Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,701–3,750

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3701	Glenflora	0.5%	75.8	B	NC	Lumberton	52	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
3702	Brooklyn Community Estates	0.5%	75.8	A	IA	Brooklyn	50	—
3703	Shady Rest Care Center	0.5%	75.8	A	OK	Pryor	65	BGM ESTATE LLC
3704	SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WAR VETERANS HOME	0.5%	75.8	A	LA	JENNINGS	8	STATE OF LA DEPT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
3705	CAMELLIA HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.8	B	GA	CLAXTON	70	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3706	TENNOVA NEWPORT CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.5%	75.8	A	TN	NEWPORT	56	—
3707	MAJESTIC CARE OF NORTH VERNON	0.5%	75.8	B	IN	NORTH VERNON	120	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
3708	MEADOW VIEW HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.8	D	MO	HARRISONVILLE	120	HEITWELL HOLDINGS INC
3709	EAST BANK CENTER, LLC	0.5%	75.8	C	IL	LOVES PARK	54	—
3710	BIRCHWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.8	B	MN	FOREST LAKE	100	SENIOR CARE COMMUNITIES
3711	AVIR AT FREDERICKSBURG	0.5%	75.8	C	TX	FREDERICKSBURG	0	VAL VERDE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3712	CAVALIER HEALTHCARE OF ENGLAND	0.5%	75.8	B	AR	ENGLAND	70	—
3713	ST CAMILLUS RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.5%	75.8	B	NY	SYRACUSE	284	—
3714	Emerald Nursing & Rehab Cozad	0.5%	75.8	C	NE	Cozad	67	YCNE OPERATIONS LLC
3715	Arc at Kankakee	0.5%	75.8	C	IL	KANKAKEE	51	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
3716	VISTA PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.8	B	GA	DOUGLAS	168	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3717	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING EAST PRAIRIE	0.5%	75.8	B	MO	EAST PRAIRIE	52	CHP SNFCO LLC
3718	ALARIS HEALTH AT HAMILTON PARK	0.5%	75.8	C	NJ	JERSEY CITY	260	—
3719	CHOCTAW NATION NURSING HOME	0.5%	75.8	B	OK	ANTLERS	72	BGM ESTATE LLC
3720	Lawrence Street Health Care Center	0.5%	75.8	B	TX	Tomball	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3721	NEW VANDERBILT REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER, INC	0.5%	75.8	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	320	—
3722	ROYAL MEADOW VIEW CENTER	0.5%	75.8	C	MA	NORTH READING	113	—
3723	OCEANVIEW NURSING & REHABILITATION CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.8	C	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	102	—
3724	Nevins Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	75.8	B	MA	METHUEN	153	—
3725	FRANKLIN GROVE LIVING AND REHAB	0.5%	75.5	B	IL	FRANKLIN GROVE	132	MOMENTUM HEALTHCARE LLC
3726	SENATOR BEN ATCHLEY STATE VETERANS' HOME	0.5%	75.5	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	140	TENNESSEE STATE VETERANS HOME BOARD
3727	VALLEY VIEW HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.5	C	MO	MOBERLY	96	—
3728	GREENWOOD HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.5%	75.5	C	IN	GREENWOOD	185	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
3729	Kingsville Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	75.5	A	TX	Kingsville	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
3730	BATON ROUGE GEN MED CTR, SNF	0.5%	75.5	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	2	—
3731	Regency Manor Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	75.5	B	MI	Utica	39	—
3732	Vista Grande Villa	0.5%	75.5	D	MI	Jackson	60	—
3733	PAUL'S RUN	0.5%	75.5	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	119	LIBERTY LUTHERAN SERVICES
3734	NORTHAMPTON COUNTY-GRACEDALE	0.5%	75.5	D	PA	NAZARETH	688	—
3735	CUSTER CARE AND REHAB CENTER	0.5%	75.5	A	SD	CUSTER	43	—
3736	Wesley Park Centre	0.5%	75.5	C	IA	Newton	66	WESLEYLIFE
3737	DELANEY PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	75.5	B	FL	ORLANDO	89	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
3738	St Mary Health Care Center	0.5%	75.5	A	MA	WORCESTER	172	COVENANT HEALTH
3739	Maple Crest Manor	0.5%	75.5	A	IA	Fayette	46	—
3740	FAMILY CARE CENTER OF KINGSTON	0.5%	75.5	A	OK	KINGSTON	60	—
3741	Ardmore Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.5%	75.5	B	OK	ARDMORE	62	—
3742	Westbrook Acres	0.5%	75.5	A	IA	Gladbrook	54	—
3743	MEADOWBROOK HEALTHCARE	0.5%	75.5	C	NY	PLATTSBURGH	287	—
3744	PRIDE TLC THERAPY AND LIVING CAMPUS	0.5%	75.5	B	WI	WESTON	25	—
3745	OAK PARK CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.5	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	120	MLS ACQUISITION LLC
3746	Washington Veteran Home-Retsil	0.5%	75.5	B	WA	PT ORCHARD	240	WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF VETE
3747	FOUNTAIN SPRINGS AT CAPE MAY NURSING & REHAB CENTE	0.5%	75.5	B	NJ	CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE	116	—
3748	CORDOVA COMMUNITY MED LTC	0.5%	75.5	A	AK	CORDOVA	10	—
3749	JOSEPHINE CARING COMMUNITY	0.5%	75.5	B	WA	STANWOOD	160	—
3750	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - DECATUR COUNTY	0.5%	75.5	B	KS	OBERLIN	45	SANFORD

Showing 3,701–3,750 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.