Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,251–3,300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3251	PARK ROSE CARE CENTER	3.5%	80.7	D	WA	TACOMA	139	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
3252	SENIOR CARE CENTER - BRUNSWICK	3.5%	80.7	C	GA	BRUNSWICK	200	SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HEALTH SYSTEM INC
3253	MEADOW GROVE TRANSITIONAL CARE	3.5%	80.7	A	OH	GROVE CITY	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3254	RIVIERA PALMS REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	80.7	B	FL	PALMETTO	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3255	St. Joseph's, A Villa Center	3.5%	80.7	C	MI	Hamtramck	169	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
3256	Life Care Center Of Attleboro	3.5%	80.7	A	MA	ATTLEBORO	123	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3257	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT MADISON	3.5%	80.7	B	CT	MADISON	90	AUT CT7 HOLDINGS LLC
3258	Regency at Westland	3.5%	80.7	C	MI	Westland	120	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3259	FOREST HILLS CENTER	3.5%	80.7	A	OH	COLUMBUS	75	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3260	Jacob's Creek Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.5%	80.7	C	NC	Madison	170	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
3261	DELMAR GARDENS OF MERAMEC VALLEY	3.5%	80.6	A	MO	FENTON	190	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
3262	LAUREL BAY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	80.6	D	NJ	KEANSBURG	123	—
3263	FOUNTAIN CIRCLE CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	80.6	A	KY	WINCHESTER	147	WHEATEN LLC
3264	Signature Healthcare of Hart County Rehab & Wellne	3.5%	80.6	B	KY	Horse Cave	104	WHEATEN LLC
3265	LIBERTY HEALTH CARE CENTER INC	3.5%	80.6	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	110	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
3266	DRIFTWOOD HEALTHCARE CENTER - SANTA CRUZ	3.5%	80.6	B	CA	SANTA CRUZ	92	GRANCARE LLC
3267	Signature Healthcare of Elizabethtown	3.5%	80.6	B	KY	Elizabethtown	124	WHEATEN LLC
3268	SOMERFIELD AT THE HERITAGE	3.5%	80.6	B	TN	BRENTWOOD	66	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
3269	FARMERSVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.5%	80.6	D	TX	FARMERSVILLE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3270	MACCLENNY NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	3.5%	80.6	B	FL	MACCLENNY	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3271	ADVANCED REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE OF VERNON	3.5%	80.6	A	TX	VERNON	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
3272	BROOKSIDE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.5%	80.6	B	MA	WEBSTER	81	BNB HEALTH CARE FUNDS LLC
3273	Marshall Manor West	3.5%	80.6	C	TX	Marshall	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3274	MONTEREY PALMS HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.5	A	CA	PALM DESERT	99	GRANCARE LLC
3275	LYTLE NURSING HOME	3.4%	80.5	C	TX	LYTLE	0	—
3276	Greenbrier Village Health and Rehabilitation	3.4%	80.5	A	OK	ENID	150	—
3277	FLORENTINE GARDENS	3.4%	80.5	A	OH	LOVELAND	80	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3278	Central Continuing Care	3.4%	80.5	A	NC	Mount Airy	120	—
3279	WILLOWS AT BELLEVUE	3.4%	80.5	B	OH	BELLEVUE	60	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3280	AVANTARA EVERGREEN PARK	3.4%	80.5	F	IL	EVERGREEN PARK	242	—
3281	WEST COVINA HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.4%	80.5	C	CA	WEST COVINA	97	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3282	WEST HAVEN HEALTHCARE	3.4%	80.5	B	CA	WEST COVINA	99	MAYER 2012 TRUST
3283	Perry Lutheran Homes Eden Acres Campus	3.4%	80.5	B	IA	Perry	57	—
3284	LAKES OF CLERMONT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.4%	80.5	C	FL	CLERMONT	80	COPPER FL TRUST II
3285	Peak Resources - Charlotte	3.4%	80.5	C	NC	Charlotte	142	PEAK RESOURCES INC
3286	TREMONT REHABILITATION & SKILLED CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.5	C	MA	WAREHAM	104	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
3287	CANYON SPRINGS POST-ACUTE	3.4%	80.5	B	CA	SAN JOSE	199	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3288	Woodcliff Lake Health & Rehabilitation Center	3.4%	80.5	A	NJ	WOODCLIFF LAKE	114	—
3289	Mansion Nursing and Rehab Center	3.4%	80.5	A	RI	Central Falls	62	—
3290	LINEVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.4%	80.5	A	AL	LINEVILLE	101	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3291	VANCREST HEALTH CARE CTR OF HO	3.4%	80.5	A	OH	HOLGATE	60	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
3292	BRIDGEPOINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	3.4%	80.5	B	IN	VINCENNES	80	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
3293	APERION CARE LINCOLN	3.4%	80.5	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	47	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
3294	RIM COUNTRY HEALTH & RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	3.4%	80.5	B	AZ	PAYSON	109	—
3295	Golden Age Care Center	3.4%	80.5	A	IA	Centerville	46	STEGOTEK INC
3296	PONTIAC NURSING HOME	3.4%	80.5	B	NY	OSWEGO	80	—
3297	Hayes Residence	3.4%	80.5	C	MN	SAINT PAUL	40	—
3298	Reserve at Fort Gaines of Journey LLC, The	3.4%	80.5	A	GA	FORT GAINES	60	BARRES LLC
3299	Lompoc Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	3.4%	80.5	A	CA	Lompoc	120	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
3300	IMMACULATEMARYCENTER FOR REHABILITATION&HEALTHCARE	3.4%	80.5	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	296	—

Showing 3,251–3,300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.