Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,551–3,600

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3551	Heartwood	0.6%	76.8	B	MN	CROSBY	54	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
3552	Park View Nursing Care Center	0.6%	76.8	C	TX	Muleshoe	0	—
3553	LOCH HAVEN	0.6%	76.8	C	MO	MACON	100	—
3554	LEEWAY, INC	0.6%	76.8	A	CT	NEW HAVEN	30	—
3555	VILLA CORONADO D/P SNF	0.6%	76.8	B	CA	CORONADO	122	SHARP HEALTHCARE
3556	ENTERPRISE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	76.8	B	AL	ENTERPRISE	257	—
3557	Clark Retirement Community	0.6%	76.8	C	MI	Grand Rapids	39	BHI RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
3558	BUCHANAN HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	76.8	B	GA	BUCHANAN	60	—
3559	City Creek Post Acute	0.6%	76.7	C	UT	Salt Lake City	108	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
3560	BROOKSIDE SKILLED NURSING HOSPITAL	0.6%	76.7	A	CA	SAN MATEO	96	INPATIENT CONSULTANTS OF CALIFORNIA INC
3561	PITTSBURG SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.6%	76.7	A	CA	PITTSBURG	49	—
3562	CRANEVILLE REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.7	B	MA	DALTON	89	—
3563	OAK PARK PLACE OF JANESVILLE	0.6%	76.7	D	WI	JANESVILLE	35	—
3564	BERTHA D GARTEN KETCHAM MEMORIAL CENTER	0.6%	76.7	A	IN	ODON	84	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3565	Michigan Veteran Homes at Grand Rapids	0.6%	76.7	A	MI	Grand Rapids	128	STATE OF MICHIGAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
3566	AVENUES AT LITCHFIELD	0.6%	76.7	B	IL	LITCHFIELD	65	—
3567	Tahoe Forest Hospital D/P SNF	0.6%	76.7	A	CA	Truckee	37	TAHOE FOREST HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3568	CAPSTONE HEALTHCARE OF DAINGERFIELD	0.6%	76.7	D	TX	DAINGERFIELD	0	—
3569	Katzman Family Center for Living	0.6%	76.7	A	MA	CHELSEA	123	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
3570	AVERA SISTER JAMES CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.7	D	SD	YANKTON	194	AVERA HEALTH
3571	TOMBALL REHAB & NURSING	0.6%	76.7	C	TX	TOMBALL	0	BAYLOR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3572	Bladen East Health And Rehab	0.6%	76.7	A	NC	Elizabethtown	90	—
3573	WESTOVER RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.6%	76.7	B	OH	HAMILTON	53	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
3574	STANTON COUNTY HEALTH CARE FACILITY LTCU	0.6%	76.7	A	KS	JOHNSON	25	—
3575	ALLIED SERVICES MEADE STREET SKILLED NURSING	0.6%	76.7	B	PA	WILKES BARRE	133	ALLIED SERVICES FOUNDATION
3576	EGRET COVE CENTER	0.6%	76.7	C	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
3577	WOLCOTT HALL NURSING CENTER INC	0.6%	76.7	C	CT	TORRINGTON	60	—
3578	Edenbrook Lakeside	0.6%	76.7	D	WI	MILWAUKEE	145	—
3579	TEKAKWITHA LIVING CENTER	0.6%	76.7	B	SD	SISSETON	40	COTEAU DES PRAIRIES HOSPITAL
3580	PETERSBURG MEDICAL CENTER LTC	0.6%	76.6	A	AK	PETERSBURG	15	THE PETERSBURG MEDICAL CENTER
3581	ST JOHNS NURSING CENTER	0.6%	76.6	C	FL	LAUDERDALE LAKES	181	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
3582	EASTGATE MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	76.6	C	IN	WASHINGTON	62	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3583	Muskogee Nursing Center	0.6%	76.6	C	OK	Muskogee	58	—
3584	SYLVIA G THOMPSON RESIDENCE CENTER, INC	0.6%	76.6	F	MO	SEDALIA	120	—
3585	SMP HEALTH - ST RAPHAEL	0.6%	76.6	A	ND	VALLEY CITY	170	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION HEALTH SYSTEM
3586	Lindsay Nursing & Rehab	0.6%	76.6	B	OK	Lindsay	106	—
3587	MAISON TECHE NURSING CENTER	0.6%	76.6	B	LA	JEANERETTE	121	—
3588	St Anthony Health & Rehabilitation	0.6%	76.6	C	MN	ST ANTHONY	110	—
3589	Southwind Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.6%	76.6	B	LA	Crowley	112	—
3590	Covenant Village of the Great Lakes	0.6%	76.6	C	MI	Grand Rapids	37	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
3591	CRESTVIEW HEALTH & REHAB CTR	0.6%	76.6	D	GA	ATLANTA	388	—
3592	Palmetto Patriots	0.6%	76.6	A	SC	Gaffney	52	STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA COMPTROLLER GENERAL
3593	MARY GOSS NURSING HOME	0.6%	76.6	C	LA	MONROE	91	—
3594	DEER'S HEAD CENTER	0.6%	76.6	A	MD	SALISBURY	80	STATE OF MARYLAND CENTRAL PAYROLL BUREAU
3595	Stonehenge of Springville	0.6%	76.6	C	UT	Springville	50	KANE COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIAL SERVICE DISTRICT
3596	TRUCARE LIVING CENTERS	0.6%	76.6	A	TX	PALESTINE	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
3597	LEGACY HEIGHTS NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	0.6%	76.6	B	AR	RUSSELLVILLE	122	—
3598	CLEARWATER CENTER	0.6%	76.6	D	FL	CLEARWATER	109	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
3599	NEWMAN REHAB & HEALTH CARE CTR	0.6%	76.6	B	IL	NEWMAN	60	—
3600	SMP HEALTH - ST ALOISIUS	0.6%	76.6	A	ND	HARVEY	65	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION HEALTH SYSTEM

Showing 3,551–3,600 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.