Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,851–4,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4851	BLAIRE HOUSE OF WORCESTER	2.3%	71.3	A	MA	WORCESTER	75	ESSEX GROUP INCORPORATED
4852	Peak Resources-Cherryville	2.2%	71.2	A	NC	Cherryville	70	PEAK RESOURCES INC
4853	APERION CARE DOLTON	2.2%	71.2	D	IL	DOLTON	88	FREDERICK S FRANKEL TRUST
4854	Holt Senior Care and Rehab Center	2.2%	71.2	A	MI	Holt	101	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4855	BROOKSIDE CARE STRATEGIES	2.2%	71.2	D	IN	MUNCIE	42	—
4856	THE LINGENFELTER CENTER	2.2%	71.2	A	AZ	KINGMAN	88	ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
4857	Liberty Commons Nursing & Rehabilitation Center of	2.2%	71.2	B	NC	Burlington	122	LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
4858	BRIAR HILL REST HOME	2.2%	71.2	B	MS	FLORENCE	60	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4859	GRACE BRETHREN VILLAGE	2.2%	71.2	C	OH	ENGLEWOOD	45	—
4860	EXCEL CARE CENTER	2.2%	71.2	A	FL	TAMPA	120	FL SNF TRUST I
4861	AVON PLACE HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.2%	71.2	A	OH	AVON	91	—
4862	APPLE VALLEY POST-ACUTE REHAB	2.2%	71.1	A	CA	SEBASTOPOL	95	NAHS HOLDING INC
4863	PEARL AT FORT LAUDERDALE REHABILITATION AND NURSIN	2.2%	71.1	D	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	206	MD FRIEDMAN FAMILY 2017 TRUST
4864	LAKEVIEW NURSING & REHAB	2.2%	71.1	A	OK	EUFAULA	70	—
4865	Hickory Ridge of Temperance	2.2%	71.1	B	MI	Temperance	88	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
4866	LAKE VIEW CARE CENTER	2.2%	71.1	F	MT	BIGFORK	83	—
4867	PALM GARDEN OF VERO BEACH	2.2%	71.1	B	FL	VERO BEACH	189	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4868	WEST VOLUSIA HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	71.1	B	FL	DELTONA	120	FDZ CONSULTING LLC
4869	The Lodge at Mills River	2.2%	71.1	A	NC	Mills River	50	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
4870	ROYAL NORWELL NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	2.2%	71.1	D	MA	NORWELL	86	—
4871	GATEWAY HEALTH AND REHAB	2.2%	71.1	C	GA	CLEVELAND	60	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
4872	August Healthcare at Richmond	2.2%	71.1	B	VA	RICHMOND	32	—
4873	GLENHAVEN HEALTHCARE	2.2%	71.1	B	CA	GLENDALE	52	—
4874	The Cardinal at North Hills	2.2%	71.1	C	NC	Raleigh	15	—
4875	COUNTRY POINTE	2.2%	71.1	B	OH	WOOSTER	42	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
4876	WHITE PLAINS CENTER FOR NURSING CARE, L L C	2.2%	71.1	B	NY	WHITE PLAINS	88	EMM HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
4877	SAVOY AT FORT LAUDERDALE REHABILITATION AND NURSIN	2.2%	71.1	C	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	116	MD FRIEDMAN FAMILY 2017 TRUST
4878	LOCHEARN NURSING HOME, LLC	2.2%	71.1	A	MD	BALTIMORE	200	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
4879	ROCKY MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER	2.2%	71.0	F	MT	HELENA	101	—
4880	HUNTINGTON PARK NURSING CENTER	2.2%	71.0	B	CA	HUNTINGTON PARK	99	COVENANT CARE LLC
4881	Sunrise Terrace Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	2.2%	71.0	A	IA	Winfield	46	—
4882	Hillcrest Nursing Home	2.2%	71.0	A	CA	San Bernardino	59	—
4883	Montello Manor	2.2%	71.0	B	ME	LEWISTON	37	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
4884	MAGNOLIA RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	71.0	B	FL	GAINESVILLE	223	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
4885	AVENUE AT WOOSTER	2.2%	71.0	A	OH	WOOSTER	82	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
4886	SENATOBIA HEALTHCARE & REHAB	2.2%	71.0	B	MS	SENATOBIA	106	—
4887	RIVIERA HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.2%	71.0	B	CA	PICO RIVERA	154	—
4888	FRESH RIVER HEALTHCARE	2.2%	71.0	A	CT	EAST WINDSOR	140	GLOBAL WORLD INVESTORS
4889	PICKERSGILL RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	2.2%	71.0	A	MD	TOWSON	43	—
4890	VI AT LA JOLLA VILLAGE	2.2%	71.0	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	60	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4891	Ascension Oaks Nursing & Rehab Center	2.2%	71.0	B	LA	GONZALES	102	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
4892	WEST COVINA MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	2.2%	71.0	A	CA	WEST COVINA	33	—
4893	HERITAGE MANOR	2.2%	71.0	B	CA	MONTEREY PARK	99	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
4894	BEECHWOOD HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	71.0	A	CT	NEW LONDON	60	WACHUSETT VENTURES LLC
4895	PALM GARDEN OF OCALA	2.2%	71.0	B	FL	OCALA	180	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4896	OCEANVIEW NURSING & REHABILITATION CARE CENTER	2.2%	71.0	C	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	102	—
4897	WEST HARTFORD HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	71.0	A	CT	WEST HARTFORD	160	—
4898	QUEENS NASSAU REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.2%	71.0	A	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	200	—
4899	MAIN WEST POSTACUTE CARE	2.2%	71.0	A	CA	TURLOCK	99	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
4900	Bethany Home	2.2%	71.0	B	WI	Waupaca	100	—

Showing 4,851–4,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.