Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,251–4,300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4251	SOUTH DADE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.7%	74.8	B	FL	MIAMI	180	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
4252	BATH MANOR SPECIAL CARE CENTRE	2.7%	74.8	B	OH	AKRON	130	SABER HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
4253	LANDMARK CARE AND REHABILITATION	2.7%	74.8	C	WA	YAKIMA	93	HYATT FAMILY FACILITIES LLC
4254	Acacia Health Center	2.7%	74.8	A	AZ	PHOENIX	78	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
4255	CARRIAGE HILL HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	2.7%	74.8	A	VA	FREDERICKSBURG	150	DJ PETRINE LLC
4256	PINES AT BRISTOL FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION, THE	2.7%	74.8	B	CT	BRISTOL	132	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
4257	GARDENS AT EASTON, THE	2.7%	74.8	B	PA	EASTON	181	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
4258	SMITH MEDICAL NURSING CARE CTR	2.7%	74.8	B	GA	SANDERSVILLE	56	—
4259	Regency at Lansing West	2.7%	74.8	B	MI	Lansing	120	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
4260	WellBridge of Rochester Hills	2.7%	74.8	B	MI	Rochester Hills	100	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4261	Brio of Johnston, LLC	2.7%	74.8	B	IA	Johnston	36	WESLEYLIFE
4262	Greentree of Hubbell Rehabilitation and Health	2.7%	74.8	B	MI	Hubbell	55	—
4263	JOHN SCOTT HOUSE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.7%	74.8	A	MA	BRAINTREE	138	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4264	BREWER CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION, LLC	2.7%	74.8	B	ME	BREWER	111	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
4265	Marshall Health Care And Rehab	2.7%	74.8	B	ME	MACHIAS	64	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
4266	SOUTH COAST GLOBAL MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	2.7%	74.7	A	CA	SANTA ANA	46	KPC HEALTHCARE INC
4267	MANOR OF GRANDE VILLAGE	2.7%	74.7	C	OH	TWINSBURG	88	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4268	STRONGSVILLE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	2.7%	74.7	D	OH	STRONGSVILLE	99	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
4269	Meadow Green Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.7%	74.7	B	MA	WALTHAM	123	A FRANCHI CONTRACTORS INC
4270	FOUR WINDS MANOR	2.7%	74.7	B	WI	VERONA	44	—
4271	STERLING PLACE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.7%	74.7	A	LA	BATON ROUGE	144	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
4272	Westland, A Villa Center	2.7%	74.7	C	MI	Westland	230	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
4273	SUN MAR NURSING CENTER	2.7%	74.7	A	CA	ANAHEIM	69	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
4274	COUNTRY MANOR LA MESA HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.7%	74.7	A	CA	LA MESA	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
4275	ALDEN TERRACE CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	2.6%	74.6	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	210	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4276	LAS FLORES CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	2.6%	74.6	C	CA	GARDENA	144	PACIFIC HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
4277	Evergreen Manor Senior Care Center	2.6%	74.6	B	MI	Battle Creek	91	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4278	FOXWOOD SPRINGS LIVING CENTER	2.6%	74.6	C	MO	RAYMORE	108	OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
4279	VINTAGE FAIRE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.6	A	CA	MODESTO	99	COVENANT CARE LLC
4280	Waterview Lodge Llc, Rehabilitation & Healthcare	2.6%	74.6	A	MA	ASHLAND	103	—
4281	Coventry House Inn	2.6%	74.6	A	MI	St Joseph	32	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
4282	SPLIT ROCK REHABILITION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.6	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
4283	GRENADA LIVING CENTER	2.6%	74.6	B	MS	GRENADA	90	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
4284	AYERS NURSING HOME	2.6%	74.6	A	OK	SNYDER	97	—
4285	MS CARE CENTER OF ALCORN COUNTY, INC-SNF	2.6%	74.6	B	MS	CORINTH	119	—
4286	CLARA MANOR NURSING HOME	2.6%	74.6	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	90	—
4287	ELIZABETH CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.6	A	WV	ELIZABETH	36	ECC TRUST
4288	CONCORD CARE CENTER OF TOLEDO	2.6%	74.6	B	OH	TOLEDO	84	—
4289	ASPIRE PHYSICAL RECOVERY CENTER AT CAHABA RIVER	2.6%	74.6	B	AL	VESTAVIA	120	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4290	HAVEN MANOR HEALTH CARE CENTER, L L C	2.6%	74.6	C	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	240	—
4291	WHITTIER PACIFIC CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.6	B	CA	WHITTIER	105	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
4292	CHARLESTON MANOR	2.6%	74.5	C	MO	CHARLESTON	120	—
4293	CERES POSTACUTE CARE	2.6%	74.5	B	CA	CERES	46	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
4294	COVINGTON COURT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.5	A	AR	FORT SMITH	140	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4295	Shoreline Care Center	2.6%	74.5	C	CA	Oxnard	193	COVENANT CARE LLC
4296	COQUINA CENTER	2.6%	74.5	A	FL	ORMOND BEACH	120	LCE PARTNERS LLC
4297	MOULTRIE CREEK NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.6%	74.5	A	FL	SAINT AUGUSTINE	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4298	WINDSOR THE RIDGE REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.5	A	CA	SALINAS	103	9560 PICO LLC
4299	THE PAVILION AT SUNNY HILLS	2.6%	74.5	C	CA	FULLERTON	300	—
4300	DESTINATION HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.5	D	FL	DESTIN	119	—

Showing 4,251–4,300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.