Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,351–4,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4351	Avina of Sun Prairie	2.6%	74.2	A	WI	Sun Prairie	50	—
4352	Harvest Manor Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	2.6%	74.2	C	LA	Denham Springs	171	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
4353	Heritage Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.6%	74.2	B	MI	Detroit	122	—
4354	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF CASCADE PARK	2.6%	74.2	A	WA	VANCOUVER	88	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
4355	LAKE HAVEN NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.6%	74.2	F	FL	DUNEDIN	104	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
4356	CEDAR HILL HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.2	C	PA	CORAOPOLIS	150	GEM FAMILY 2020 NGCG NEVADA TRUST
4357	COURTYARD AT SEASONS	2.6%	74.2	A	OH	CINCINNATI	45	NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE INCOME OPERATING PARTNERSHIP LP
4358	Belmont Terrace Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.6%	74.2	B	KY	Florence	151	ENCORE INVESTORS LLC
4359	VIVO HEALTHCARE WINTER HAVEN	2.6%	74.2	C	FL	WINTER HAVEN	120	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC
4360	NORTHPARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION OF CASCADIA	2.6%	74.2	C	AZ	PHOENIX	54	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
4361	FOREST HAVEN NURSING & REHAB CTR, LLC	2.6%	74.2	A	LA	JONESBORO	139	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
4362	Father Murray, A Villa Center	2.6%	74.2	C	MI	Center Line	231	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
4363	SURREY PLACE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	2.6%	74.2	A	FL	BRADENTON	74	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
4364	BISHOP MCCARTHY CENTER FOR REHAB & HEALTHCARE	2.6%	74.2	B	NJ	VINELAND	182	—
4365	EVERGREEN LIVING CENTER AT STAGECOACH	2.6%	74.2	B	AR	BRYANT	116	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4366	GARDEN CREST REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.2	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	72	—
4367	HUDSON SPRINGS NURSING AND REHAB	2.6%	74.2	B	OH	STOW	80	YFR EQUITIES LLC
4368	FOOTHILL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	2.6%	74.2	A	CA	TUSTIN	42	CHAMBER INC
4369	AVENUE AT BROOKLYN	2.6%	74.1	C	OH	BROOKLYN	111	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
4370	SAGE POST ACUTE	2.6%	74.1	C	CA	HAYWARD	99	—
4371	SUNNYVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.1	C	PA	BUTLER	220	—
4372	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF EUFAULA	2.6%	74.1	A	AL	EUFAULA	180	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4373	William R Courtney Texas State Veterans Home	2.6%	74.1	A	TX	Temple	160	CARE INNS OF TEXAS TEMPLE LTD
4374	WellBridge of Clarkston	2.6%	74.1	B	MI	Clarkston	100	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4375	The Hurlbut	2.6%	74.1	C	NY	Rochester	160	—
4376	ASHBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.1	F	NJ	SCOTCH PLAINS	114	—
4377	PALMETTO CARE CENTER AND REHAB	2.6%	74.1	B	FL	HIALEAH	90	FL SNF TRUST I
4378	WINDSOR HOUSE AT CHAMPION	2.6%	74.1	A	OH	CHAMPION	100	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
4379	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF CITRONELLE	2.6%	74.1	A	AL	CITRONELLE	69	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4380	White Oak Estates	2.6%	74.1	B	SC	Spartanburg	88	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
4381	WINDSOR HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.0	A	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	58	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
4382	VI AT SILVERSTONE, A VI AND PLAZA COMPANIES COMMUN	2.6%	74.0	A	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	24	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4383	TRANSCENDENT HEALTHCARE OF BOONVILLE	2.6%	74.0	F	IN	BOONVILLE	102	MAJOR HOSPITAL
4384	WINSLOW CAMPUS OF CARE	2.6%	74.0	C	AZ	WINSLOW	119	—
4385	St. George Rehabilitation	2.6%	74.0	A	UT	St. George	99	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
4386	MOUNTAIN VILLA NURSING CENTER	2.6%	74.0	B	TX	EL PASO	0	—
4387	AMBER MANOR CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.0	B	IN	PETERSBURG	64	TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
4388	WALKER REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	2.6%	74.0	F	AL	CARBON HILL	59	—
4389	CHASE CITY HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	2.6%	74.0	A	VA	CHASE CITY	120	DJ PETRINE LLC
4390	The Californian	2.6%	74.0	C	CA	Santa Barbara	68	—
4391	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF HENDERSON	2.6%	74.0	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4392	Oakview Skilled Nursing	2.6%	74.0	A	CA	Thousand Oaks	48	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
4393	HARDIN HOME	2.6%	74.0	A	TN	SAVANNAH	39	—
4394	SOCIAL CIRCLE NSG & REHAB CTR	2.6%	74.0	B	GA	SOCIAL CIRCLE	65	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
4395	EAST HAVEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.0	A	NY	BRONX	200	ISAAC E GOLDBRENNER ESTATE
4396	HERITAGE HALL - LAUREL MEADOWS	2.6%	74.0	A	VA	LAUREL FORK	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
4397	OAK CREEK TERRACE INC	2.6%	74.0	A	OH	KETTERING	69	CONCEPT REHAB INC
4398	MAPLE VIEW HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	74.0	B	CT	ROCKY HILL	120	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
4399	THE CROSSING AT RIVERSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATIO	2.6%	74.0	A	AR	SEARCY	138	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4400	VI AT PALO ALTO	2.6%	74.0	A	CA	PALO ALTO	44	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP

Showing 4,351–4,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.