Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,801–3,850

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3801	WAYNESBORO POST ACUTE & REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.1	A	TN	WAYNESBORO	109	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
3802	CLEVELAND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.1	B	TX	CLEVELAND	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3803	HERITAGE GREEN REHAB & SKILLED NURSING	0.5%	75.1	C	NY	GREENHURST	134	HERITAGE MINISTRIES CHARITABLE CARE NETWORK INC
3804	Villa St Vincent	0.5%	75.1	B	MN	CROOKSTON	100	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
3805	CEDARFIELD PINNACLE LIVING	0.5%	75.1	A	VA	RICHMOND	20	VIRGINIA UNITED METHODIST HOMES INC
3806	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at A	0.5%	75.1	A	NY	ALLEGANY	37	—
3807	PHOEBE RICHLAND HCC	0.5%	75.1	A	PA	RICHLANDTOWN	143	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
3808	ROLLING MEADOWS	0.5%	75.1	A	TX	WICHITA FALLS	2	—
3809	Fair Oaks Lodge	0.5%	75.1	C	MN	WADENA	65	—
3810	SEASONS NURSING AND REHAB	0.5%	75.1	A	OH	STOW	50	—
3811	Ebenezer Ridges Geriatric Care Center	0.5%	75.1	A	MN	BURNSVILLE	114	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3812	ST JOSEPHS PLACE	0.5%	75.1	A	NY	PORT JERVIS	46	BON SECOURS MERCY HEALTH INC
3813	Lone Tree Health Care Center Inc	0.5%	75.1	A	IA	Lone Tree	44	—
3814	COURTYARD OF NATCHITOCHES	0.5%	75.1	A	LA	NATCHITOCHES	112	—
3815	Ft. Worth Southwest Nursing Center	0.5%	75.1	D	TX	Fort Worth	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
3816	GRACE BRETHREN VILLAGE	0.5%	75.1	C	OH	ENGLEWOOD	45	—
3817	QUAPAW CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	0.5%	75.1	A	AR	HOT SPRINGS	126	—
3818	PARKWAY PLACE	0.5%	75.1	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
3819	OHIO LIVING SWAN CREEK	0.5%	75.1	B	OH	TOLEDO	34	—
3820	MONTCLAIR MANOR CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.1	B	CA	MONTCLAIR	59	—
3821	Windsor Nursing & Retirement Home	0.5%	75.1	C	MA	SOUTH YARMOUTH	120	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
3822	ORCHARD REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.5%	75.1	B	AL	HAYNEVILLE	72	—
3823	Arbor Care Centers-Countryside LLC	0.5%	75.1	C	NE	Madison	70	ARBOR CARE CENTERS LLC
3824	TRAYMORE NURSING CENTER	0.5%	75.1	D	TX	DALLAS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3825	Correctionville Specialty Care	0.5%	75.1	C	IA	Correctionville	39	CARE INITIATIVES
3826	Woodruff Manor	0.5%	75.1	C	SC	Woodruff	88	SPARTANBURG REGIONAL HEALTH SERVICES DISTRICT INC
3827	Langton Shores	0.5%	75.1	A	MN	ROSEVILLE	50	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
3828	ASCENSION LIVING SACRED HEART VILLAGE	0.5%	74.9	C	IN	AVILLA	133	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3829	HEALTH CENTRAL PARK	0.5%	74.9	C	FL	WINTER GARDEN	218	ORLANDO HEALTH INC
3830	BOLIVAR MEDICAL CENTER LTC	0.5%	74.9	A	MS	CLEVELAND	35	—
3831	HAVILAND OPERATOR, LLC	0.5%	74.9	B	KS	HAVILAND	45	—
3832	Focused Care at Fort Stockton	0.5%	74.9	C	TX	Fort Stockton	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
3833	ROLETTE COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.9	F	ND	ROLETTE	31	—
3834	Haven Homes Of Maple Plain	0.5%	74.9	A	MN	MAPLE PLAIN	64	CASSIA
3835	BROADWAY LIVING CENTER	0.5%	74.9	A	OK	LEXINGTON	101	—
3836	St. John's Health Care Corporation	0.5%	74.9	D	NY	Rochester	455	—
3837	MONTICELLO HEALTHCARE	0.5%	74.9	A	IN	MONTICELLO	102	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3838	LANDIS HOMES	0.5%	74.9	A	PA	LITITZ	103	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
3839	ARIZONA STATE VETERAN HOME-TUCSON	0.5%	74.9	A	AZ	TUCSON	120	STATE OF ARIZONA STATE DEPT OF FINANCE
3840	Southridge Specialty Care	0.5%	74.9	C	IA	Marshalltown	82	CARE INITIATIVES
3841	REGALCARE AT WORCESTER	0.5%	74.9	B	MA	WORCESTER	160	—
3842	RENAISSANCE AT THE TERRACES	0.5%	74.9	B	FL	BONITA SPRINGS	40	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3843	LAKELAND NURSING & REHAB	0.5%	74.9	C	NJ	HASKELL	201	—
3844	SHELBYVILLE MANOR	0.5%	74.9	C	IL	SHELBYVILLE	109	—
3845	MORNINGSIDE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	74.9	A	NY	BRONX	386	—
3846	Emerald Nursing & Rehab Lancaster LLC	0.5%	74.9	C	NE	Lincoln	293	—
3847	Syringa Chalet Nursing Facility	0.5%	74.9	A	ID	Blackfoot	42	—
3848	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY SCOTLAND	0.5%	74.9	B	SD	SCOTLAND	45	SANFORD
3849	THE SPRINGS OF HARRISON	0.5%	74.9	B	AR	HARRISON	90	—
3850	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY LIBERTY	0.5%	74.9	B	OH	GIRARD	79	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY LUTHERAN RETIREMENT SERVICES INC

Showing 3,801–3,850 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.