Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,001–5,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5001	Bayview Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	70.4	A	NC	New Bern	60	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5002	BROWARD NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	70.3	B	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	198	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
5003	BURLINGTON CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	2.1%	70.3	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	124	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
5004	McLaren Lapeer Region	2.1%	70.3	A	MI	Lapeer	19	MCLAREN HEALTH CARE CORPORATION
5005	Edgewater Health and Rehabilitation	2.1%	70.3	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	67	COLAVRIA HOSPITALITY INC
5006	RANCHO MIRAGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	70.3	B	CA	RANCHO MIRAGE	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
5007	WOODLAND COUNTRY MANOR INC	2.1%	70.3	A	OH	SOMERVILLE	60	—
5008	GILROY HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.1%	70.3	A	CA	GILROY	134	COVENANT CARE LLC
5009	Pinecrest Center for Rehabilitation and Healing	2.1%	70.3	B	FL	NORTH MIAMI	100	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
5010	Argentine Care Center	2.1%	70.3	A	MI	Linden	60	—
5011	GARDNER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	70.3	D	KS	GARDNER	82	—
5012	MORRIS NURSING HOME	2.1%	70.3	A	OH	BETHEL	18	—
5013	The Graybrier Nursing and Retirement Center	2.1%	70.3	A	NC	Trinity	128	CANYON MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS INC
5014	MONTCARE AT POTOMAC	2.1%	70.3	A	MD	POTOMAC	168	MD3 OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
5015	St. John's Hospital Camarillo D/P SNF	2.1%	70.3	B	CA	Camarillo	99	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
5016	ZERBE SISTERS NURSING CENTER,	2.1%	70.3	A	PA	NARVON	87	—
5017	COLONIAL PARK MANOR	2.1%	70.3	C	OK	OKEMAH	80	THE DONNA RENEE SIMMONS REVOCABLE TRUST DATED DECEMBER 17 2012
5018	CHIPPEWA MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.1%	70.3	A	WI	CHIPPEWA FALLS	50	—
5019	Villa Mesa Care Center	2.1%	70.3	B	CA	Upland	99	RENEW HEALTH CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
5020	COLONIAL NURSING CENTER OF ROCKFORD	2.1%	70.3	B	OH	ROCKFORD	34	—
5021	CRESTWOOD TREATMENT CENTER	2.1%	70.3	A	CA	FREMONT	88	—
5022	METHODIST TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER-DESOTO LLC	2.1%	70.3	C	TX	DESOTO	100	—
5023	Compere NH Inc	2.1%	70.3	A	MS	JACKSON	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
5024	ST ANDREWS	2.1%	70.3	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	59	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
5025	HAVEN NURSING CENTER	2.1%	70.3	A	LA	COLUMBIA	99	—
5026	OHMAN FAMILY LIVING AT BLOSSOM	2.1%	70.3	C	OH	HUNTSBURG	76	—
5027	QUAIL RIDGE LIVING CENTER, INC	2.1%	70.2	A	OK	COLCORD	120	—
5028	White Oak At North Grove Inc	2.1%	70.2	A	SC	Spartanburg	132	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
5029	AUBURN SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	2.1%	70.2	B	OH	SALEM	44	—
5030	SEQUOIA VISTA	2.1%	70.2	A	CA	VISALIA	99	—
5031	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF MOBILE	2.1%	70.2	A	AL	MOBILE	148	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
5032	PREFERRED CARE AT WALL	2.1%	70.2	B	NJ	ALLENWOOD	135	—
5033	Wellington Parc of Owensboro	2.1%	70.1	B	KY	Owensboro	80	—
5034	The Pines at Rutland Center for Nursing & Rehabili	2.1%	70.1	C	VT	Rutland	125	BNB HEALTH CARE FUNDS LLC
5035	SIERRA BASIN POST ACUTE	2.1%	70.1	B	NV	CARSON CITY	80	—
5036	MEADOWBROOK ACRES	2.1%	70.1	A	WV	CHARLESTON	60	NURSING CARE MANAGEMENT OF AMERICA
5037	Coastal View Healthcare Center	2.1%	70.1	B	CA	Ventura	96	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
5038	LEWIS COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT	2.1%	70.1	B	MO	CANTON	118	—
5039	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME OF GUTHRIE, LLC	2.1%	70.1	B	OK	GUTHRIE	125	HMLC LLC
5040	CYPRESS GARDEN CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB	2.1%	70.1	B	NY	FLUSHING	278	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
5041	Chatham Nursing & Rehabilitation	2.1%	70.1	B	NC	Elkin	99	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5042	ST MARY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	2.1%	70.1	C	PA	LANSDALE	120	—
5043	NORRIDGE GARDENS	2.1%	70.1	D	IL	NORRIDGE	292	—
5044	The Woodleigh of Baton Rouge	2.1%	70.1	B	LA	Baton Rouge	120	DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE LLC
5045	SANCTUARY WADSWORTH	2.1%	70.1	A	OH	WADSWORTH	79	—
5046	Wheatland Manor	2.1%	70.1	A	IA	Wheatland	44	—
5047	Good Samaritan Society - Colonial Villa	2.1%	70.1	B	NE	Alma	53	SANFORD
5048	PRAIRIEVIEW AT THE GARLANDS	2.1%	70.1	A	IL	BARRINGTON	20	—
5049	BEACHSIDE POST ACUTE	2.1%	70.1	A	CA	LONG BEACH	90	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
5050	Wellspring Lutheran Services	2.1%	70.1	A	MI	Fairview	39	LUTHERAN HOMES OF MICHIGAN INC

Showing 5,001–5,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.