Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,901–4,950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4901	Brighton Bay Center for Rehabilitation and Healing	2.2%	71.0	C	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	120	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
4902	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT AZALEA TRACE	2.2%	71.0	A	FL	PENSACOLA	24	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4903	SILVER SPRINGS CARE CENTER	2.2%	71.0	A	CT	MERIDEN	159	APEX ADVISORS
4904	EL RANCHO VISTA HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.2%	71.0	B	CA	PICO RIVERA	86	—
4905	LAKEVIEW NURSING CENTER	2.2%	71.0	A	MS	GULFPORT	105	—
4906	Tierra Pines Center	2.2%	71.0	A	FL	LARGO	120	LCE PARTNERS LLC
4907	Patriot Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.2%	71.0	B	TN	PARIS	127	TN3 OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
4908	Villages of Lake Highlands	2.2%	71.0	A	TX	Dallas	126	VILLAGE SENIOR CARE LLC
4909	THE WATERS OF ROBERTSON, LLC	2.2%	71.0	F	TN	SPRINGFIELD	120	—
4910	COURTLAND, LLC	2.2%	71.0	A	MD	BALTIMORE	151	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
4911	TANGLEWOOD NURSING & REHABILITATION	2.2%	70.9	D	KS	TOPEKA	54	—
4912	Medical Center Convalescent Hospital	2.2%	70.9	A	CA	San Bernardino	99	—
4913	PINE HAVEN HOME	2.2%	70.9	B	NY	PHILMONT	128	—
4914	WILLOW PASS HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.2%	70.9	A	CA	CONCORD	81	HYCARE INC
4915	NHC Healthcare - Parklane	2.2%	70.9	A	SC	Columbia	106	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
4916	NEW ALBANY HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	2.2%	70.9	B	MS	NEW ALBANY	114	ADVANCED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
4917	RICHMOND CTR FOR REHAB AND SPECIALTY HEALTHCARE	2.2%	70.9	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	372	—
4918	HAVENS AT PENSACOLA, THE	2.2%	70.9	A	FL	PENSACOLA	120	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC
4919	RIVERSIDE NURSING & REHAB CTR	2.2%	70.9	F	WA	CENTRALIA	91	—
4920	CRESTWOOD TERRACE	2.2%	70.9	F	IL	CRESTWOOD	126	—
4921	PALM GARDEN OF WINTER HAVEN	2.2%	70.8	B	FL	WINTER HAVEN	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4922	Greenville Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.2%	70.8	C	NC	Greenville	120	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
4923	WACHUSETT MANOR	2.2%	70.8	A	MA	GARDNER	96	—
4924	BELL CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	2.2%	70.8	C	CA	BELL	99	—
4925	WellBridge of Romeo	2.2%	70.8	A	MI	Romeo	124	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4926	WINDSOR LANE HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.2%	70.8	A	OH	GIBSONBURG	89	—
4927	DEER MEADOWS REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	70.8	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	206	—
4928	COMMUNITY CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	70.8	B	CA	RIVERSIDE	162	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
4929	ROYAL NURSING CENTER, LLC	2.2%	70.8	C	MA	FALMOUTH	121	—
4930	Central Guest House Healthcare & Rehabilitation Ce	2.2%	70.8	B	LA	Baton Rouge	170	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
4931	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF PARADISE	2.2%	70.8	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4932	FRENCH PARK CARE CENTER	2.2%	70.8	B	CA	SANTA ANA	202	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
4933	JACKSON HEALTH CARE FACILITY	2.2%	70.8	A	AL	JACKSON	91	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4934	CAREGIVERS OF PLEASANT GROVE, INC	2.2%	70.8	C	AL	PLEASANT GROVE	64	—
4935	PRATTVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.2%	70.8	A	AL	PRATTVILLE	162	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4936	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF NEWTON	2.2%	70.7	A	MS	NEWTON	60	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
4937	PALACE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER, THE	2.2%	70.7	C	NJ	MAPLE SHADE	165	—
4938	INTEGRITY HC OF HERRIN	2.2%	70.7	C	IL	HERRIN	49	—
4939	Town Hall Estates	2.2%	70.7	F	TX	Hillsboro	138	—
4940	RIDGEVIEW LIVING COMMUNITY	2.2%	70.7	F	MO	MALDEN	96	—
4941	BETHEL HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.2%	70.7	C	CT	BETHEL	161	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
4942	LINCOLN PARK RENAISSANCE	2.2%	70.7	B	NJ	LINCOLN PARK	189	—
4943	DELMAR CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	2.2%	70.7	B	NY	DELMAR	120	—
4944	VISTA MANOR HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	70.7	D	FL	TITUSVILLE	120	FDZ CONSULTING LLC
4945	BRIGHTON PLACE NORTH	2.2%	70.7	C	KS	TOPEKA	34	—
4946	Parkwood Village	2.2%	70.7	D	TX	BEDFORD	0	VILLAGE SENIOR CARE LLC
4947	SAINT JOSEPH CARE CENTER	2.2%	70.7	B	OH	LOUISVILLE	60	—
4948	HIGHLANDS LAKE CENTER	2.2%	70.7	A	FL	LAKELAND	179	LCE PARTNERS LLC
4949	Northridge Village	2.2%	70.6	A	IA	Ames	38	WSG LLC
4950	Paradigm at The Pines	2.2%	70.6	D	TX	SILSBEE	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER

Showing 4,901–4,950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.