Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,301–4,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4301	ELMWOOD CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.5	A	CA	BERKELEY	74	HYCARE INC
4302	VILLAGE SQUARE HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.6%	74.5	A	CA	SAN MARCOS	118	GRANCARE LLC
4303	Mon Valley Care Center	2.6%	74.5	B	PA	MONONGAHELA	60	—
4304	WATERVIEW HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	2.6%	74.5	C	VA	HAMPTON	130	HLHK IRREVOCABLE TRUST
4305	Madison Grove Post Acute	2.6%	74.5	A	CA	Redlands	243	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
4306	Pleasant View Care Center	2.6%	74.5	A	IA	Whiting	70	—
4307	Alaris Health at The Chateau	2.6%	74.5	C	NJ	ROCHELLE PARK	251	—
4308	CLEAR CREEK CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.5	B	CO	WESTMINSTER	80	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
4309	CRESTVIEW NURSING & RESIDENTIAL LIVING	2.6%	74.5	A	KS	SENECA	34	—
4310	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE WASHINGTON PA	2.6%	74.5	C	PA	WASHINGTON	120	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4311	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE FAIRVIEW PARK	2.6%	74.5	A	OH	FAIRVIEW PARK	118	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4312	BAYSIDE CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.5	B	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	92	FL SNF TRUST I
4313	TOWER LODGE CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.5	C	NJ	WALL	60	—
4314	White Oak Manor - Columbia	2.6%	74.5	B	SC	Columbia	120	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
4315	AVANTE AT OCALA, INC	2.6%	74.5	A	FL	OCALA	133	AG HOLDINGS INC
4316	INDIANSPRING OF OAKLEY	2.6%	74.4	D	OH	CINCINNATI	144	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4317	COUNTRY OAKS CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.4	B	CA	POMONA	81	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
4318	HAMILTON TRACE OF FISHERS	2.6%	74.4	C	IN	FISHERS	108	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
4319	Cedar Mountain Post Acute	2.6%	74.4	A	CA	Yucaipa	99	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
4320	RENAISSANCE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.4	B	NY	STAATSBURG	120	—
4321	PREMIER ESTATES OF PAWNEE, LLC	2.6%	74.4	F	NE	PAWNEE CITY	64	—
4322	ALHAMBRA HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE, LP	2.6%	74.4	C	CA	ALHAMBRA	97	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
4323	TARKIO REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE	2.6%	74.4	C	MO	TARKIO	95	—
4324	ATLANTIC SHORES NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.6%	74.4	A	FL	MELBOURNE	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4325	Community Care Center	2.6%	74.4	A	IA	Stuart	65	—
4326	CANTERBURY AT CEDAR GROVE	2.6%	74.4	F	NJ	CEDAR GROVE	180	—
4327	FOWLER CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.4	A	CA	FOWLER	46	AJC HEALTHCARE LLC
4328	FRANCISCAN POST-ACUTE CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.4	A	CA	MERCED	71	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
4329	CRESTLINE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.6%	74.4	A	OH	CRESTLINE	30	—
4330	RIVERSIDE HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.4	B	GA	COVINGTON	159	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
4331	BELPRE LANDING NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.6%	74.4	B	OH	BELPRE	62	—
4332	CHULIO HILLS HEALTH AND REHAB	2.6%	74.4	D	GA	ROME	100	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
4333	PINE RIDGE SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	2.6%	74.4	B	OH	MORROW	50	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
4334	AVIATA AT NORTH FLORIDA	2.6%	74.4	C	FL	GAINESVILLE	120	—
4335	CENTENNIAL POST ACUTE	2.6%	74.4	C	AK	ANCHORAGE	102	—
4336	BROWN NURSING HOME	2.6%	74.4	A	AL	ALEXANDER CITY	68	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4337	Colonial Manors of Columbus Community	2.6%	74.3	C	IA	Columbus Junction	39	—
4338	Peak Resources - Alamance, Inc	2.6%	74.3	B	NC	Graham	142	PEAK RESOURCES INC
4339	PARK TERRACE CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.3	B	NY	CORONA	200	—
4340	BURGESS SQUARE HEALTHCARE CTR	2.6%	74.3	A	IL	WESTMONT	203	—
4341	Oakpointe Senior Care and Rehab Center	2.6%	74.3	B	MI	Detroit	106	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4342	MORNINGSIDE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.3	A	NY	BRONX	386	—
4343	Midlands Living Center L L C	2.6%	74.3	B	IA	Council Bluffs	94	—
4344	Kimes Nursing and Rehab LLC	2.6%	74.3	C	OH	ATHENS	61	—
4345	WOODBINE REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.6%	74.3	B	VA	ALEXANDRIA	307	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
4346	The Highlands at Owasso	2.6%	74.3	A	OK	Owasso	105	—
4347	Plaza Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	2.6%	74.3	C	NJ	ELIZABETH	128	—
4348	DAYSPRING OF MIAMI VALLEY HLTH CARE CENTER & REHAB	2.6%	74.3	B	OH	FAIRBORN	133	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4349	ST MARY'S CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	2.6%	74.3	C	NJ	CHERRY HILL	215	—
4350	MAPLEWOOD OF SAUK PRAIRIE	2.6%	74.2	B	WI	SAUK CITY	107	—

Showing 4,301–4,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.