Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,451–2,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2451	Medilodge of Westwood	4.2%	85.5	C	MI	Kalamazoo	97	B&Y TRUST
2452	GARRISON NURSING HOME & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.2%	85.5	A	TX	GARRISON	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2453	TIFFANY SPRINGS REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTE	4.2%	85.5	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	120	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2454	BATH CREEK ESTATES	4.2%	85.5	B	OH	CUYAHOGA FALLS	99	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2455	Westgate Nursing & Rehabilitation Community	4.2%	85.5	C	MI	Ironwood	65	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
2456	ST CHARLES HEALTH CAMPUS	4.2%	85.5	B	IN	JASPER	68	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
2457	RESPIRATORY AND NURSING CENTER OF DAYTON	4.2%	85.5	A	OH	MORAINE	82	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2458	CALIFORNIA NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.2%	85.4	C	CA	PALM SPRINGS	80	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
2459	LIFE CARE CENTER OF CITRUS COUNTY	4.2%	85.4	A	FL	LECANTO	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2460	WEST LAWRENCE CARE CENTER, L L C	4.2%	85.4	C	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	215	—
2461	Hempfield Manor	4.2%	85.4	C	PA	GREENSBURG	120	HCF INC
2462	REGENCY GRESHAM NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.2%	85.4	A	OR	GRESHAM	128	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
2463	ONION CREEK NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.2%	85.4	B	TX	AUSTIN	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2464	PACIFIC PALMS HEALTHCARE	4.2%	85.4	D	CA	LONG BEACH	133	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
2465	PruittHealth- Orangeburg	4.2%	85.4	B	SC	Orangeburg	88	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2466	PENINSULA POST-ACUTE	4.2%	85.4	A	CA	BURLINGAME	62	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2467	LEGACY HEALTH AND REHAB	4.2%	85.4	C	TN	MANCHESTER	72	—
2468	Sycamore Heights Health and Rehabilitation	4.2%	85.4	C	KY	Louisville	96	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
2469	Cherry Hill Manor	4.2%	85.4	C	RI	Johnston	171	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2470	MADISON HEALTH CARE	4.2%	85.4	A	OH	MADISON	125	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2471	Highlands, The	4.2%	85.4	B	MA	FITCHBURG	168	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2472	ST FRANCES NSG & REHAB CENTER	4.1%	85.3	B	LA	OBERLIN	100	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
2473	CATALINA POST ACUTE AND REHABILITATION	4.1%	85.3	A	AZ	TUCSON	102	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2474	MOUNTAIN VIEW HEALTH CARE	4.1%	85.3	D	GA	CLAYTON	117	R DAVIS HOLDINGS INC
2475	NOVA HEALTH AND REHAB	4.1%	85.3	A	VA	WEBER CITY	90	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2476	Arbor Lake Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation	4.1%	85.3	A	LA	FARMERVILLE	150	JOE KENNETH NEWTON JR QSST TRUST
2477	Pointe Coupee Healthcare	4.1%	85.3	B	LA	New Roads	120	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2478	GOLD CITY HEALTH AND REHAB	4.1%	85.3	D	GA	DAHLONEGA	102	R DAVIS HOLDINGS INC
2479	Augusta Nursing and Rehabilitation	4.1%	85.3	C	VA	FISHERSVILLE	112	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
2480	ST ELIZABETH CARE CENTER	4.1%	85.3	F	MO	SAINT ELIZABETH	63	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2481	INDIANOLA REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.1%	85.3	B	MS	INDIANOLA	75	NEXION HEALTH INC
2482	LAKE PORT SQUARE HEALTH CENTER	4.1%	85.3	A	FL	LEESBURG	80	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2483	MEDICALODGES FRONTENAC	4.1%	85.3	C	KS	FRONTENAC	55	MEDICALODGES INC
2484	LINWOOD MEADOWS CARE CENTER	4.1%	85.3	B	CA	VISALIA	98	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2485	The Grove Care and Wellness	4.1%	85.3	A	CA	RIVERSIDE	38	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2486	WOOD GLEN ALZHEIMER'S COMMUNITY	4.1%	85.3	C	OH	DAYTON	148	RRW LLC
2487	WHITEHAVEN COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	4.1%	85.3	F	TN	MEMPHIS	88	—
2488	ABBYSHIRE PLACE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER L	4.1%	85.3	B	OH	BIDWELL	95	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
2489	CREEKSIDE VILLAGE	4.1%	85.3	B	IN	MISHAWAKA	100	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
2490	SCENIC WELLNESS AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	85.3	B	MO	HERCULANEUM	189	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2491	NORTHRIDGE CARE CENTER	4.1%	85.3	B	CA	RESEDA	97	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
2492	POLARIS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	85.3	F	DE	MILFORD	100	NATIONWIDE HEALTHCARE SERVICES
2493	REPUBLIC NURSING & REHAB	4.1%	85.2	B	MO	REPUBLIC	127	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2494	SPRINGDALE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.1%	85.2	B	AR	SPRINGDALE	140	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
2495	LIFE CARE CENTER OF OCALA	4.1%	85.2	A	FL	OCALA	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2496	LEGACY NURSING AND REHABILITATION OF PLAQUEMINE	4.1%	85.2	F	LA	PLAQUEMINE	151	LEGACY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
2497	CareOne At Wall	4.1%	85.2	D	NJ	WALL	130	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2498	OAKS OF BRECKSVILLE	4.1%	85.2	B	OH	BRECKSVILLE	80	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2499	Camelot Leisure Living	4.1%	85.2	D	LA	Ferriday	91	JOE KENNETH NEWTON JR QSST TRUST
2500	CUBA MANOR INC	4.1%	85.2	B	MO	CUBA	90	—

Showing 2,451–2,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.