Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,401–4,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4401	THE HERITAGE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.6%	74.0	C	NY	BROOKLYN	79	—
4402	MAPLE GROVE NURSING & REHAB CENTER	2.6%	74.0	A	VA	LEBANON	60	MCCLINTIC OPERATIONS HOLDCO II LLC
4403	Clarksville Skilled Nursing & Rehab Center	2.6%	73.9	A	IA	Clarksville	42	—
4404	WellBridge of Pinckney	2.6%	73.9	B	MI	Pinckney	100	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4405	ACCESS MENTAL HEALTH	2.6%	73.9	F	KS	PEABODY	45	—
4406	INTERCOMMUNITY HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	73.9	B	CA	NORWALK	86	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4407	Anamosa Care Center	2.6%	73.9	A	IA	Anamosa	64	JOHN W GRUBB TRUST
4408	Forest Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.6%	73.9	A	LA	COVINGTON	172	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
4409	BRIA OF RIVER OAKS	2.6%	73.9	C	IL	BURNHAM	309	WHEAT CHAFF LP
4410	Northville Manor	2.6%	73.9	C	MI	Northville	37	—
4411	Kanawha Community Home, INC.	2.6%	73.9	A	IA	Kanawha	26	—
4412	CADIA REHABILITATION BROADMEADOW	2.5%	73.8	C	DE	MIDDLETOWN	120	LONG TERM CARE CORP
4413	HERITAGE MANOR OF OPELOUSAS	2.5%	73.8	A	LA	OPELOUSAS	109	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
4414	DELAWARE VALLEY SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION C	2.5%	73.8	A	PA	MATAMORAS	70	GEORGE S REPCHICK 2020 FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
4415	SHATTUCK NURSING CENTER	2.5%	73.8	B	OK	SHATTUCK	60	—
4416	AVENUE AT MEDINA	2.5%	73.8	B	OH	MEDINA	70	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
4417	EVERSTEAD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.8	D	AL	RUSSELLVILLE	50	GNH IRRV TR
4418	CEDAR VALLEY NSG & REHAB CTR	2.5%	73.8	A	GA	CEDARTOWN	100	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
4419	HAWTHORNE HOUSE	2.5%	73.8	B	ME	FREEPORT	83	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
4420	WILLOWBROOKE CT SKILLED CARE CTR AT MAGNOLIA TRACE	2.5%	73.8	A	AL	HUNTSVILLE	59	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4421	NORTHWOODS REHAB AND NURSING CENTER AT MORAVIA	2.5%	73.8	B	NY	MORAVIA	40	—
4422	IMPERIAL CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.8	D	CA	STUDIO CITY	130	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4423	JESMOND NURSING HOME	2.5%	73.8	A	MA	NAHANT	57	—
4424	Walter Reed Post Acute	2.5%	73.8	B	VA	GLOUCESTER	181	GEORGE S MITCHELL JR RVOC TR
4425	Sabine Retirement and Rehab Center	2.5%	73.8	B	LA	MANY	116	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4426	Courtyard Health Care Center	2.5%	73.8	A	CA	Davis	112	COVENANT CARE LLC
4427	MCALESTER NURSING & REHAB	2.5%	73.8	B	OK	MCALESTER	63	—
4428	Mississippi Valley	2.5%	73.8	A	IA	Keokuk	83	LEXINGTON SQUARE IRREVOCABLE TRUST
4429	Astoria Healthcare Center	2.5%	73.8	C	CA	SYLMAR	218	SAINT CABRINI HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
4430	The Villa at Great Lakes Crossing	2.5%	73.8	B	MI	Detroit	96	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
4431	LYNWOOD REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.5%	73.8	A	AL	MOBILE	127	M MELB OPCO LLC
4432	Advanced Health Care Of Hanover	2.5%	73.8	C	PA	BETHLEHEM	46	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4433	HILLCREST HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.5%	73.7	B	TN	ASHLAND CITY	95	—
4434	HEATHER KNOLL RETIREMENT VILLAGE	2.5%	73.7	A	OH	TALLMADGE	115	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4435	BURBANK PARKE CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.7	A	OH	BURBANK	81	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
4436	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL & NURSING HOME	2.5%	73.7	—	MN	CROOKSTON	24	—
4437	NORWALK SKILLED NURSING & WELLNESS CENTRE, LLC	2.5%	73.7	C	CA	NORWALK	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
4438	BAYVIEW CENTER	2.5%	73.7	A	FL	EUSTIS	120	LCE PARTNERS LLC
4439	AUTUMN HILLS HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.7	A	CA	GLENDALE	92	GRANCARE LLC
4440	Mary Free Bed Sub-Acute Rehabilitation	2.5%	73.7	B	MI	Grand Rapids	48	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
4441	HERITAGE HALL GRUNDY	2.5%	73.7	A	VA	GRUNDY	120	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
4442	The Dawn Hill Home for Rehab and Healthcare	2.5%	73.7	C	RI	Bristol	133	DASAY 2019 TRUST
4443	PUGET SOUND CARE	2.5%	73.7	A	WA	OLYMPIA	108	CORNERSTONE 18 OPERATIONS LLC
4444	LEDGECREST HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.7	B	CT	KENSINGTON	60	—
4445	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT MILFORD	2.5%	73.7	C	CT	MILFORD	120	ESNH LLC
4446	LEE MANOR	2.5%	73.6	C	IL	DES PLAINES	262	DOROTHY VANGEL QSS TRUST
4447	Morganfield Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.5%	73.6	A	KY	Morganfield	60	—
4448	Cabarrus Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.5%	73.6	D	NC	Concord	120	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
4449	Palolo Chinese Home	2.5%	73.6	B	HI	HONOLULU	113	—
4450	SURGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC	2.5%	73.6	C	NY	MIDDLE ISLAND	164	—

Showing 4,401–4,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.