORMANDY NURSING CENTER	4.1%	84.9	D	MO	SAINT LOUIS	116	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
2537	LODI NURSING & REHABILITATION	4.1%	84.9	B	CA	LODI	74	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
2538	BELLA TERRA MORTON GROVE	4.1%	84.9	F	IL	MORTON GROVE	211	—
2539	BOWERSTON HILLS NURSING & REHABILITATION	4.1%	84.9	A	OH	BOWERSTON	25	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
2540	LLANFAIR HOUSE CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	84.9	F	NJ	WAYNE	180	—
2541	REGENCY HARMONY HOUSE REHAB & NURSING	4.1%	84.9	A	WA	BREWSTER	54	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
2542	NORTHLAND REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.1%	84.9	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	118	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2543	LAMAR HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	84.9	D	MS	LUMBERTON	120	—
2544	SAN FRANCISCO POST ACUTE	4.1%	84.9	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	53	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2545	EAST GLEN	4.1%	84.9	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	108	ASCENSION HEALTH ALLIANCE
2546	NIXA NURSING & REHAB	4.1%	84.9	C	MO	NIXA	82	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2547	Medilodge of Midland	4.1%	84.9	A	MI	Midand	107	B&Y TRUST
2548	PRUITTHEALTH - COVINGTON	4.1%	84.9	A	GA	COVINGTON	71	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2549	HEIGHT STREET SKILLED CARE	4.1%	84.9	C	CA	BAKERSFIELD	99	HELENE MAYER 2007 IRREVOCABLE EXEMPT TRUST FBO ABRAHAM MAYER DATED DEC
2550	BAKER-KATZ SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR	4.1%	84.9	A	MA	HAVERHILL	77	—

Showing 2,501–2,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.