Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,951–5,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4951	Fairfield Village Rehabilitation	2.2%	70.6	B	UT	Layton	40	—
4952	PALM GARDEN OF LARGO	2.2%	70.6	B	FL	LARGO	140	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4953	SPACE COAST HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	70.6	F	FL	MERRITT ISLAND	120	—
4954	ST FRANCIS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	2.2%	70.6	C	PA	DARBY	273	—
4955	STAMFORD CARE CENTER	2.2%	70.6	C	CT	STAMFORD	156	—
4956	ARCADIA CARE PEORIA HEIGHTS	2.2%	70.6	F	IL	PEORIA HEIGHTS	110	—
4957	ANBERRY POST ACUTE	2.2%	70.6	A	CA	MERCED	120	DG 2016 HOLDINGS TRUST DATED SEPTEMBER 14 2016
4958	CORNELL HALL CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	70.6	F	NJ	UNION	177	—
4959	AVIATA AT SOUTH DAYTONA	2.2%	70.6	C	FL	SOUTH DAYTONA	65	—
4960	Wolfe County Health & Rehabilitation Center	2.2%	70.6	A	KY	Campton	100	SEKY HOLDING CO
4961	NHC HEALTHCARE, SCOTT	2.2%	70.6	B	TN	LAWRENCEBURG	49	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
4962	SENECA HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.2%	70.6	C	NY	WEST SENECA	160	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
4963	PALM GARDEN OF TAMPA	2.2%	70.6	A	FL	TAMPA	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4964	RIDGEVIEW HEALTH SERVICES, INC	2.2%	70.6	B	AL	JASPER	148	KELLEY HEALTH HOLDINGS INC
4965	HERITAGE REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	70.6	D	CA	TORRANCE	161	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
4966	Medford Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	2.2%	70.6	B	MA	MEDFORD	142	ARB II HOLDINGS LLC
4967	Stonebrook Post Acute	2.2%	70.6	C	CA	CONCORD	120	—
4968	Vi at Grayhawk, a Vi and Plaza Companies Community	2.2%	70.6	A	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	36	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4969	COURTYARDS OF ORLANDO CARE CENTER AND REHAB	2.2%	70.6	A	FL	ORLANDO	120	FL SNF TRUST I
4970	CARROLL HEALTHCARE CENTER INC	2.2%	70.6	A	OH	CARROLLTON	52	JCTH HOLDINGS INC
4971	WILLOW CREEK RETIREMENT CENTER	2.2%	70.5	A	MS	BYRAM	88	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4972	EDENBROOK AT HAMPTON	2.2%	70.5	B	PA	WILKES BARRE	104	—
4973	PINNACLE HEALTH & REHAB AT SANFORD	2.2%	70.5	B	ME	SANFORD	86	—
4974	SIERRA RIDGE HEALTH AND WELLNESS SUITES	2.2%	70.5	C	NV	RENO	141	—
4975	PALMS CARE CENTER AND REHAB	2.2%	70.5	B	FL	LAUDERDALE LAKES	120	FL SNF TRUST I
4976	TLC NURSING CENTER	2.2%	70.5	B	AL	ONEONTA	103	QUALITY CARE REHAB INC
4977	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE NORTH RIDGEVILLE	2.2%	70.5	B	OH	NORTH RIDGEVILLE	150	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4978	SUNNYVIEW CARE CENTER	2.2%	70.5	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	93	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
4979	Fordsville Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	70.5	B	KY	Fordsville	67	—
4980	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT NORWALK	2.1%	70.5	D	CT	NORWALK	150	—
4981	PARKVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.1%	70.5	B	CA	ANAHEIM	41	—
4982	GAINESVILLE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	2.1%	70.5	B	VA	GAINESVILLE	120	DJ PETRINE LLC
4983	CRESTMONT NORTH NURSING HOME	2.1%	70.5	A	OH	LAKEWOOD	71	BHP MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4984	Prince George Healthcare Center	2.1%	70.5	A	SC	Georgetown	148	PALMETTO HEALTH CARE LLC
4985	ENFIELD REHAB & HEALTH CARE CT	2.1%	70.5	C	IL	ENFIELD	47	—
4986	Magnolia Village Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	70.5	A	KY	Bowling Green	60	ENCORE INVESTORS LLC
4987	VERRAZANO NURSING AND POST-ACUTE CENTER	2.1%	70.4	C	NY	STATEN ISLAND	120	—
4988	JUNIPER VILLAGE AT BUCKS COUNTY REHAB AND SKD CARE	2.1%	70.4	B	PA	BENSALEM	17	JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
4989	Hope Springs at Minnetonka	2.1%	70.4	D	MN	MINNETONKA	21	—
4990	CAMDEN POSTACUTE CARE, INC	2.1%	70.4	B	CA	CAMPBELL	60	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
4991	PALM GARDEN OF GAINESVILLE	2.1%	70.4	A	FL	GAINESVILLE	150	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4992	FAIRACRES MANOR, INC.	2.1%	70.4	A	CO	GREELEY	116	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
4993	RIVERWOOD CENTER	2.1%	70.4	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	240	LCE PARTNERS LLC
4994	BRADFORD HOUSE NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	2.1%	70.4	B	AR	BENTONVILLE	97	—
4995	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT NEW BRITAIN	2.1%	70.4	C	CT	NEW BRITAIN	282	—
4996	Golden Age Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	70.4	C	LA	DENHAM SPRINGS	175	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
4997	Montesano Health-Rehab Center	2.1%	70.4	A	WA	MONTESANO	94	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
4998	Woodbriar Nursing Home	2.1%	70.4	A	AR	Harrisburg	80	CARE MANAGEMENT INC
4999	OAKPARK HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.1%	70.4	B	CA	TUJUNGA	49	CITRUS ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES INC
5000	Park View Nursing Care Center	2.1%	70.4	C	TX	Muleshoe	0	—

Showing 4,951–5,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.