Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,801–4,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4801	BRIA OF GENEVA	2.3%	71.5	C	IL	GENEVA	107	WHEAT CHAFF LP
4802	PERRY COUNTY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.5	B	AR	PERRYVILLE	95	—
4803	FRANKLIN CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	2.3%	71.5	A	NY	FLUSHING	320	—
4804	LEE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	2.3%	71.5	A	VA	PENNINGTON GAP	110	DJ PETRINE LLC
4805	HIBBARD SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.5	B	ME	DOVER FOXCROFT	93	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
4806	RADFORD HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	2.3%	71.5	C	VA	RADFORD	90	DJ PETRINE LLC
4807	ROBERTSDALE REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CTR	2.3%	71.5	A	AL	ROBERTSDALE	152	BALL HEALTHCARE SERVICE INC
4808	BIRCHWOOD CARE CENTER	2.3%	71.5	A	OH	HAMILTON	75	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4809	ELIZABETH NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.3%	71.5	A	NJ	ELIZABETH	102	—
4810	LAKE CITY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.5	B	FL	LAKE CITY	113	FDZ CONSULTING LLC
4811	HARMONY HEALTH CENTER	2.3%	71.5	A	FL	MIAMI	203	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
4812	MILTON REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.3%	71.5	D	PA	MILTON	138	—
4813	Hyden Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.3%	71.5	B	KY	Hyden	94	SEKY HOLDING CO
4814	Presbyterian Home Of South Carolina-Columbia	2.3%	71.5	A	SC	Lexington	22	PRESBYTERIAN COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
4815	PEAKS CARE CENTER, THE	2.3%	71.5	B	CO	LONGMONT	84	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
4816	THE CENTER AT PARMER	2.3%	71.5	C	TX	AUSTIN	80	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
4817	SAN LEANDRO HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.3%	71.5	A	CA	SAN LEANDRO	62	HYCARE INC
4818	South Valley Care Center LLC	2.3%	71.5	A	NM	Albuquerque	58	—
4819	MAPLE WINDS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.3%	71.5	C	PA	PORTAGE	50	—
4820	NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER AT GOOD SHEPHERD	2.3%	71.5	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	120	—
4821	The Villa at City Center	2.3%	71.5	C	MI	Warren	152	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
4822	REHABILITATION CENTER OF ORLANDO	2.3%	71.5	C	FL	ORLANDO	120	FDZ CONSULTING LLC
4823	HARBOR HOUSE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.5	A	MA	HINGHAM	142	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4824	CONCOURSE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER INC	2.3%	71.5	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
4825	The Summit of Bettendorf	2.3%	71.5	C	IA	Bettendorf	39	WESLEYLIFE
4826	EASTLAND SUBACUTE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.4	C	CA	EL MONTE	139	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4827	WARREN BARR GOLD COAST	2.3%	71.4	F	IL	CHICAGO	271	—
4828	SCANDINAVIAN HOME INC	2.3%	71.4	A	RI	CRANSTON	74	—
4829	STONESPRING OF VANDALIA	2.3%	71.4	B	OH	DAYTON	144	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4830	GARDEN GROVE POST ACUTE	2.3%	71.4	A	CA	GARDEN GROVE	99	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
4831	The Lev At town Park	2.3%	71.4	C	TX	Houston	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
4832	Fair Haven Home Inc	2.3%	71.4	B	NC	Bostic	30	—
4833	St Joseph of Harahan	2.3%	71.4	B	LA	Harahan	206	MEDICO LLC
4834	Litchford Falls Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.3%	71.4	D	NC	Raleigh	90	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
4835	CHERRY HILL REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.3%	71.4	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	117	BALL HEALTHCARE SERVICE INC
4836	TRINITY REGIONAL REHAB CENTER	2.3%	71.4	A	FL	TRINITY	120	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
4837	AMBERWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.3%	71.4	B	AR	BENTON	101	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4838	Crystal Bluffs Rehabilitation and Health Care Cent	2.3%	71.4	A	NC	Morehead City	92	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
4839	MAGNOLIA HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.4	A	AL	TUSKEGEE	111	—
4840	Boundary County Nursing Home	2.3%	71.4	A	ID	Bonners Ferry	20	—
4841	Clearview Home	2.3%	71.3	A	IA	Mount Ayr	82	—
4842	Rockdale Healthcare Center	2.3%	71.3	A	GA	CONYERS	103	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
4843	SABAL PALMS HEALTH & REHABILITATION	2.3%	71.3	A	FL	LARGO	244	JOHN B GOODMAN 2006 IRRV GRANTOR TR
4844	SEMINOLE CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.3	B	OK	SEMINOLE	106	OKLAHOMA ACQUISITIONS LLC
4845	Dimondale Nursing Care Center	2.3%	71.3	B	MI	Dimondale	150	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4846	APPLE REHAB COLCHESTER	2.3%	71.3	D	CT	COLCHESTER	60	—
4847	LOGAN ELM HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.3%	71.3	A	OH	CIRCLEVILLE	99	NURSING CARE MANAGEMENT OF AMERICA
4848	VIVO HEALTHCARE FORT PIERCE	2.3%	71.3	B	FL	FORT PIERCE	79	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC
4849	WESTGATE CENTER FOR REHAB & ALZHEIMERS CARE	2.3%	71.3	A	ME	BANGOR	65	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
4850	BENTWOOD NURSING & REHAB	2.3%	71.3	D	MO	FLORISSANT	116	—

Showing 4,801–4,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.