Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,451–4,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4451	RENAISSANCE CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.6	B	IL	CANTON	120	—
4452	Old Mill Rehabilitation	2.5%	73.6	B	NE	Omaha	44	—
4453	HILLSPRING HEALTH CARE & REHAB	2.5%	73.6	B	OH	SPRINGBORO	140	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4454	Avir at Tierra Este	2.5%	73.6	D	TX	EL PASO	0	—
4455	UPTOWN CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.6	B	CO	DENVER	79	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
4456	Franklin-Simpson Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.5%	73.6	B	KY	Franklin	98	—
4457	THE VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.5%	73.6	C	CA	HEMET	54	STRINGER FAMILY PARTNERSHIP
4458	Paul Oliver Memorial Hospital LTCU	2.5%	73.6	A	MI	Frankfort	35	MUNSON HEALTHCARE
4459	LINDEN CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.5%	73.6	B	NY	BROOKLYN	280	ALLURE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4460	SEAGATE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.5%	73.6	C	NY	BROOKLYN	360	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
4461	Cedar Ridge Village	2.5%	73.6	C	IA	West Des Moines	40	WSG LLC
4462	VI AT LAKESIDE VILLAGE	2.5%	73.6	B	FL	LANTANA	60	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4463	Caretel Inns of Brighton	2.5%	73.6	B	MI	Brighton	60	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
4464	ISLAND LAKE CENTER	2.5%	73.5	A	FL	LONGWOOD	120	LCE PARTNERS LLC
4465	BEAUMONT REHAB & SKILLED NURSING CTR - NATICK	2.5%	73.5	C	MA	NATICK	53	CONTINUING CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4466	CADIA REHABILITATION SILVERSIDE	2.5%	73.5	B	DE	WILMINGTON	116	LONG TERM CARE CORP
4467	RAE ANN SUBURBAN	2.5%	73.5	B	OH	WESTLAKE	95	RA OPCO LLC
4468	GREEN VILLAGE SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION LTD	2.5%	73.5	C	OH	AKRON	69	VRC MANAGEMENT INC
4469	Ambrosio Guillen Texas State Veterans Home	2.5%	73.5	A	TX	El Paso	160	CARE INNS OF TEXAS TEMPLE LTD
4470	FLORIDEAN HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.5	A	FL	MIAMI	90	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
4471	CADIA REHABILITATION CAPITOL	2.5%	73.5	C	DE	DOVER	120	LONG TERM CARE CORP
4472	AVIATA AT THE GARDENS - TALLAHASSEE	2.5%	73.5	D	FL	TALLAHASSEE	109	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
4473	THE MERIDIAN	2.5%	73.5	B	TX	GALVESTON	0	—
4474	MEADOWBROOK MANOR - NAPERVILLE	2.5%	73.5	D	IL	NAPERVILLE	249	DOROTHY VANGEL QSS TRUST
4475	RIVER WALK CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.5	B	CA	PORTERVILLE	99	MAGNOLIA HEALTH CORPORATION
4476	Gateway Vista	2.5%	73.5	B	NE	Lincoln	80	PARAGON MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4477	BEDFORD CARE CTR-MONROE HALL	2.5%	73.5	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	80	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
4478	TEMPLE CITY HEALTHCARE	2.5%	73.5	A	CA	TEMPLE CITY	59	MAYER 2012 TRUST
4479	PIKEVILLE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.5%	73.5	A	KY	Pikeville	106	WELLSKY CORPORATION
4480	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF PETAL	2.5%	73.5	A	MS	PETAL	60	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
4481	CREEKVIEW SKILLED NURSING	2.5%	73.5	A	CA	PLEASANTON	73	SPIEKER CLC LLC
4482	NHC HEALTHCARE, TULLAHOMA	2.5%	73.5	A	TN	TULLAHOMA	90	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
4483	LOVELAND CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.5	B	OH	LOVELAND	89	CENTRAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS INC
4484	TWIN OAKS CENTER	2.5%	73.5	C	MA	DANVERS	101	—
4485	HEAVENER NURSING & REHAB	2.5%	73.5	A	OK	HEAVENER	84	—
4486	APERION CARE ELGIN	2.5%	73.5	C	IL	ELGIN	101	DAVID A BERKOWITZ DELTA TRUST
4487	LORD CHAMBERLAIN MANOR	2.5%	73.4	C	CT	STRATFORD	60	—
4488	Mission Point Health Campus of Jackson	2.5%	73.4	C	MI	Jackson	50	MISSION POINT MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
4489	THE LODGE OF SAGINAW HEALTH AND WELLNESS	2.5%	73.4	F	TX	SAGINAW	0	ML LLC
4490	CHATEAU LIVING CENTER	2.5%	73.4	D	LA	KENNER	215	MEDICO LLC
4491	ENGLEWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.4	A	AL	MONROEVILLE	87	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4492	LOS ALTOS POST-ACUTE	2.5%	73.4	A	CA	LOS ALTOS	152	COVENANT CARE LLC
4493	PLANTATION MANOR NURSING AND REHAB CENTER, LLC	2.5%	73.4	A	LA	WINNSBORO	135	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
4494	BENTLEY CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.4	A	FL	NAPLES	84	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4495	Avina of Fond du Lac	2.5%	73.4	B	WI	Fond du Lac	50	—
4496	Mountain Ridge Rehabilitation and Healthcare Cente	2.5%	73.4	B	NC	Black Mountain	97	WW HEALTHCARE CONSULTANTS LLC
4497	ENVIVE OF BROOKVILLE	2.5%	73.4	D	IN	BROOKVILLE	100	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4498	WHEAT STATE MANOR	2.5%	73.3	B	KS	WHITEWATER	65	GRACE TEAM LLC
4499	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE GETTYSBURG	2.5%	73.3	C	PA	GETTYSBURG	135	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4500	AVANTE AT ST CLOUD INC	2.5%	73.3	A	FL	SAINT CLOUD	131	AG HOLDINGS INC

Showing 4,451–4,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.