Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,151–4,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4151	Southeast Iowa Healthcare Center	2.8%	75.4	C	IA	Keokuk	55	LEXINGTON SQUARE IRREVOCABLE TRUST
4152	LAURELS OF DEKALB	2.8%	75.4	C	IN	BUTLER	101	—
4153	Twin Rivers Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.8%	75.4	B	KY	Owensboro	132	—
4154	FUTURE CARE IRVINGTON	2.8%	75.4	B	MD	BALTIMORE	200	ALVIN POWERS RESIDUARY TRUST FBO JEFFREY POWERS
4155	PONTOTOC HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	2.8%	75.4	A	MS	PONTOTOC	60	ADVANCED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
4156	ATMORE NURSING CENTER	2.8%	75.4	A	AL	ATMORE	100	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4157	Bayberry Commons	2.8%	75.4	B	RI	Pascoag	110	HEALTH CONCEPTS LTD
4158	Coastal Oaks Special Care Center	2.8%	75.4	B	CA	Atascadero	65	COMPASS HEALTH INC
4159	GOLDEN YEARS OF LAKE GENEVA	2.7%	75.3	A	WI	LAKE GENEVA	54	—
4160	OZARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.7%	75.3	A	AL	OZARK	149	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4161	RIVER PLACE NURSING CENTER	2.7%	75.3	A	MS	AMORY	60	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4162	SANDS POINT CENTER FOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.7%	75.3	C	NY	PORT WASHINGTON	180	ESTATE OF MAYER LAUFER
4163	WellBridge of Brighton	2.7%	75.3	A	MI	Howell	88	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4164	CAMINO RIDGE POST-ACUTE	2.7%	75.3	B	CA	MOUNTAIN VIEW	102	COVENANT CARE LLC
4165	REST HAVEN NURSING HOME	2.7%	75.3	A	OH	MCDERMOTT	23	—
4166	NORTH AURORA LIVING & REHAB CTR	2.7%	75.3	F	IL	NORTH AURORA	129	—
4167	GULF COAST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.7%	75.3	A	AL	MOBILE	100	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4168	ARISTACARE AT WHITING	2.7%	75.3	C	NJ	WHITING	180	—
4169	OAK KNOLL HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.7%	75.3	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	100	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4170	LINCOLN SQUARE POST ACUTE CARE	2.7%	75.3	B	CA	STOCKTON	68	NAHS HOLDING INC
4171	WellBridge of Novi	2.7%	75.3	C	MI	Novi	100	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4172	THE GREEN HOUSE COTTAGES OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS	2.7%	75.3	C	AR	BENTONVILLE	72	JEJ ASSETS LP
4173	DEANWOOD REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS CENTER	2.7%	75.3	B	DC	WASHINGTON	296	ENHANCE THERAPIES MASTER PAYCO
4174	StoneCreek Health and Rehabilitation	2.7%	75.3	C	NC	Asheville	120	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
4175	AVENUE AT MACEDONIA	2.7%	75.3	D	OH	MACEDONIA	98	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
4176	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF MERIDIAN	2.7%	75.3	B	MS	MERIDIAN	84	—
4177	HUNTSVILLE HEALTH & REHABILITATION, LLC	2.7%	75.3	A	AL	HUNTSVILLE	105	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4178	HERITAGE HALL-LEESBURG	2.7%	75.3	A	VA	LEESBURG	164	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
4179	Brookdale Trinity Towers	2.7%	75.2	C	TX	Corpus Christi	75	—
4180	Shelby Crossing Health Campus	2.7%	75.2	A	MI	Shelby Townhip	57	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
4181	White Oak Manor - Tryon	2.7%	75.2	B	NC	Tryon	70	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
4182	Harris Health Care Center North	2.7%	75.2	C	RI	Central Falls	32	—
4183	Four Chaplains Nursing Care Center	2.7%	75.2	B	MI	Westland	96	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4184	PLUM TREE CARE CENTER	2.7%	75.2	A	CA	SAN JOSE	76	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4185	ASBURY GARDENS NSG & REHAB	2.7%	75.2	B	IL	NORTH AURORA	75	—
4186	Crescent Manor Care Ctrs	2.7%	75.2	B	VT	Bennington	90	—
4187	FALMOUTH BY THE SEA	2.7%	75.2	B	ME	FALMOUTH	65	—
4188	Kendal At Longwood	2.7%	75.2	A	PA	KENNETT SQUARE	53	—
4189	THE HEIGHTS ON HUEBNER	2.7%	75.2	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	BEXAR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4190	HAMMOND NURSING HOME	2.7%	75.2	A	LA	HAMMOND	120	—
4191	AMHERST MEADOWS SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	2.7%	75.1	A	OH	MASSILLON	89	FEJCC TRUST
4192	VENETIAN CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER, THE	2.7%	75.1	F	NJ	SOUTH AMBOY	180	—
4193	MOUNDVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.7%	75.1	A	AL	MOUNDVILLE	68	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4194	Grand Avenue Rest Home	2.7%	75.1	D	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	20	—
4195	St Ann Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.7%	75.1	A	WI	MILWAUKEE	50	CHAMPION CARE LLC
4196	WELCOME NURSING HOME	2.7%	75.1	A	OH	OBERLIN	99	HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC
4197	Maple Heights	2.7%	75.1	A	IA	Mapleton	58	MAPLETON PROGRESS INC
4198	OASIS PAVILION NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.7%	75.1	C	AZ	CASA GRANDE	134	COMPASSION CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4199	Hillcrest Firethorn	2.7%	75.1	A	NE	Lincoln	72	HILLCREST HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4200	Clear Creek Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	2.7%	75.1	B	NC	Mint Hill	120	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC

Showing 4,151–4,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.