Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,201–4,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4201	ALTERNATIVE HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS LLC	2.7%	75.1	A	PR	SAN JUAN	22	—
4202	Peachtree Centre	2.7%	75.1	C	SC	Gaffney	151	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
4203	Lake Barkley Health & Rehabilitation	2.7%	75.1	B	KY	Kuttawa	65	JML 1836 HOLDINGS LLC
4204	Fiesta Park Wellness & Rehabilitation	2.7%	75.1	D	NM	Albuquerque	105	SASEM INVESTMENTS LLC
4205	CEDARCREST CARE CENTER	2.7%	75.1	B	OK	BROKEN ARROW	89	—
4206	Martin Rehabilitation Center, LLC	2.7%	75.1	B	FL	STUART	120	—
4207	ONEIDA NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.7%	75.1	C	TN	ONEIDA	56	—
4208	LINCOLN COUNTY NURSING & REHAB	2.7%	75.1	D	MO	TROY	90	—
4209	COURTYARD REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CENTER, LLC	2.7%	75.1	C	AR	EL DORADO	76	JEJ ASSETS LP
4210	Oakview Nursing Home	2.7%	75.1	A	IA	Conrad	46	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
4211	PARK RIVER HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER LL	2.7%	75.1	A	MN	COON RAPIDS	99	—
4212	Heritage Park Nursing Center	2.7%	75.0	C	CA	Upland	70	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4213	DRIFTWOOD HEALTHCARE CENTER - HAYWARD	2.7%	75.0	B	CA	HAYWARD	88	GRANCARE LLC
4214	Hopkins Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.7%	75.0	A	KY	Woodburn	50	ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
4215	LINCOLN CRAWFORD CARE CENTER	2.7%	75.0	A	OH	CINCINNATI	96	—
4216	MARLBOROUGH HILLS REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CEN	2.7%	75.0	C	MA	MARLBOROUGH	186	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
4217	VILLASPRING OF ERLANGER	2.7%	75.0	B	KY	ERLANGER	140	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4218	ALL AMERICAN VLGE NRSG & RHB	2.7%	75.0	B	IL	CHICAGO	144	WISSATI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
4219	Cascades Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.7%	75.0	D	FL	DELRAY BEACH	100	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
4220	TRENTON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	2.7%	75.0	B	TN	TRENTON	50	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
4221	NHC HealthCare - Anderson	2.7%	75.0	B	SC	Anderson	290	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
4222	MYERS NURSING & CONVALESCENT CENTER	2.7%	75.0	F	MO	KANSAS CITY	84	—
4223	PALM GARDEN OF JACKSONVILLE	2.7%	74.9	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4224	TISHOMINGO MANOR	2.7%	74.9	A	MS	IUKA	105	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
4225	CAYUGA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.7%	74.9	B	NY	ITHACA	160	—
4226	LARCHWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	2.7%	74.9	D	CO	GRAND JUNCTION	130	—
4227	GRANADA HILLS CONVALESCENT	2.7%	74.9	B	CA	GRANADA HILLS	48	—
4228	WESTERN CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	2.7%	74.9	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	129	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
4229	ORRVILLE POINTE	2.7%	74.9	A	OH	ORRVILLE	47	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
4230	EVERGREEN NURSING HOME	2.7%	74.9	A	AL	EVERGREEN	61	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4231	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE NORTH HUNTINGDON	2.7%	74.9	B	PA	NORTH HUNTINGDON	120	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4232	CROSSVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.7%	74.9	A	AL	CROSSVILLE	143	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4233	APPLE REHAB AVON	2.7%	74.9	C	CT	AVON	60	—
4234	DINUBA HEALTHCARE	2.7%	74.9	A	CA	DINUBA	97	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
4235	ASPIRE PHYSICAL RECOVERY CENTER AT HOOVER, LLC	2.7%	74.9	B	AL	HOOVER	118	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4236	PREMIER WASHINGTON REHABILITATION AND NURSING CTR	2.7%	74.9	B	PA	WASHINGTON	288	CRESTVIEW 360 HOLDINGS LLC
4237	PEARL OF ELGIN, THE	2.7%	74.9	C	IL	ELGIN	139	REG 2018 IRREVOCABLE TRUST U A D 1 1 18
4238	Rosewood Post Acute	2.7%	74.9	C	CA	PLEASANT HILL	113	9560 PICO LLC
4239	SIERRA VIEW CARE CENTER	2.7%	74.9	B	CA	BALDWIN PARK	98	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
4240	LITTLE BROOK NURSING AND CONVALESCENT HOME	2.7%	74.9	C	NJ	CALIFON	36	—
4241	LANDMARK OF ACADIANA	2.7%	74.9	A	LA	SAINT MARTINVILLE	124	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
4242	PITTSFIELD MANOR	2.7%	74.9	D	IL	PITTSFIELD	89	—
4243	CARE CENTER OF LAUREL	2.7%	74.9	A	MS	LAUREL	120	—
4244	SENATH SOUTH HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.7%	74.9	B	MO	SENATH	150	—
4245	STONE PEAR PAVILION	2.7%	74.9	C	WV	CHESTER	60	ORCHARDS FAMILY MANAGEMENT LLC
4246	FULTON CENTER FOR REHABILITATION LLC	2.7%	74.9	D	GA	ATLANTA	109	STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
4247	CAREONE AT RIDGEWOOD AVENUE	2.7%	74.9	B	NJ	PARAMUS	110	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
4248	CARE AND REHAB - BOSCOBEL	2.7%	74.9	B	WI	BOSCOBEL	50	—
4249	BLYTHE POST ACUTE LLC	2.7%	74.9	B	CA	BLYTHE	48	MERIDIAN MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
4250	EPSOM HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.7%	74.8	A	NH	EPSOM	108	ESNH LLC

Showing 4,201–4,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.